Nothing works consistently

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Old Jul 9, 2008, 6:38am   #1
Joined Jan 2008
Nothing works consistently

I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 7:48am   #2
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Lots, but i doubt you would agree with my method and follow it. lol
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 8:34am   #3
 
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Nothing works 100%, the idea is to find something that works more than it doesn't and use money management when it doesn't work.

for example have a system that woeks 50% of the time, but, when you're wrong you only lose £200, but when you're right you make £400+, so for every 10 trades you'd average £1000+

There is no holy grail..............
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 8:45am   #4
 
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If anything does work on a risk adjusted basis...


Click the image to open in full size.

...this man will have a heart attack. Do you want to be responsible for that?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 9:01am   #5
 
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is that you, arabian?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 9:17am   #6
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Didn't he invent that painful sandal?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 9:25am   #7
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Originally Posted by mehow View Post
I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
You're right, you can't bank on what works today working next year, or in 6 months or even next week.

But if you're finding your scalp start doesn't work from one day to the next, you've probably not got a scalp strat. I'd argue unless you're pro, you can't make money long term with a scalp strat anyway.

A lot of folk think a failed breakout is a false breakout. It isn’t, it just never was a breakout. You need to refine your view of what constitutes a real breakout – and trade that.

You also need to counterbalance your need for certainty (if indeed that’s the problem) in any chart formation’s existence before committing, with the more pressing need, and greater skill/experience requirement of identifying market conditions which lead to potential setups before they even begin forming and having a conviction on the probability of it completing if you’ve any hope of making money.

If you've only been trading 6 months my guess is your failures are due to the same failures that beset most new traders. There's a whole site devoted to discussing such issues...
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 2:01pm   #8
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mehow started this thread
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There's a whole site devoted to discussing such issues...
Yeah, what's the site called?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 2:02pm   #9
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Yeah, what's the site called?
LOL.
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 2:06pm   #10
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Originally Posted by mehow View Post
I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Well if you're just scalping on short timeframes I would expect you to have trouble consistently replicating your results as it's more of a lottery, and transaction charges etc play more of a factor.

If you want to improve your chances (assuming you aren't doing this, or something like it already) try only scalping from one side (i.e. where the trend on a longer timeframe basis is.

Exact timings etc you can play around with yourself, but if you realise that some days your scalps risk being firmly against the grain then you may find you have more consistent results.

Suggest maybe you look at daily, 4h and 1h charts for some more pointers. If you just sit there and try and snipe off a 5 min chart you're just another hopeless mug punter throwing darts at a board unless you have some sort of edge.
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