Shortcuts vs knowledge

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars? Its as bad as all the 'get rich schemes'. Markets are not that simple, traders are not that simple. A successful trader needs to be adaptable and they can only do that with knowledge, understanding and skill.

To be the best you need to truly understand what you are doing and what you are trading and trade via that skill. Finding, or worse still, copying someone else's strat is a road to ruin.

Oh, why oh why do people not try to learn the markets...? No one is learning a thing here.

Knowledge is king. If all the 'traders' on here spent more time acquiring their skills and edge through understanding the number of losers would greatly decrease.

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

It's amazing I have only found a handful of threads and posters with half a clue

twistedhedgehog said:

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars? Its as bad as all the 'get rich schemes'. Markets are not that simple, traders are not that simple. A successful trader needs to be adaptable and they can only do that with knowledge, understanding and skill.

To be the best you need to truly understand what you are doing and what you are trading and trade via that skill. Finding, or worse still, copying someone else's strat is a road to ruin.

Oh, why oh why do people not try to learn the markets...? No one is learning a thing here.

Knowledge is king. If all the 'traders' on here spent more time acquiring their skills and edge through understanding the number of losers would greatly decrease.

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

It's amazing I have only found a handful of threads and posters with half a clue

Click to expand...

Exactly! Very Good!

Thanks new_trader. I was contemplating starting a thread on actual 'trading' but it seems no one here is interested and we are the minority.......

Maybe newbies should think why that is.

twistedhedgehog said:

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars? Its as bad as all the 'get rich schemes'. Markets are not that simple, traders are not that simple. A successful trader needs to be adaptable and they can only do that with knowledge, understanding and skill.

To be the best you need to truly understand what you are doing and what you are trading and trade via that skill. Finding, or worse still, copying someone else's strat is a road to ruin.

Oh, why oh why do people not try to learn the markets...? No one is learning a thing here.

Knowledge is king. If all the 'traders' on here spent more time acquiring their skills and edge through understanding the number of losers would greatly decrease.

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

It's amazing I have only found a handful of threads and posters with half a clue

Click to expand...

An excellent post. You are correct in what you say.

The unfortunate thing is that there is no RIGHT information available to newbie traders. Most will search the internet for ideas from other traders or attend seminars from prople who cannot do and only teach. The problem is that even the ones that do teach and trade, they have perfected the very same techniques you mention.

Whereas the ones who have really made the effort and taken the time to really understand do not want to share their knowledge, and quite rightly so. Experience and time are two things that cannot be replaced or handed over lightly.

Knowledge and understanding are still only half the battle though. Psychology, attitude and self control are every bit as important and there is plenty of good information here on that and plenty of people willing to help... Although usualy people underestimate the importance of these things and so undervalue the advice they are given.

Indeed, you see it so often on this and other forums. Newbies arrive and want to be given the holy grail: the winning method that will make them money every day without them having to understand anything. (I am guilty of this myself.) They want to hear: buy the XYXGHGHS at 1pm, sell on Wall St open; 10 ticks guaranteed every day.

The reality is that it involves a lot of studying of ideas and methods that work for other traders, as well as watching the charts themselves to learn the characteristics of a given market. And then they have to understand what systems work for them and their personality. Eventually, with patience, they will slowly develop their own winning system.

twistedhedgehog said:

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

Click to expand...

Surely giving somebody a rod and teaching them the very basics of fishing (setting up the rod, casting, striking etc.) has to be the first step. It'd be much more difficult to teach all the other factors without first a basic understanding of how to use a rod.

That's not to say a lot more emphasis couldn't (or shouldn't) be put on developing a deeper understanding. The problem with doing that on a forum is that the majority of people are just looking for an easy method they can follow without understanding. No matter how much anybody protests they wont want to learn anything more than the rules.

Eventually they'll get burned because they all they really knew were the rules and at that point they'll either give up for one reason or another (usually blaming anything but their lack of understanding) or they'll realise what mistake they made and will then start trying to learn the more important things.

twistedhedgehog said:

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars? Its as bad as all the 'get rich schemes'. Markets are not that simple, traders are not that simple. A successful trader needs to be adaptable and they can only do that with knowledge, understanding and skill.

