Earnings...

jamessk

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I am new to the trading game and was wondering if anyone can give me some tips on working out a companies potential earnings. What I mean is... Vodafone for example are releasing their earnings on 19th May...

Is there anyway to determine if the earnings are going to be above or below expectations??
Is there a strategy or way in which I can work this out??

Thanks in advance for your assistance!
 
You could look at market share and compare against earnings of other businesses in the same sector...:confused:

I doubt you're going to get anything concrete without a nice bit of insider trading mate and if you do that you wont be spending any of the pounds you made when you're locked up lol.
 
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I like to but based on "forecasers" projections. If these are exceeded you will see a rise!

I looked at Punch Taverns a few weeks ago. Went down 19p to 97p the week before. Forecated profits £33million. Once announced the shares nealry doubled in a week.

Look at Premier Foods. Forecasted profits on tomorrows trading statement. Profits last year 2.8% -forecasted for 2009 12.2%. Analysts forecast profits of £171 million against a loss of £403million in 2008!

Buy today - tommorw may be too late.

Everyone gotta eat and Mr Kipling makes exceedlingly good cakes!

Now watch me lose my shirt ! lol
 
Forecasters!!! They are minions of the anti-christ. Nice brown envelope under the table to those b*stards and the world is your oyster lol.

I reckon they work backwards lol.
 
A lot of the time the stock will not move after the figures are announced on just the headline numbers it is genrally the statement accompanying them and the outlook that will bring the big move.

Eg profit for the year beat "analyst" guesses but the statement says that in recent weeks there has been a rise in the cost of flour and a slight slowdown in sales.... shares are going nowhere but down.

Hope this helps and doesn't confuse your methods, just trying to show that there's a bigger picture.
 
Other companies who have announced will already have the expected rise in commodities reflected in their share prices. My idea is better :cheesy:
 
Makes me wonder whether I will ever be trading on any more than my gut feeling and KNOWN facts which as has been said is already factored into the price anyway.

Let's see tomorrow with PFD though!
 
Premier foods....numbers look ok, and statement says profit in line woth expectations.

So if it's as expected it may be in the price as there's less hinting towards continued expansion/growth.

Also reading the statement this paragraph caught my eye.

Grocery


Sales for the first four months of the year were 6% ahead of the same period in
2008.Whilst our sales volume growth in the UK has been held back by an element
of destocking by some retailers
, our brands overall have gained volume market
share. Total branded volumes in the UK grocery market remain firm but the
consumer environment continues to be competitive with an increased focus on
value. Sales for the Irish business are broadly flat with currency translation
benefits offsetting lower volumes.

May be me being picky but that hints at a slowdown if retailers are ordering less....negative?
 
looks like you got that one right. PFd hasnt done much on opening and statement is a lot of hot air. No real news either way.

I will hang in til I get back from hols!
 
Whilst our sales volume growth in the UK has been held back by an element of destocking by some retailers our brands overall have gained volume market share.


I'd say they're saying retailers are keeping less stock in case of a slow down. Any premier foods closing stock held by retailers would have been sales for PF.

Theyre saying they've sold a bigger share of less overall so I'd be comparing to others in the same sector and seeing how the reports match up

IMO budget foods will perform well once unemployment starts really kicking in.
 
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