Articles

Hi all,

I am writing a piece called 'Luck' and the Pitfalls of Probability - it's a 3,000 words-ish piece covering the rationalisation of luck, and how this help you to profit in probability-oriented environments. It's very much a work in progress, and I'm not claiming that it's going to be all that good; I was just wondering where might be appropriate for me to post it, with a view to gaining some feedback from T2W's members? I believe that I have some valuable concepts to put across, whether or not I have written them in a garbled way that no-one but me could understand is another matter...

I appreciate any help you can give me with this.

Cheers,

SL

I'd be keen to read it. I love trading and I'm also a poker enthusiast - both of which have a strong statistical element and involve chance. I'm also keen on reading anything about expectation and variance.

Just a quick question:

What are you doing this for? Is it an assignment or are you doing it purely to put it up on T2W? If it's the latter, post it as a Word attachment within this Thread.

Best regards

JD

Hi JD,

Thanks for your post in my Introduction thread. To answer both your posts, I am planning to trade independently using my own capital for 5 years or so, keeping detailed/audited records along the way and then I will gain the relevant qualifications to manage other people's money for them, as my own business. I feel that, with the situation I'm in right now in terms of few responsibilities (no family, children, mortgage etc.), I can take a punt on myself and try to make it on my own - if it doesn't work out I can always go back to school as you say and try to make it via the 'traditional' routes.

If you like poker and trading then you *should* enjoy my article - I'm writing it purely for fun, by the way. I'm really not sure how much of it will come out making sense (I'm not much of a writer) but I am trying to tackle a topic I think a lot of people are familiar with but do not fully understand.

Anyway, the proof is in the pudding I suppose

Cheers,

SL

Jaydee said:

I'd be keen to read it. I love trading and I'm also a poker enthusiast - both of which have a strong statistical element and involve chance. I'm also keen on reading anything about expectation and variance.

Just a quick question:

What are you doing this for? Is it an assignment or are you doing it purely to put it up on T2W? If it's the latter, post it as a Word attachment within this Thread.

Best regards

JD

Click to expand...

Skill Leverage said:

Hi all,

I am writing a piece called 'Luck' and the Pitfalls of Probability - it's a 3,000 words-ish piece covering the rationalisation of luck, and how this can improve your chances of profiting in probability-oriented environments. It's very much a work in progress, and I'm not claiming that it's going to be all that good; I was just wondering where might be appropriate for me to post it, with a view to gaining some feedback from T2W's members? I believe that I have some valuable concepts to put across, whether or not I have written them in a garbled way that no-one but me could understand is another matter...

I appreciate any help you can give me with this.

Cheers,

SL

Click to expand...

Sounds a bit like:
The Dice Man by Luke Rhinehart

Skill Leverage said:

Hi all,

I am writing a piece called 'Luck' and the Pitfalls of Probability - it's a 3,000 words-ish piece covering the rationalisation of luck, and how this can improve your chances of profiting in probability-oriented environments. It's very much a work in progress, and I'm not claiming that it's going to be all that good; I was just wondering where might be appropriate for me to post it, with a view to gaining some feedback from T2W's members? I believe that I have some valuable concepts to put across, whether or not I have written them in a garbled way that no-one but me could understand is another matter...

I appreciate any help you can give me with this.

Cheers,

SL

Click to expand...

I'm interested. Post it on here please.

Hi Skill Leverage,
It sounds to me as if you need an editor and possibly a proof reader. If Jaydee is willing to read it anyway, maybe he would be willing to take on the editing role? As he knows his onions - he'll also tell you if your ideas are likely to be of interest to the T2W membership. Take his suggestions on board and amend the article accordingly and then post it in this thread - as he suggests. Invite constructive criticism from the wider membership; listen to sensible comments and amend the work again. Once the article is as good as finished, give it to someone to proof read. Finally, after all that, submit it for inclusion in the Knowledge Lab. The point here is that this thread will disappear in no time at all and your work will be lost in the bowels of the site. If it's to be read and enjoyed by many members over a sustained period of time, it really has to be in the K' Lab. This is pretty much the route I went down when I cobbled together the 'Trading Plan Template'.
Good luck.
Tim.

Thanks for all the input everyone - much appreciated. The writing is starting to spiral out of control a little bit, I wanted to limit it in size for ease of reading but it looks like it's going to hit 5,000 words.. I might try and split it into a 2-parter.

I think a proof reader would be great, and JD would be ideal if he is interested in doing so.

Magos I haven't read 'The Dice Man', but I will definitely try and find a copy.

Cheers all, I should have it finished by the weekend.

SL

Would be more than happy to proof read, SL. No rush, take your time an PM me when you have done the first part if you like.

By the way, I think Magos was joking a little about the Dice Man. I read it about 10 years ago - it's a fictional story about a chap who bases all his decisions on the role of a dice. Not trading decisions though - decisions on whether to rape and murder people for example.

Sounds like a pretty interesting project

Haha JD I have heard of that actually - probably quite a fascinating read, although not really along the same lines as my writing!

I'll email you a first draft tonight - no point finishing it if it's drivel

Hi BSD, thanks for your comment, it has been very good for me to write as it's made me really think about things I happen to 'know' in my mind through experience (as explained in the introduction), but putting it all to paper has allowed me to make further connections that I otherwise might not have.

