Is it really possible?

This is a discussion on Is it really possible? within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Taylored001 they are just consistant, they trade relatively small amounts of a huge account to definately and ...

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Old Apr 15, 2009, 1:54pm   #31
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Originally Posted by Taylored001 View Post
they are just consistant, they trade relatively small amounts of a huge account to definately and unriskly make money.
unfortunately, Taylor, I've seen it all before!
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 2:01pm   #32
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Originally Posted by Dinos View Post
Add to that discipline, together with a clearly defined trading plan, which has being rigourously backed tested and statiscally assessed to form a trading plan, you should win.
Surely you borrow a million quid and clean up quick time?
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 3:19pm   #33
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Calinor started this thread Raysor, well there are some things that are out of limits, I can never run the 100m in under 10 seconds for example. But that's a physical thing. Also for formula 1, there are what 30-40 drivers or so? You're competing against possibly the best 40 in the world. If trading was me against the best 40 traders in the world who have trained for 20 years, then no, I probably couldn't do it because lots of the 40 would get killed too.

But when it comes to something like trading, where it is not just the best in the world, but also newbs and investors and others my attitude is if somebody else can do it, then of course I can do it too. Which is why I asked of course.

Anyway, I appreciate everyone's answers. I think I have found the answer to my question.
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 4:53pm   #34
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Originally Posted by Calinor View Post
Raysor, well there are some things that are out of limits, I can never run the 100m in under 10 seconds for example. But that's a physical thing. Also for formula 1, there are what 30-40 drivers or so? You're competing against possibly the best 40 in the world. If trading was me against the best 40 traders in the world who have trained for 20 years, then no, I probably couldn't do it because lots of the 40 would get killed too.

But when it comes to something like trading, where it is not just the best in the world, but also newbs and investors and others my attitude is if somebody else can do it, then of course I can do it too. Which is why I asked of course.

Anyway, I appreciate everyone's answers. I think I have found the answer to my question.
My point about Lewis Hamilton was that you can't just point to someone and say if they can do it so can anybody else. My point there was if you were an 8 year old Go-kart champ waht are your chances of become F1 World champion in 15 years time? Perhaps not a good example. But like anything it is within the person. If you want to make consistent profits out of day trading, you have first got to find the tools necessary to do it with. I am sure there are a few people who make money out of day trading and other forms of trading, even gambling. I suspect, however they also know when to quit, which, in my experience is the answer to most things.
It always occurs to me with the amount of computing power available someone could have devised an automated system that always had an edge. Maybe they have. Maybe LTC Hedge fund thought they had it!

By the way running 100m in under 10 secs is not just a physical thing. And I suspect day trading is not just a mental thing!
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Old Apr 15, 2009, 4:56pm   #35
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Pit traders ( mostly eletronic these days ) are done on noise.
Seek the net for noise indicators, I remember one site that used to have a real time service from S+P pit years ago, as the noise got louder it was time to trade, yes the good old days.
Now look for trin, ticks numbers linked to support resistence on 2-5 min charts.
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Old Apr 24, 2009, 4:14pm   #36
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David those are good solid numbers! Can I ask what you trade and what have you found to be the best tools for your 'edge'? I am new and looking to open an account with fxpro 9deom to start) have been reading all about MACD, EMa and Stochastics as a good measure whats your view?
Thanks,
Jason
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Old Apr 24, 2009, 7:16pm   #37
 
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There is now answer until you try it

I prefer to swing trade as I was not very good at scalping or day trading.

You can make a nice haul on forex day trading but often closing your positions at end of day will limit your gains if your in a good one closing is just losing additional pips. It can often take much more than a day for a currency to make you profits.

Don't do stocks much anymore but I position traded them anyway

The answer is unknown for you until you try but for me the answer was a break even usually.

Back then I know a lot less and now I make more than enough to keep me happily trading and risking profited cash
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Old May 22, 2009, 2:36am   #38
 
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Understand what's really happening here.

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Originally Posted by Calinor View Post
Furthermore, those trading desks that do still exist, are not filled with old experienced guys who took years to learn and now can make crap loads of money.They are filled with youngsters who could just be existing based on chance again, survival bias. This echoes a lot of what people like Nassim Taleb have written about. I have not experienced day-trading long enough to know if it is doable. I have tried it a little, and I win some, lose some as epxected but overall can only break even. So I am hoping more experienced people here can shed some light. I am quite happy to put the time into it to study the charts and learn it. But I want to know if it is just a fools errand before I spend that time learning.

Some honest opinions and results please. And where are the old guys of trading? Why don't you find them on the trading floors of the big banks day-trading? How many day-traders do banks actually employ? These things are important, because if they are employing quite a large number, then it is because the accounts show it is profitable for them to. If they're not employing them, then that is because it is not profitable.
The problem with the conclusion is that the best traders are better rewarded by hedge funds. Claude Shannon was one of the best traders back in the day, but he is more known for getting good long-term results based on fundamentals than for his technical analysis abilities. This isn't because he couldn't make money on day trading. This is because the more money you have, the harder it is to do short-term trades. He was managing billions, so it was better for him to invest primarily long-term. He never, ever worked for a bank. He went from being a college professor at MIT, to becoming independently wealthy trading options with his own money, to managing a hedge fund. His hedge fund had better average returns than Warren Buffet. His personal accounts allegedly had better returns than his hedge fund. He only revealed his successful methods if somebody else disclosed the same method first (e.g. the Black-Sholes option pricing formula).