To be the best you need to truly understand what you are doing and what you are trading and trade via that skill. Finding, or worse still, copying someone else's strat is a road to ruin.

Oh, why oh why do people not try to learn the markets...? No one is learning a thing here.

Knowledge is king. If all the 'traders' on here spent more time acquiring their skills and edge through understanding the number of losers would greatly decrease.

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

It's amazing I have only found a handful of threads and posters with half a clue

Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more! It seems to be a common trait among some starters that it's only a question of finding the right indicator or formula & then sitting back to take the profits. We know that's not true (did we find out the hard way - is there an easy way?) but when you look at all the ads making it out to be so easy, is it any wonder? There will always be gullible, greedy and stupid people and while there are, the snake oil salesmen will thrive. How many refugees do we now have from the property market (it always goes up doesn't it?). I seem to remember there was a flight to investing/trading after the last property downturn.

I feel sorry for the genuine mentors / educators out there who do have something worthwhile to offer. And despite the oft said and oft true about doing and teaching, there are people who can help starters (and the rest too if the truth is known).


Why can't the newbies just understand (and perhaps the silent majority do?) that trading is a strange blend of skill, technique, psychology and art-form that you won't pick up overnight. Like any subject, you have to start with the basics and build on that. It's all about understanding: blindly following "signals" or tips or someone else's stuff is never going to work successfully long-term. But did you listen to your elders, betters and wisers when you were young?

I think one of the difficulties on this forum is that the more-experienced people want to discuss advanced strategies etc - which is fine if you're at that level. How is a newbie to know that he's swimming in the deep end when he can't even do the doggie-paddle? Perhaps there is scope for grading threads to give guidance - but who will do it and who will have the absolute say on the level allocated? - Could start a thread on it - would keep the Mods off the streets


I've not really said anything new - anyone who is successfully trading will surely know what I'm getting at - I just hope the starters, especially the youngsters who've never seen a recession or downturn or bubble etc etc will listen and act on the good advice from others in this and other threads.

Bottom line is that ignorance, stupidity and greed will always be there to benefit wise and successful traders. That's life, and without it I don't think there would be a market.

Hi twistedhedgehog - I think you're partly right -there is an over-concentration here and (in all TA studies) on entry points. But experienced hands will recognise it is very possible to use only good entry points and still lose money.

Still, the new traders must start somewhere, and its no wonder their first thought is 'how do I get in?'

twistedhedgehog said:

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars?

Click to expand...

LOL !

Last time I checked trading is about one thing, and one thing only:

Your net asset value that you have managed to generate through speculating in markets.

And as far as that goes not many people have achieved the astronomical returns of say a Richard Dennis who started with a couple hundred bucks and ended up with hundreds of millions, all thanks to his very simple breakout trading, or will go on to earn as much as our trader Dante with his pin bars and ability to let winners really run.

I trade breakouts - not that I'm in a league with Dennis yet - and couldn't advise anyone anything much better than that.

I always have and always will believe that people who post stuff like you did are the ones that turn up to eventual get togethers with Nissan Micras, scruffy collars, badly fitting clothes and cheap watches.

That has always been my experience.

"I always have and always will believe that people who post stuff like you did are the ones that turn up to eventual get togethers with Nissan Micras, scruffy collars, badly fitting clothes and cheap watches."

Was that really necessary?

The micra (used) to be a very good car for its market niche.

When I started (20+ years ago) I was driven by passion and an insatiable desire to win. It led to the inevitable search for the holy grail which after several (6 years) of losses, 40 books and more frustration than could be endured, all the way back to basics.

Over the years I looked at dozens of systems, black box systems and methods employed by others and concluded that almost all fall in the range of dumb or dumber.

Also I have tried to mentor others and gave it up as a bad job for both them and me. There were two distinct factors at work with mentoring and they were either the other party knew too much about TA or too little. The ones that knew too much wouldn't change and the ones that knew too little couldn't understand.

I can understand the overwhelming desire to resist change on the part of the avid TA studyers because I still, 16+ years into fulltime trading, have to apply constraints to trade what I see not what I think.

