Crude Oil..is it really cheap?

Has crude oil really come down in price.....

With the $ strength....is crude really cheaper in terms of GBP, EURO,...etc...

Seems that the only real benificiary of this drop from the high of July are economies that hold extensive reserves of USDollars....

Is my thinking correct???

yes a lot of the drop is to do with the $ strength but sentiment and demand are the main driving factor I think

in you opinion....what percentage of the drop in oil would you assign to $ strength, and what percentage to sentiment?..

If the drop is more attributable to $ strength than sentiment...then wouldn't OPEC's output cut be insignificant?....it seems that Crude pricing is more at the mercy of dollar valuation....wouldn't it be more effective for the dollar fall!.....or is that what is inevitable.....Can't OPEC price oil in currencies other than the dollar....?...is this inevitable.

So, the real question should be.....which way is the dollar going....anybody here have Q12009 forecast, I mean, thats if the price movements in oil have more to do with dollar valuation?

It's a bit more than just sentiment! FT.com / In depth / Oil for an insight into some of the drivers.

I dont know what prices people are forcasting for oil at the moment. But you know the time is right to buy when everyone are screaming $10 oil. Just like when oil was at $147 and everyone was screaming $250 oil.

time is near but not just yet I feel. I got burnt on the way up last time tyring to short so holding off just now

Crude

What do you guyz and girls think.....are we on our way up yet?

ha

SSINGH said:

What do you guyz and girls think.....are we on our way up yet?

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What do your MA's say? Do you have your chart on the right time frame?

I'm not too clued up with technical lingo...but I guess your asking what do my moving averages say....

What I can see is that oil is way way way too oversold. I put a heavey long postion on at around 49$ FEB 09....i'm prepared to hold this position...even if oil toys with $40. I know that there is a chance that oil could go below $40...but thats the risk I take so that I don't miss the upside action, where I expect oil to be at around $80...this is a long term play....

On another note....I don't see too much more downside in percentage terms... I think and hope that we've found a bottom. Since traders are talking about a Xmas rally...I think oil will also benifit from this as sentiment comes into play. I have been playing both sides...long and short...my long is a long term play....but have been also shorting when opportunities present themselves..this is to cover the long positions losses.

A few days a go...a trader on Bloomberg said that he expected Jan-09 oil to touch $44, and then bounce back quite violently upto $50 very suddenly pathing a way to a recovery,

Thats the way I'm playing this out....you're probably more experienced than me, so I apologise in advance if my perspective is all bull to you!

i heard a trader on bloomberg saying $250 by the end of 2008.......wait it was three traders (when the price was around $140) and then two weeks later one of the same traders saying $70 and two new ones saying $40 choices choices

Dilesh...i've made my bets...i've made my bed!...all we try to do is act on the information at hand!...thats all we can do...

my personal opinion (which prob doesn't mean much ) is that theres alot of people in the same boat as you .....and the pirates are aproaching fast, planing to make you walk the plank (stop you out) and then exactly what you and everyone belives will happen the price will go up unfortunately by then you might be in the deep end

"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. "

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. "
A few quotes from everyones favourite grandad .... Warren Buffett

i'm vigilent to pirates..thats why i cash in on shorting oil as we go along!...a kind of diplomacy!

dilesh23 said:

my personal opinion (which prob doesn't mean much ) is that theres alot of people in the same boat as you .....and the pirates are aproaching fast, planing to make you walk the plank (stop you out) and then exactly what you and everyone belives will happen the price will go up unfortunately by then you might be in the deep end

"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. "

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. "
A few quotes from everyones favourite grandad .... Warren Buffett

Click to expand...

Either give some specifics about why oil will go down further or let singh live or die by his sword, don't just pluck things from the air. It's all too easy to comment on someone else's trading when you have nothing on the line yourself.

barryb said:

Either give some specifics about why oil will go down further or let singh live or die by his sword, don't just pluck things from the air. It's all too easy to comment on someone else's trading when you have nothing on the line yourself.

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touch'e swords at dawn :idea:

ssingh all you do on this forum is fish for free tips

no such thing as free pal!

For what it's worth (not very much), I am more confident about the US dollar going down in say, the next 6 months, than I am about oil going up (although I do think that will happen as well).

I think this for "fundamental"-type reasons. The new government is going to have its work cut out picking up the pieces from the last administration, and after the honeymoon is over (if there is one), I think confidence will go even lower, and there will be pressure on the dollar.

Now, I realise there is a reciprocal relationship between the price of oil and the level of the dollar, but I am not at all sure which is the chicken, and which the egg.

See also the link to the You-Tube clip I've just posted on the "metals" thread, about (mainly) gold prices.

At a fundamental level, there is no question that Oil is going to have to go way up again, in the fullness of time. No idea when, of course


Regards,
M.

Crude oil short sqeeze pending!