I'm confused...

Technically Fundamental

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Being an accountant I've been watching this banks story quite closely. Any one with a bit of common sense would know that any business, bank or no, would have closed down if it was running with operating losses running into the billions. It's not feasible. Therefore, all the banks losses had to have been the writing off of bad debts ie the amount of sub prime loans sold on for which remuneration (financial at least) had yet to be recieved and the writing off of the overvalued assets ie the amount of of sub prime loans they held that they thought they could hide.

This means that in the years that they made the "losses" they will pay no tax. I'm also sure that they'll have some ex PwC/GT consultant working around the clock to see how much corporate rollback relief they can claim on their gains. This means they can offset this years loss against the previous years profit and claim back the tax paid.

So basically, all the fat cats got fatter after creating false wealth. Then they claimed government money when they got caught. Now they will claim back the tax on their lies.

So when the world leaders are at the G20 summit purportedly sorting this mess out, why is it that they just decide to say a really big number to the public and then do this:

From reuters

"HARSH WORDS
The G20 leaders said the measures agreed to would raise world output by 4 percent by the end of 2010, although they were hazy on the amount of stimulus spending to date, with estimates ranging between $2 trillion and $5 trillion.
They agreed to triple the IMF's resources to $750 billion and to a package worth $250 billion over two years to support global trade flows, which are forecast to fall 9 percent this year.
The leaders of the world's richest and biggest economies, which account for more than 80 percent of world trade, also agreed to tighten rules on tax havens, hedge funds and credit rating agencies.
Markets took the big headline $1.1 trillion figure in their stride but were perhaps cheered more by the fact there was no dramatic outcomes after harsh words on the eve of the summit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
A split had threatened to emerge between Washington, which wants more money pumped into economies to stimulate a return to growth, and France and Germany who favour tighter regulations of the financial industry.
"We expected a lot of discord between the U.S. and U.K. and France and Germany, with China poking its nose in as well, but they seem to come out of the event as one connected group, seemingly on the same page," said Dwyfor Evans, currency strategist with State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong.
"It implies that there is policy coordination and not policy discord," he said.
Some reaction to the G20 outcome was more sceptical.
"For now at least the trillions of unmovable, over-valued and mismarked loans that continue to sit on the balance sheets of the world's banks are forgotten. It's amazing what a winning smile and some collective handshakes can do," said Sean Keane, managing director of Triple T Consulting in New Zealand and a former Credit Suisse strategist.
The generally positive G20 tone came as a U.S. accounting standards board decided to allow banks more flexibility in how they value the toxic assets that forced billions of dollars in write-downs. [ID:nN02355900] The changes, to take effect in the second quarter, could reduce writedowns and soften the blow to bank earnings.
The G20 reaction also helped mask disappointment at the decision by the European Central Bank to cut its main financing rate by half the expected 50 basis points, to 1.25 percent. Investors shrugged off their disappointment, some betting more cuts were on the way.
But there has also been plenty of bleak news quantifying the human cost of the global crisis.
On Thursday, data showed the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits was at its highest level in 26 years.
The number of jobless seeking assistance also rose sharply in Spain in March and euro zone unemployment jumped to 8.5 percent in February.
The U.S. March unemployment data is expected to show that the economy shed 650,000 nonfarm jobs in March and that the unemployment rate climbed to 8.5 percent, which would be the highest level since 1983."

Personally, I think think that in the scheme of things, this action is comparable to a working man deciding to phone up a debt consolidation company off of the TV. Or maybe
doing an equity release plan on his mortgaged house.

Now, I know some of you are smart-a*ses and that other work in banks etc and as I don't have any experience in advanced global macro-economics or geo-politics I'm just wondering what you guys think of all this. What is it that they're tring to achieve?
 
When you say "what are they trying to achieve?" are you referring specifically to relaxing the accounting standards?

If so, the idea is that a lot of assets are being marked-to-market, which is a big drop in value, potentially making banks insolvent. By relaxing the standard, the banks are able to "mark-to-model", basically deciding what they think these assets will be worth in the future.

The banks argue that the asset prices are depressed to unrealistically low levels, due to illiquidity (though a lot of stuff is still trading). The obvious counter-argument is that the banks have a bad record on valuing this stuff, as well as a huge incentive to over-value it (since this may save them from bankruptcy).
 