IMO trading is an implicit learned process with explicit input at the beginning. It is the learning by thousands of hours of critical observation (implicit) that leads to success providing practical considerations are applied to what is observed. If money management, risk\reward, and win\loss ratios are not strictly adhered to then everything else is pointless.

The psychological aspect to which such high percentage values for success are given is IMO a personal reflection of trust in a methodology and the discipline to apply it correctly. If the method is good there should be no fear, anxiety or excitement but it can takes years to get to that point and ironically the best trades are always the hardest to take but offer the best R\R.

IMO there are no shortcuts but are far too many multi-year wandering off in the wrong direction attractions available.

You miss my point BSD.

Lets make this simple for all to understand. Lets hypothetically suggest, for example, Newtron Bomb and the average newbie are both doctors.

Both 'doctors' can become successful through the correct procedure of performing an operation but...

Doctor A (Newtron Bomb) has done a degree in human biology, he understands the human body, he understands how it works, why it works, what would happen if something was incorrect and how to change the issues. In short, he understands the human body. Once he finished his biology degree with honours, he went on to study operating, and became proficient through a method tested and certain.*

Doctor B, the newbie, skipped the human biology course, didn't have time/couldn't be bothered, he wanted a quick route to success. He read all the books on how to slice open the body and knows where the liver is, because he read it.

Both are now working textbook methods that work...

Only doctor A has a clue what he is really doing. Only doctor A understands the body and only doctor A knows how to adapt.

Who really has a future career? Do you not see how understanding is more important?


*I am saying breakouts are a tested and certain method.

twistedhedgehog said:

Why do all the forums concentrate on shortcuts like breakouts or pin bars or inside bars? Its as bad as all the 'get rich schemes'. Markets are not that simple, traders are not that simple. A successful trader needs to be adaptable and they can only do that with knowledge, understanding and skill.

To be the best you need to truly understand what you are doing and what you are trading and trade via that skill. Finding, or worse still, copying someone else's strat is a road to ruin.

Oh, why oh why do people not try to learn the markets...? No one is learning a thing here.

Knowledge is king. If all the 'traders' on here spent more time acquiring their skills and edge through understanding the number of losers would greatly decrease.

Teaching a man to fish does not involve just learning how to cast a rod and where to place it, it means understanding the fish, the environment, the conditions and being able to change and adapt each minute through intense understanding, not some set of rules, whether indicator based or price.

It's amazing I have only found a handful of threads and posters with half a clue

Click to expand...

Well, I agree and disagree

Yes, there are many who are looking for shortcuts and a "method" they can employ without knowing too much about it all. Bit like just jumping into a car knowing about the accelerator, footbrake and steering wheel without knowing anything about how the car moves and what messages it sends you as it goes along. That's why insurance premiums are so high for new drivers!!

However, there are also very successful traders with a deep knowledge of the market who trade methodically and establish a set of "rules" which are born from that knowledge. Anyone able to follow those rules would be successful in part. I say "in part" because I doubt that many of those very successful traders follow their rules slavishly, but treat them more as guidelines. They know, for example, not to floor the pedal when the lights turn green when road conditions are icy, or that there is still a damn great lorry on the crossing. Similarly, like advanced drivers, they know when it is safe to speed up or when it's getting dangerous and time to slow down or stop. That's why proven advanced drivers get a discount on their premiums!!

good trading

jon

barjon said:

Yes, there are many who are looking for shortcuts and a "method" they can employ without knowing too much about it all. Bit like just jumping into a car knowing about the accelerator, footbrake and steering wheel without knowing anything about how the car moves and what messages it sends you as it goes along. That's why insurance premiums are so high for new drivers!!

Click to expand...

Yes, very good.

Traduk said:

When I started (20+ years ago) I was driven by passion and an insatiable desire to win. It led to the inevitable search for the holy grail which after several (6 years) of losses, 40 books and more frustration than could be endured, all the way back to basics.

Over the years I looked at dozens of systems, black box systems and methods employed by others and concluded that almost all fall in the range of dumb or dumber.

