betonmarkets flawless strategy for profits

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Old Aug 27, 2008, 11:01am   #1
 
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betonmarkets flawless strategy for profits

Hi

I have devised a strategy for betonmarkets that I would be grateful for you all to review and give me your comments:

FTSE index either intraday up or down.

step 1 : Start of with betting FTSE index rises by at least 0.02% over trading day bet £100 for £100 profit

step 2 : If successful, alternate following day by betting FTSE index falls by at least 0.02% over trading day, bet £100 for £100 profit. However if FTSE index did not fall then bet to rise again by doubling stake.

Basically this is a double up strategy as from the following strategy on roulette:

make money the easy way

I would appreciate opinions on this?Is this a viable strategy to make an income from FTSE rises and falls?

Your faithfully

JA

Last edited by jarnottuk; Aug 27, 2008 at 11:07am.
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 11:21am   #2
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its just a martingale system. With this system your bank will be blown in no time.
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 1:30pm   #3
 
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Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I believe that is the right link.

See "fallacy" in the html? :P

In short:

It works...if you have infinite wealth and inifite time...you got em?

EDIT: Also i wouldnt trust the link, firstly on the looks of it, and secondly at what it defines complex maths at.

Last edited by Hotch; Aug 27, 2008 at 1:39pm.
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 1:51pm   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
In short:

It works...if you have infinite wealth and inifite time...you got em?
Thought we all had em in abundance

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 2:07pm   #5
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BSD View Post
Thought we all had em in abundance

Click the image to open in full size.

Pretty Picture.

And If anyone has infinite wealth and time, please send half of it to me in a PM!
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 2:08pm   #6
 
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clever hook to get people to sign up to a "sure thing" with their affiliated casinos
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Old Aug 27, 2008, 2:21pm   #7
 
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In order to play this to "safe" levels it wouldn't be worth the bother.

Let's say you want to run this system for a year - with minimal risk of blowup - therefore you want a 1 in 200 chance that you will blow up. (assume 200 trading days a year)

1 in 200 is 0.5%. In order to generate less than 0.5% chance of losing you need to allow for 8 losers in a row.

0.5 ^ 8 = 0.0039

So lets say you have £10,000 and you want to trade this martingale system, then you need to divide your captial by 256 - (2 ^ 8 = 256) in order to have enough capital to cope with 8 losers.

So... every day you are trading to win £39 (10000/256). So assuming you got your trade right EVERY day then you'd win £7800 - a return of 78% - not bad.

BUT

Law of averages says you will only get half your bets right.

So..

100 days you'll win - that's £3900 (39%)

and the other 100 days you won't because you'll be doubling up just to win your money back the next day.

BUT then there will be days where you get things wrong 2 days in a row and that reduces your profit further.. (I can't be bothered working out the maths)

As you can see you won't get fantastic returns off this system. And if you run it for a year you stand a 65% chance that you will in fact blow out. Run if for 2 years and it becomes an almost certainty (79% chance). So you'll have to reduce the trade size further - which means even more measly profits.
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