The banks use performance persistence bias because it allows them to get good peolple for less money. How could they make money if they had to pay out 50% of profitable trades to compete with Medalion Funds, while absorbing 100% of losses? Instead, they get people to trade small amounts of money, and those who make the most are allowed to trade more. This works for a short while because some young people have a psychology that reacts faster to trends or mass psychology than the market reacts. Thus they are one step ahead simply because they do the stupid thing faster than everybbody else does the stupid thing. Rather than following the smart money, they stay one step ahead of the stupid money.

The banks also have information that you don't, which allows them to make small profits on large amounts of money in simple ways that seem to never fail. They don't need smart people to do this, and the smart people leave for better compensation at hedge funds and mutual funds and insurance companies.
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Old May 22, 2009, 1:49pm   #39
 
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Originally Posted by Calinor View Post
I'm wondering if it is actually possible to consistently make good money Day-trading. And hope some people can be honest and share their approximate results. I believe it is possible to make money over a long time period, because you can find the right trends, and the intra-day noise doesn't affect you if you have a wide stop and are happy to wait days, weeks or months. You will lose sometimes, but eventually I believe you can win this way (especially if you make good entries) and some hedge funds do seem to win over the long term.

Day trading has a lot of noise though, and possibly a lot of trading (=commission costs), and you can be right about the overall move, but get killed on any given day. Do people really make money here? Also the reason I ask if people can make GOOD money is not because I'm concerned with how much you make, but realistically if 10,000 people all bet on a bunch of random coin tosses, some will make money. But they won't make enough that is convincing enough that it must be beyond chance. So in order to claim that it can successfully be done, then you should be able to make quite substantial gains as a % of your capital.


How many people here actually make good money by day-trading? Please share. Many people say it is just not possible. I know you read on here and from experienced traders that you will lose for 6 months to a year before you learn and become consistently profitable, but perhaps they just want newbs to trade and lose their money. Fresh meat for the brokerages, and fresh meat for those that hang on to long term moves.

Another reason why I have doubts, is that many Banks are just clearing out their prop desks. Meaning, they are not profitable enough to run any more (if they ever were indeed profitable beyond chance). So if even these guys with all the best equipment, analysts, years of experience and data are not making money, how can a normal trader be expected to. Furthermore, those trading desks that do still exist, are not filled with old experienced guys who took years to learn and now can make crap loads of money.They are filled with youngsters who could just be existing based on chance again, survival bias. This echoes a lot of what people like Nassim Taleb have written about. I have not experienced day-trading long enough to know if it is doable. I have tried it a little, and I win some, lose some as epxected but overall can only break even. So I am hoping more experienced people here can shed some light. I am quite happy to put the time into it to study the charts and learn it. But I want to know if it is just a fools errand before I spend that time learning.

Some honest opinions and results please. And where are the old guys of trading? Why don't you find them on the trading floors of the big banks day-trading? How many day-traders do banks actually employ? These things are important, because if they are employing quite a large number, then it is because the accounts show it is profitable for them to. If they're not employing them, then that is because it is not profitable.
Absolutely YES, I've being day trading for 10 Years and its my only source of income, a robust system, tried and backtested and forward tested, tweaked and going through the whole process again and again until you get the % hit rate right. The the hard bit, a robust trading plan, discipline and patience, and not using human emotion (fear of losing), if your have done your homework right you should have a plan to trade. I trade mainly 2 "products" the ftse and cac similtaneously. I trade one time frame only, (15 MIN), take the fste yesterday, for the period 8am - 9pm, my set up identified 6 potential trades, the result, 5 were positive, 1 loser, (83% success rate, )however, I only traded the one (and made my daily pips).

Trading really doesn't have to be rocket science, inho, the trader makes life difficult, over elaborate charts etc, the adage for me KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).

In reality, the worse thing are board like this, everybody has their opinion and system, you "read" others making it, whilst you suffer a losing trade, you begin to question yourself, you find yourself quiting winners early and letting losings position run longer (your doomed to failure if thats you imho).

So get you system, test, test and test again, and when your live trading stay well away from these board or any chat room you attend, concentrate, show discipline, act on the set up, bank the winners, quit losing positions without question , so long as your % is correct your on a winner.

I record every data from every set up that appears, recording what I see as the important to build up a thorough picture and understanding of the product I'm trading, these stats are recorded daily and go back years, I always have the most upto date information to hand, so making it easy to ascertain my stop and limit positions based on current market conditions, its not easy, in fact its sodding hard, but the hard work will pay off, then maybe you can do as I do, and work 3/4 hours a day and then move onto something more interesting.

Just a thought
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