a tricky question for the pro's to try and answer

shan777

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Here's a question for all of you probabilty freaks in this forum because this question has me and my mate in disagreement.
OVER A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DAYS TRADING IS IT MORE PROFITABLE TO TRADE MORE THAN LESS?
We both agree that it makes no difference but my mate's point is you have to work off the assumption that you are profitable trader as you wouldnt trade if you were a loser over a certain period of time, therefore you are halving your profitablity.
I agree with this aswell but my point is that in the theory of is it better to trade more or less should not have any other factors involved as it is a probabilty theory. What do you guys reckon.

Our situation is we are averaging 9-10 trades a night. I suggested to trade half the time, therofre saving on commissions. The underlying question is ..... will this reduce our profits assuming we are making good returns, and also assuming the trades we cut are randomly winners and losers.
 
if you have any way able to borrow unlimited amount of money from central bank or somewhere theres no problem to trade all the time and will wins everytime.
 
Its a very simple question to answer. On the basis of probability, if you have a positive edge, then you trade each time the edge presents itself, reducing trading frequency to reduce commissions makes no sense at all as you are wasting an opportunity to profit. The situation is even worse for low strike rate systems because you are throwing away the opportunity of catching the larger winning trades that offset the many losing trades

Assuming you wish to be profitable, why would you turn down an opportunity to make money ? Imagine if you had a printing press that printed dollar bills, would you turn it off at night just to save on the cost of ink ?

If you dont have an edge, and you are relying on luck then the optimal strategy is to risk absolutely everything on a single trade.
 
Last edited:
(Pw * Aw) - (Pl * Al)

Providing AW and Al include costs of trading and the result is positive.

What's tricky about that?
 
that would have to be one of the most clearest and intelligent answers i have seen on these forums, thank you
 
i was thinking straight down the line as a bare probabilty, where as i should of been adding in the equation of trading it successfully
 
Just shut up man.

all your thoughts about 'probability' is not reality of the market.
assumption is not reality of the market
prediction is not reality of the market
hope is not reality of the market

market is what.?
 
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