is it my inexpereience or is crude going to go through the roof?

samills70 · May 10, 2009

The reason I ask this is due to this announcement:

arabianights · May 10, 2009

My personal feeling is that all commodities are going to go through the roof rather soon as people are finally beginning to wake up to the coming inflation storm.

However, your announcement means diddly squat tbh. Watch how oil reacts to these kinds of news to help see if it's in a bull market yet or not (I can't answer that as I'm not an oil trader but it seems that way to me, although a lot of the movements recently could be in sympathy with equities for all I know).

shadowninja · May 10, 2009

Inflation storm? End of recession due? Should I re-mortgage my house and put it on RBS? Or just black? Are Winky and Badger right?

Pound foolish · May 11, 2009

shadowninja said:
Inflation storm? End of recession due? Should I re-mortgage my house and put it on RBS? Or just black? Are Winky and Badger right?

Winky is right; Badger got it all wrong!

I had noticed Oil price edging up and my BP shares were, until last week going down!

Who knows what will happen. By Oil ETC if you want a ride!

elitejets · May 11, 2009

The equity rally and the possibility that it might be real means that all the $$ that has been pumped into the US economy is very inflationary. Weaker USD dollar and stronger commodity prices.
Crude has been shaking off bad news for weeks, high inventory numbers and weak demand forecasts. It has broken out of a range it was stuck in for months and we are back at prices not seen since November and will probably be touching $60 any day.
Of course if house prices continue to fall and the jobs situation worsen we could get stag deflation but lets not go there ...

I dont think your story has anything to do with crude prices though, it is just the Venezualan Govt protecting its revenue sources.

GammaJammer · May 11, 2009

If anything I would have thought it's a small negative. Oil exporters are incentivised to a certain extent by high prices, whereas the government has a more complex equation to balance. But in reality previous posters are right - probably means b*gger all in the short term.

GammaJammer · May 11, 2009

Russian banks stress tests - interesting quick read - talks of ability to withstand $25 oil (Urals crude in their case). That made no dent in the price action when it came out either......

Still worth a read though imho.

GJ

Interfax: Stress test indicates Russian banks able to withstand deepening crisis

Technically Fundamental · May 11, 2009

I thought oil was rising on speculation of increased demeand due to the "recovery" after 50 being constantly broken when the indices were low but IMHO if you really wanna know whats going on with oil you need to check the futures.

gooseman · May 11, 2009

what are the futures telling us then sage of liverpool.

HaloTrader · May 11, 2009

Do i need to understand all this to become a succesful trader... It scares me.

Technically Fundamental · May 11, 2009

I dunno mate but some forecast must be keeping the price afloat if GJs stress test didnt dent the market

samills70 · May 11, 2009

Let me put this forward, perhaps it's because too many people only trade mechanically instead of fundamentally. In the book "meetings with wizards" Ed Seykota was amazed at how much fundamentals simpley don't impact the market and he was even seeing this back in the 60's.

But here's an idea perhaps if we immediately followed hour long special "Britney Spears gets her nails done" with 10 seconds of stress test results perhaps they would have impacted the market?

N Rothschild · May 11, 2009

Aaronmalins said:
I thought oil was rising on speculation of increased demeand due to the "recovery" after 50 being constantly broken when the indices were low but IMHO if you really wanna know whats going on with oil you need to check the futures.

your an idiot

GammaJammer · May 11, 2009

Don't hold back G - you'll get nowhere till you learn to say what you're really thinking mate.....

gooseman · May 11, 2009

Genics said:
your an idiot

can't teach that sort of banter

Technically Fundamental · May 11, 2009

Genics said:
your an idiot

Thanks mate
A little more constructive next time if you would

GammaJammer · May 11, 2009

gooseman said:
can't teach that sort of banter

Actually, I now have an image in my head of a night school class for dealing room banter. That's it - that's my big idea. For all these noobs that want to get dealing floor jobs, we could have like a sort of 'finishing school' for dealers. Correct use of the term 'you f**king muppet', and 'screens don't deal sunshine'. That sort of thing.

You in Goose?

gooseman · May 11, 2009

i was referring to the spelling/grammar in calling someone an idiot and getting basic english wrong....but those classes sound good. Deal me in "you tart". Like that? I'm getting into the swing already

Technically Fundamental · May 11, 2009

So am I wrong in thinking that current prices can be influenced by massive trading in the futures?

I understand the contradiction but I was under the assumption that the market value is nothing more than what people are willing to pay at any given moment.

N Rothschild · May 11, 2009

gooseman said:
i was referring to the spelling/grammar in calling someone an idiot and getting basic english wrong....but those classes sound good. Deal me in "you tart". Like that? I'm getting into the swing already

basic english wrong, do you mean English?

is it my inexpereience or is crude going to go through the roof?

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