Also I have tried to mentor others and gave it up as a bad job for both them and me. There were two distinct factors at work with mentoring and they were either the other party knew too much about TA or too little. The ones that knew too much wouldn't change and the ones that knew too little couldn't understand.

I can understand the overwhelming desire to resist change on the part of the avid TA studyers because I still, 16+ years into fulltime trading, have to apply constraints to trade what I see not what I think.

IMO trading is an implicit learned process with explicit input at the beginning. It is the learning by thousands of hours of critical observation (implicit) that leads to success providing practical considerations are applied to what is observed. If money management, risk\reward, and win\loss ratios are not strictly adhered to then everything else is pointless.

The psychological aspect to which such high percentage values for success are given is IMO a personal reflection of trust in a methodology and the discipline to apply it correctly. If the method is good there should be no fear, anxiety or excitement but it can takes years to get to that point and ironically the best trades are always the hardest to take but offer the best R\R.

IMO there are no shortcuts but are far too many multi-year wandering off in the wrong direction attractions available.

Click to expand...

A traders journey in a nutshell!

"trading is an implicit learned process with explicit input at the beginning. It is the learning by "thousands of hours of critical observation (implicit) that leads to success providing practical considerations are applied to what is observed. If money management, risk\reward, and win\loss ratios are not strictly adhered to then everything else is pointless."

good post TraduK, Sh..t ! ............... 17 more years to go


OODA loops over and over again, refine refine refine

got to start some place, a breakout is as good a place as any imo, market may never see that zone ..............ever again


good weekend all

latter


Andy

No disrespect to Newtron Bomb and Trader Dante, their efforts and work is commendable but, for anyone new to this business will do better reading threads from 2004 and before, looking out for posts by many members no longer posting like mrmarcus, early socrates and dbpheonix and even more recent members like GammerJammer who read between the lines and look in more depth, the relationships between price and volume and LII.

Study each tick at a time and consider more depth than a tried and tested re-occurrence.

twistedhedgehog said:

You miss my point BSD.

Lets make this simple for all to understand. Lets hypothetically suggest, for example, Newtron Bomb and the average newbie are both doctors.

Both 'doctors' can become successful through the correct procedure of performing an operation but...

Doctor A (Newtron Bomb) has done a degree in human biology, he understands the human body, he understands how it works, why it works, what would happen if something was incorrect and how to change the issues. In short, he understands the human body. Once he finished his biology degree with honours, he went on to study operating, and became proficient through a method tested and certain.*

Doctor B, the newbie, skipped the human biology course, didn't have time/couldn't be bothered, he wanted a quick route to success. He read all the books on how to slice open the body and knows where the liver is, because he read it.

Both are now working textbook methods that work...

Only doctor A has a clue what he is really doing. Only doctor A understands the body and only doctor A knows how to adapt.

Who really has a future career? Do you not see how understanding is more important?


*I am saying breakouts are a tested and certain method.

Click to expand...

Using your analogy of two surgeons. There are subtle if not in some cases quite dramatic differences in human anatomy. A surgeon who has practiced hundreds or thousands of operations will work through the anomalies of anatomical differences and the reason is he has seen it all before which is implicit learning. The book learned surgeon has presumably limited or no practical experience and will cause a disaster with everything that varies from the expected norm. Implicit learning through thousands of hours of observation is IMO the answer. No short cuts.

To a degree I believe similar is true of trading and only by changing in accordance with market dynamics (on the fly) can trading be in tune.

The base methodology I settled on as the foundation framework is totally of the market and I could apply it to any market within a 15 minute review. Perhaps those 6 years were not wasted after all

Part of the problem with shortcuts v knowledge is the amount of misinformation that abounds.

Books: Should only be written by profitable working traders.

Tuition: Should only be given by profitable working traders

Information: Should only be given by profitable working traders.

The above will never happen of course.

Even it it were the case. You would still have more people failing rather than winning in this occupation.

It is only after you have acquired the knowledge that you know what the 'shortcuts' are.

Most misunderstood useless bit of information?
Study your market, know your market(s), share(s), learn how it moves and reacts.

They ALL move and react the same way. Be it indices/shares/futures/bonds etc, etc