Is it really possible?

This is a discussion on Is it really possible? within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the T2W Archive category; Originally Posted by Calinor Thanks Spitlink. "To answer how many traders of ten years are more are failing?" It is ...

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Old Mar 1, 2009, 6:49pm   #17
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Originally Posted by Calinor View Post
Thanks Spitlink. "To answer how many traders of ten years are more are failing?" It is hard for me to know, because you don't see too many of them in banks. Maybe they have blown up by then, or burned out, or are trading for their personal account quietly and you don't see them. I honestly don't know, which is why I posted. To re-enforce some faith if you know what I mean It is good to know that there ARE people like you and others who can make it. I also thought that perhaps very few of those 10-year plus traders actually day-trade and maybe they make their money from swing trading. But it seems there are plenty of profitable day-traders too.

Mr. J-Arthur, the reason I would like to do it, is like you, for the independence it offers and because I find it very interesting. Can't deny I enjoy it. Even the studying charts for hours, and thinking up new systems. It is a great challenge for me, even though I'm not winning that battle yet, and I relish it. But if I know I never would be able to win that game (as is true at the casino unless you count cards), then I would sensibly give it up.
Don't worry, I did not expect an answer to that question but I think that the gamblers must be separated from the serious traders, in that 90%.

I am not a wealthy trader, by any means, but I enjoy it and it is profitable for me. For what it's worth, I've tried all types of ideas and systems and, in the end, have come back to the simplest methods of all.

Split
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Old Mar 1, 2009, 9:55pm   #18
 
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Which are?
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Do or do not, there is no try!
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Old Mar 1, 2009, 10:19pm   #19
 
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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
Its good to see that you are realistic is in your expecations.

I have averaged much more than 50% over the last four years. My systems are profitable about 80% of months.

As for teaching you, there really is no incentive for me to do that.But nearly everything i know about trading can be learnt from books. The rest you must learn yourself by actually trading and losing real money.

I am prepared to trade systems that only win 40% of the time, i am prepared to have 10 losing trades in a row. Sometimes (but thankfully not often) i only get 2 winning tades out of 20.
Most traders are not prepared to trade that way and are not prepared to take 30%+ drawdown like i am prepared to do. Most people lose discipline after 3 losing trades.

Im not saying this is the only way to trade. Some people claim to be profitable with systems than win over 60% of the time, even 80 or 90% of the time. I have never been able to develop such day trading systems (atleast not ones that remain robust for long periods) but perhaps they do exist.

Anyway a high win rate is not required to make money as a trader as i am sure you know already.

People fear losing money. My biggest fear is missing a valid trade. I also have a level of comitment to trading that most people would not be able to match.
If I weren't trading for some time already and couldn't do math, I would be sure now that you will be topping the Forbes 500 soon
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Old Mar 1, 2009, 10:25pm   #20
 
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Originally Posted by Splitlink View Post

I am not a wealthy trader, by any means, but I enjoy it and it is profitable for me. For what it's worth, I've tried all types of ideas and systems and, in the end, have come back to the simplest methods of all.

Split
30 years of trading. I believe, you tested everything. I don't believe, you are not wealthy Maybe we have a different definition of "wealth"
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Old Mar 1, 2009, 10:29pm   #21
 
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To answer the question: Yes, it is possible. Just put a little bit of effort into it
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Old Mar 1, 2009, 11:51pm   #22
 
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Originally Posted by DaxDestroyer View Post
If I weren't trading for some time already and couldn't do math, I would be sure now that you will be topping the Forbes 500 soon
You cant keep on making 100% for long with a day trading system so not much chance of joining the billionaire league as a day trader.

At some point you starting to run out of liquidity and you get increased slippage.

Then it becomes a constant $ dollar return with diminishing % returns.

If you start with 1m and make 100% a year until you reach 10million a year it goes something like:

year0: 1m
year1: 2m (100%)
year2: 4m (100%)
year3: 8m (100%)
year4: 16m (100%)
year5: 26m (62%)
year6: 36m (38%)
year7: 46m (27%)
year8: 56m (22%)
year9: 66m (18%)
...

This is just an illustration, you might hit a wall way before 10 million or perhaps after, it depends on your system.
Liquidity issues is why a small trader can make 100% a year until they get quite rich, but a hedge fund with 100s of millions under management struggles to make 20% a year. They cannot trade the 'easy' systems we trade.
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Old Mar 2, 2009, 5:09am   #23
 
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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
You cant keep on making 100% for long with a day trading system so not much chance of joining the billionaire league as a day trader.

At some point you starting to run out of liquidity and you get increased slippage.

Then it becomes a constant $ dollar return with diminishing % returns.

If you start with 1m and make 100% a year until you reach 10million a year it goes something like:

year0: 1m
year1: 2m (100%)
year2: 4m (100%)
year3: 8m (100%)
year4: 16m (100%)
year5: 26m (62%)
year6: 36m (38%)
year7: 46m (27%)
year8: 56m (22%)
year9: 66m (18%)
...

This is just an illustration, you might hit a wall way before 10 million or perhaps after, it depends on your system.
Liquidity issues is why a small trader can make 100% a year until they get quite rich, but a hedge fund with 100s of millions under management struggles to make 20% a year. They cannot trade the 'easy' systems we trade.
Best of luck Sounds by far better, but still quite challenging. Maybe I am only not good enough
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Old Mar 3, 2009, 2:04pm   #24
 
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There are old traders, and bold traders, but no old, bold traders.
Almost all day traders either get wiped out, or they have to take the money and run.
If you want to consistently make money, it will be (by definition) over the long term. Which means that you must trade conservatively, and be fearful when others are greedy...but be greedy when others are fearful. So to answer your question, yes, you can be successful, but "consistent" and "day-trade" in the same sentence is a contradiction in terms.
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