Ok i see. But wouldn't a strategy for economic revival based on the marked-to-market values make a lot more sense?
Seems to me they just want things to go back to the way they were and no real change is going to occur.

This just means that banks can continue creating false wealth and jeopardising economies.
 
Aaronmarlins, you can organize with protestors and ask them to riot at specific banks or whatever that is under fat cats even they still get help from government. hopefully sooner the fat cats wont be able to suck so much innocent money..? lulz
 
I care :)

It seems to me that they are trying to achieve cheap credit regardless of the consequences - they are just trying to get the banks to lend cheaply again.

This all stems from 1929 which they are using as the benchmark to avoid. Here the Fed starved off all money supply - this in turn caused the depression in the 30s because banks wouldn't lend (or would but it was so expensive it wasn't worth borrowing). So now they are pumping money into the system based on the theory that 'it's not a perfect solution but it's better than the alternative' - i.e. better than not putting any cash in and causing a depression. I also think that media and political pressures make the governments do (or be seen to do) more than they did a few decades back. People like a a government that takes action - the public hates a wait and see attitude and wants results immediately.

This puts us in a bit of nomans land because never before has the world pumped so much money into the financial system. It is, therefore, possible that providing as much relief to the system as they have may be detrimental in the long run.

Take this analogy, if you are the driver in a car going round a corner and the car begins to skid what options have you got?

1) Do nothing and crash (depression in 1930s, what we wish to avoid)
2) Turn towards the skid at an appropriate rate so as to regain control (what we are trying to achieve)
3) In a complete panic, turn towards the skid like crazy causing the car to skid in the opposite direction in a greater magnitude than the previous skid (what we may achieve)

The question is, are we set for path 2 or path 3?
 
Ok i see. But wouldn't a strategy for economic revival based on the market-to-market values make a lot more sense?
Seems to me they just want things to go back to the way they were and no real change is going to occur.

I agree with you - I think governments (and obviously banks) are keen to avoid bank failures or full nationalisation, even if the banks in question are insolvent. That's why most of the plans seen so far appear to be stealth subsidies, or attempts to inflate asset prices.
 
But where is the money coming from? Is it digital/fake money or hard currency?

I'm starting to think they arent actually doing what they're telling us they're doing in the news. It's absurd.
 
I'm not sure if this is entirely correct but the money is fake money backed by the future earnings (GDP) of a country's economy. Which is why inflation pressures could creep in as the future earnings declines and money supply increases in the short-mid term.
 
So it's a carol vorderman equity release plan off of the sky tv adverts

Except instead of releasing equity that currently exists, they're pre-releasing anticipated future equity. It's like a tax which redistributes wealth from the future to the present - fortunately people in the future aren't around yet to vote, otherwise I doubt they'd be impressed.
 
What exactly qualifies these people to make these sorts decisions again?

The only way we can fix the economy is if we only let old-skool post war tight fisted Japanese men make the decisions.
 
Interesting thread... I'm not really clued up on economics but it sounds crazy that they can just tap into future earnings like that? Surely thats creating more poverty for the future!? Shame they can't travel back in time and correct all their mistakes! Did anyone see that video clip of Danial Hannan slating Gordon Brown? He said that basically the UK is in negative equity with each child born owing £20k, and that servicing the interest on that debt will cost more than educating the child. It really is a dyer situation we are in and it is all down to greed. Its just a crying shame that those most greedy have walked away very wealthy and those who had nothing to do with it will be left to pay the price.

Sam.
 
"What is it that they're tring to achieve?"

Remain in power and improve their own positions.
 
Interesting thread... I'm not really clued up on economics but it sounds crazy that they can just tap into future earnings like that? Surely thats creating more poverty for the future!? Shame they can't travel back in time and correct all their mistakes! Did anyone see that video clip of Danial Hannan slating Gordon Brown? He said that basically the UK is in negative equity with each child born owing £20k, and that servicing the interest on that debt will cost more than educating the child. It really is a dyer situation we are in and it is all down to greed. Its just a crying shame that those most greedy have walked away very wealthy and those who had nothing to do with it will be left to pay the price.

Sam.

just teach the child ignore the debt and instead pull out more and more for everyone, ask robot do the work. when the debt grows to jillions just push the numbers to the robot. easy..
 
"But where is the money coming from? Is it digital/fake money or hard currency?"

Aaron, are you referring to quantitative easing?
 
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