Suggestions for mastering speculation

This is a discussion on Suggestions for mastering speculation within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by new_trader No, you still don't get it. I said the 'stop' is a function of proficiency, not ...

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Old Oct 9, 2008, 8:48am   #36
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
No, you still don't get it. I said the 'stop' is a function of proficiency, not time, resistance, support, pivot points etc...it is not a mechanical issue, at all. You persist in getting some sort of concrete, tangible answer which doesn't exist. What will it take to make you understand what is meant by proficiency? I use a 1.25 point stop now. I used to use a much larger stop. Nothing has changed other than my ability to judge my entry point better. What more do you want?

I also didn't say volatility has nothing to do with my trading. I am saying it shouldn't have anything to do with anyone’s trading. If you are proficient you will be efficient. If you are efficient you trade with close stops because your trades move immediately in your favour after entry and almost never put your stop at risk. Is this making it clearer? If you can only do this using wide stops, then you should endeavour to improve your timing. If you don’t want to or don’t feel the need to, then don’t. But don’t say it’s function of volatility because it is not.

The art of speculation is recognising what has occurred and as a consequence, what will occur. It is knowing what to expect and then acting accordingly with coolness and precision. It is not taking guesses and adjusting stop size to account for 'volatility'. Like I said, cause and effect, action and reaction. Either you understand or you don't.
Unless I'm missing something, all you've done is deduce that a stop of 1.25 will suffice for winners of 1pt or less. Of course volatility seems irrelevant for this type of "micro-scalping".

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...ad-week-2.html

All credit to you for posting those results, new_trader, and I'm sure in a prop environment you would do very well, but don't make it out to be something it isn't.

Joey

Last edited by Joey25; Oct 9, 2008 at 8:56am.
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 8:54am   #37
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
No, you still don't get it. I said the 'stop' is a function of proficiency, not time, resistance, support, pivot points etc...it is not a mechanical issue, at all. You persist in getting some sort of concrete, tangible answer which doesn't exist. What will it take to make you understand what is meant by proficiency? I use a 1.25 point stop now. I used to use a much larger stop. Nothing has changed other than my ability to judge my entry point better. What more do you want?

I also didn't say volatility has nothing to do with my trading. I am saying it shouldn't have anything to do with anyoneís trading. If you are proficient you will be efficient. If you are efficient you trade with close stops because your trades move immediately in your favour after entry and almost never put your stop at risk. Is this making it clearer? If you can only do this using wide stops, then you should endeavour to improve your timing. If you donít want to or donít feel the need to, then donít. But donít say itís function of volatility because it is not.

The art of speculation is recognising what has occurred and as a consequence, what will occur. It is knowing what to expect and then acting accordingly with coolness and precision. It is not taking guesses and adjusting stop size to account for 'volatility'. Like I said, cause and effect, action and reaction. Either you understand or you don't.

Have you set a date yet to go live ?
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 9:17am   #38
 
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I don't guess which way the market goes. Like you I have rules and a setup that I follow which gives me a good percentage chance in the direction I choose - it's just a favourable possibility though, nothing more. I feel you are almost saying that if a trader had perfect timing, he would never be stopped out and always get 100% winners. That is impossible as there is always an element of chance involved with any trade.
No, I am not saying a trader will always get 100% winners. There is always the chance of misjudgement and this is why a trader must use tight stops. Capital preservation is paramount. As the trader progresses and makes new discoveries and has new realisations they will modify their behaviour and the result will be their stops are being hit less often and their entries are improving and they are becomming profitable. This is irrespective of ‘market conditions’ because the trader becomes aware of what is what and what is not. Simple.
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 9:19am   #39
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eg of how historic volatility can be useful...re sp cash over the last 3 days we've had lower lows, red candles and the range (ie the volatility element) has contracted. this has occurred 17 times since 1998, in all trades we have bounced in the next 24 hrs (ie before 2115 tomorrow)....without giving everything away, im now long biased, expecting to hit 992-97 min tomorrow . dyor, fwiw, this is data mined, im also hedge with deep otm puts, so risk reduced in case of meltdown
fwiw, targets hit.

grey - spot on
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 9:23am   #40
 
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Have you set a date yet to go live ?
Do you always make spurious inane comments?
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 9:25am   #41
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Do you always make spurious inane comments?
It was only a question !....tsk some people !
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 9:30am   #42
 
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It was only a question !....tsk some people !
So was mine

Anyway, time to leave this thread, it is now infected.
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