Cheers,

SL

Skill Leverage said:

Thanks for all the input everyone - much appreciated. The writing is starting to spiral out of control a little bit, I wanted to limit it in size for ease of reading but it looks like it's going to hit 5,000 words.. I might try and split it into a 2-parter.

I think a proof reader would be great, and JD would be ideal if he is interested in doing so.

Magos I haven't read 'The Dice Man', but I will definitely try and find a copy.

Cheers all, I should have it finished by the weekend.

SL

Click to expand...

Your idea is for sure good, try write that paper and then use an EA to test it....
lets make some money

Jaydee - 1st Draft

Well guys here is a 1st draft, I've cut it down to about 3,000 words. Please bear in mind that it's a work in progress, I need some feedback at this stage because I can't really look at it any more haha.

Appreciate any comments, positive and negative. Thanks folks. SL

Jaydee has given me some excellent feedback on my first draft; as a result I have cut down another 500 words or so, and will be releasing a second draft - without the analogies to poker, which are illustrative, but not strictly necessary for the purposes of the article.

Skill Leverage said:

Jaydee has given me some excellent feedback on my first draft; as a result I have cut down another 500 words or so, and will be releasing a second draft - without the analogies to poker, which are illustrative, but not strictly necessary for the purposes of the article.

Click to expand...

I read your draft just now!

if you want a private feedback (email) ?
or a public one(forum) ?

please let me know

Magos said:

if you want a private feedback (email) ?
or a public one(forum) ?

Click to expand...

If I was S_L, I'd opt for private feedback if your comments are negative or, if they're positive, stick 'em on here so my ego can swell to something truly obese!
:cheesy:
Tim.

timsk said:

If I was S_L, I'd opt for private feedback if your comments are negative or, if they're positive, stick 'em on here so my ego can swell to something truly obese!
:cheesy:
Tim.

Click to expand...

Hahaha Yeah I was thinking the same thing! No, if you have feedback I'd love a pm. I have since cut out almost all the poker stuff, keeping it as relevant to trading as I (an inexperienced trader) can make it. I have also expanded Concept 2, as I realised that I didn't take mention a key argument - more on that later.

Hopefully draft 2 will be complete by the end of the week. Thanks so much for your input everyone. SL

Skill Leverage said:

Hahaha Yeah I was thinking the same thing! No, if you have feedback I'd love a pm. I have since cut out almost all the poker stuff, keeping it as relevant to trading as I (an inexperienced trader) can make it. I have also expanded Concept 2, as I realised that I didn't take mention a key argument - more on that later.

Hopefully draft 2 will be complete by the end of the week. Thanks so much for your input everyone. SL

Click to expand...

The following are personal comments

Introduction:
Your introduction I don’t like it alot. You should be confident when talking about your past, try watching "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" by Al Gore, when he talks about his past!
First question (Why is poker relevant to an article about trading?) no answer given
Second question
Poker vs. trading (pros vs. cons) get more deep in the subject
Rationalization of luck (I liked that one)
You give an example in poker! What about a detailed example in trading, not just like 2 sentences?
Your example takes like 25% of all your document! !!
You are talking a lot about poker, I know you are very familiar with the subject, but you have alot of things to talk when it comes to trading. Like behavioral finance, micro economics, macro economics, the types of trading, market cycles, retail vs. Institutional traders... i can continue all day long
Concept 1:I liked it, just go more deep
Concept 2: to bless some and punish others;????? Make it sound more interesting
Concept 3: poker/trader ?! two different things, try see the concept from both professions not group them together.
Concept 4: scoff at????! Come one, this is a scientific paper. First introduces the Levels (categories) and then analyze them
Conclusion
The zero sum game word you over used it
Edge doesn’t have to be based on probabilities (write more about that)
Write about the margin levels. i.e. even if you know the direction of the market you might not be able to hold your position and liquidate due to margin levels.

Like behavioral finance, micro economics, macro economics, the types of trading, market cycles, retail vs. Institutional traders... i can continue all day long

Click to expand...

Hi Magos,
Thanks for the feedback; I will definitely be relating it more to trading and less to poker, although as I said, my knowledge is largely based on the mathematics of probability-based systems - I am in no way an expert in the concepts you mention above, so I may struggle to get points across there.

Thanks again for reading though, I will refine it and re-post

SL

Skill Leverage said:

Hi Magos,
Thanks for the feedback; I will definitely be relating it more to trading and less to poker, although as I said, my knowledge is largely based on the mathematics of probability-based systems - I am in no way an expert in the concepts you mention above, so I may struggle to get points across there.

Thanks again for reading though, I will refine it and re-post

SL

Click to expand...

I can always help ... just ask

Magos said:

Edge doesn’t have to be based on probabilities

Click to expand...

Hi Magos

I'm just wondering what you mean by this? The reason why I ask is that 'edge' seems to be the most overused, misunderstood word in trading. I am not implying you misunderstand it, however. I'm just wondering how you define it.

Best

JD

Edit:

Actually Magos, to save us from polluting SL's thread, I have started this as a new topic here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/45136-edge-what.html#post569098

Cheers