Nothing works consistently

This is a discussion on Nothing works consistently within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by TheBramble There's a whole site devoted to discussing such issues... Yeah, what's the site called?...

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Old Jul 9, 2008, 1:01pm   #8
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There's a whole site devoted to discussing such issues...
Yeah, what's the site called?
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 1:02pm   #9
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Yeah, what's the site called?
LOL.
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Old Jul 9, 2008, 1:06pm   #10
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I've been trading for approximately six months now. What am having a hard time grasping is what worked yesterday doesn't work the following day.

For instance on one day I was scalping NASDAQ stock anddoing well well, and then using the same method the next day or a week later and I have devastating results. When trying to trade breakouts and momentum trades, majority of the breakout turn out to be false. Sometimes prices bounce off the EMA, sometimes they go straight through.

My point is nothing seems to work on a consistent basis. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Well if you're just scalping on short timeframes I would expect you to have trouble consistently replicating your results as it's more of a lottery, and transaction charges etc play more of a factor.

If you want to improve your chances (assuming you aren't doing this, or something like it already) try only scalping from one side (i.e. where the trend on a longer timeframe basis is.

Exact timings etc you can play around with yourself, but if you realise that some days your scalps risk being firmly against the grain then you may find you have more consistent results.

Suggest maybe you look at daily, 4h and 1h charts for some more pointers. If you just sit there and try and snipe off a 5 min chart you're just another hopeless mug punter throwing darts at a board unless you have some sort of edge.
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 9:57am   #11
 
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I find that a lot of trading is about knowing when to trade. I.e. identifying when the market is providing suitable opportunities for the particular method you are using.

I'm currently finding the Eurostoxx pretty hard to make any money in because it is largely directionless and noisy (until after 5pm when I leave and it comes off 60 ticks - I could swear it knows when I'm finishing for the day). My methods don't really work well for these types of markets and, therefore, I'm not in as many trades as I was the last few weeks. However, it doesn't stop me from trying to find new methods to trade different market conditions which, I believe, is very important.

In short, trading is about adapting to the different types of market conditions you will encounter. To give a crap analogy, one key does not fit all the locks - you need a ring of many keys.
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 10:10am   #12
 
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unless you have some sort of edge.
Exactly.
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 7:50pm   #13
 
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If your methods work one day and not the next, it's probably because you're using a strategy known as luck.
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Old Jul 10, 2008, 7:57pm   #14
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read fooled by randomness. might help you decide just how good your edge is...and how much chance can skew your view.
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