Suggestions for mastering speculation

This is a discussion on Suggestions for mastering speculation within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the To Be Sorted category; Originally Posted by new_trader Do you always make spurious inane comments? It was only a question !....tsk some people !...

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Old Oct 9, 2008, 4:25am   #41
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Do you always make spurious inane comments?
It was only a question !....tsk some people !
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 4:30am   #42
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It was only a question !....tsk some people !
So was mine

Anyway, time to leave this thread, it is now infected.
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 4:34am   #43
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Have you set a date yet to go live ?
yes, probably once the latest order of pizza is prepared and delivered.

UTB
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 5:09am   #44
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Default Re: Suggestions for mastering speculation

Just caught this gem of a thread !

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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
I disagree. Current market conditions have been the ultimate acid test of the wisdom and advice of Socrates. He is, no doubt, the Grand Master of trading.
The only thing he was was a first class charlatan and posturer spouting esoteric nonsense whose sole purpose was to dazzle total newbies with simple and gullible souls into believing that he was a proficient trader.

Real traders understand that trading is nothing more than a simple probability game.

But then he couldn't have known that as he couldn't have traded his way out of a paper bag if his life depended on that as he proved when he went live for one single time only and promptly lost.

Bull****ters bull**** around with misleading complexity that has no other purpose than to impress, real traders understand the inherent simplicity of markets, that there is no secret conductor conducting all market participants in a manner that could be predicted with a crystal ball,no, instead of wasting their time on understanding what cannot be understood as all markets are is just the sum of their participants differently motivated actions, so they just make like a casino, forget about hit rates as a priority, walk the walk, and make lots of money.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
Here's a trade I've just done which illustrates that you can have wide stops based on volatility, and provided you use the vol to your advantage in the exits, you'll do far better than being ultra-precise and scalping for a few ticks.

The trade was a pivot point fade, the pivot point being more fadeable the more time has passed throught the day.

The stop is based on resistance, but should come in similar to 15-min ATR

Sell 3 at 1027.00
Stops at 1033.25
Exit at 1018.25

Profit = 3 x 8.75 = +26.25 points

Even though the stop was 6.25 away from the entry point, the move only got as high as 1027.25. What I'm saying is that the price should reverse somewhere between 1027.00 and 1033.25 - where exactly I don't care.

The point is the position of the stop is not the same as the risk of the trade

Then throughout the life of the trade the P/L deteriorated at times by 4pts, and the end result was inefficient in that it got as low as 1014.00. But who cares when the end result is + 9 handles?

Joey
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Originally Posted by Grey1 View Post
Your comments are non technical and irrelevant. Understanding volatility is crucial in risk assessment and hence directly correlated to pos sizing,,,
Personal un justified views such as ATR works when it does and does not work when it does not is not a type of defence that one should put forward in acceptance or denial of theoretical concepts specially when it comes to volatility..

If you feel pos sizing and volatility are not a measure of risk analysis please refer me to some theoretical papers so I can update my knowledge,


Grey1

Spot on guys !


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Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
Unless I'm missing something, all you've done is deduce that a stop of 1.25 will suffice for winners of 1pt or less. Of course volatility seems irrelevant for this type of "micro-scalping".

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...ad-week-2.html

All credit to you for posting those results, new_trader, and I'm sure in a prop environment you would do very well, but don't make it out to be something it isn't.

Joey
If it's even true - and NT has never gone live as far as I am aware -, then that kind of trading is COMPLETELY irrelevant, as it is NOT scalable, you CANNOT compound it.

But turning the leastest into the mostest is why we are doing this, otherwise you could make far safer and better money becoming a consultant or sthg.

High hit rate is just for those who have a need to be right, but it is NOT the way to make the most money.

Most net losers in markets are right more often than they are wrong.

Should give some people sthg to think about !

Does one see or does one not see ?

LOL !
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 5:20am   #45
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trader_dante started this thread
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Most net losers in markets are right more often than they are wrong.

Should give some people sthg to think about !

Does one see or does one not see ?

LOL !
Exactly.

The results from my journal, although statistically small, illustrate the point. 10 winners, 3 losers and I lost almost everything.

Let's put it down as a live experiment to test the validity of the "spanish stop". Markets do not always come back no matter how far away you put your stop and if you make money doing this, it is almost 100% down to luck. It cannot be continued for any lengthy period of time.

I have, in my own trading, actually noted an INVERSE RELATIONSHIP between win:loss ratio and account growth. I know this sounds insane but it is true for me - the more winning trades I have, the less I end up with ultimately.
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 8:18am   #46
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Question with the truth

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So was mine

Anyway, time to leave this thread, it is now infected.


Infected with the truth or just infected


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Old Oct 9, 2008, 10:50am   #47
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Infected with the truth or just infected


Andy
just infected!
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Old Oct 9, 2008, 2:49pm   #48
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Default Re: Suggestions for mastering speculation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey25 View Post
No, stops are a function of time.

Sorry mate, got to disagree. Stops are a function of price, it's that simple. Prices are up for buying and selling, and although volatility is big at the mo, the same prices are running in the market, up for auction. So you are either with the market or you are not, you can only buy off sellers, and you can only sell buyers, anything else is against the grain.

No offence, Joey, and not intended as bravado face slapping.

Good trading, mate.
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