Think you know probability?

This is a discussion on Think you know probability? within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers: You ...

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Spin the cylinder again, then fire 32 60.38%
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 5:32pm   #1
 
Skill Leverage's Avatar
Joined Nov 2008
Think you know probability?

I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 5:37pm   #2
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skill Leverage View Post
I'm sure some of you have heard this one before, but for those who haven't, give me your answers:

You are handed a revolver, with two bullets placed in adjacent chambers in the 6-chamber cylinder. The cylinder is spun to a random position and the loaded gun is handed to you. You put the barrel to your head and pull the trigger - an empty click.

Now, you are told that you must pull the trigger one more time. Do you re-spin the cylinder, or just pull the trigger again?

NB. Please do not post explanations for your answer until everyone has had a chance to make up their mind. Also don't bother Googling an answer, it kind of defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Hint: Read the initial conditions carefully, and visualise the situation.
Its obvious - give spanish a call see what he recommends then do the opposite.
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 6:18pm   #3
 
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Skill Leverage started this thread Do you laugh at all your own jokes in real life, or just on internet forums
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 6:23pm   #4
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Where is BSD, these days? I hope he's not into cross-dressing.
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 6:30pm   #5
 
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Excellent, Monty Hall tooled up. Do we need to account for the weight of the bullets or can we assume each chamber has a 1/6 chance of selection? I've actually no idea how revolvers work in this respect. Regardless, it's going to be the second choice.
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 6:39pm   #6
 
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Easy!
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Old Feb 14, 2009, 6:41pm   #7
 
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Originally Posted by Paul71 View Post
Where is BSD, these days? I hope he's not into cross-dressing.
He pulled the trigger again with out respinning.
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