Probability theory etc

0007 · May 29, 2008, 4:02am

Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de Sautoy - he's generally worth a listen and good on the maths of music.

On now!

0007 · May 29, 2008, 4:47am

One major point that came out from this talk was how counter-intuitive probability theory is. Some lessons there for trading perhaps? eg - isn't it difficult to believe and act upon the facts and what you see happening, rather than what you think or want should happen.

No new lessons there then. Just need to work on my mental discipline!

(prog is normally available for "listen again" on BBC website - though it's still got last week's at present).

Pat494 · May 29, 2008, 4:48am

Way over my head but interesting that statistically you only need 23 people in the same room to have a good chance of 2 of those people having the same birthday. But 250 people to have to be in that room for a better than evens chance of someone else having the same birthday as yourself.

Pat494 · May 29, 2008, 4:51am

Quote:

Originally Posted by 0007

(prog is normally available for "listen again" on BBC website - though it's still got last week's at present).

On again Sunday evening 9.30 pm

temptrader · May 29, 2008, 7:17am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pat494

Way over my head but interesting that statistically you only need 23 people in the same room to have a good chance of 2 of those people having the same birthday. But 250 people to have to be in that room for a better than evens chance of someone else having the same birthday as yourself.

most of probability theory is relatively easy. When you get Stochastic processes, Martingales, queuing, diffusion processes, percolation's etc. . . . then things can get pretty intense.

Also there are counter intuitive paradoxes about protocols that you see in probability theory (see prisoner's paradox) and also other famous paradoxes like Simpson's paradox.

rachael24 · May 29, 2008, 9:15am

I agree that most theories are simple...I only worked with the prisoners paradox, martingales, and diffusion processes myself.

trendie · May 29, 2008, 9:32am

Quote:

Originally Posted by 0007

Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de Sautoy - he's generally worth a listen and good on the maths of music.

On now!

very good. just listened to it.

one clever example is the one about getting 5 heads, and how people "feel" that the next one has to be a tail, as "its due a turn".
imagine instead of flipping the coin, you put it in a box and lock it away for 20 years.
open the box after 20 years and then ask "do you still think the next one is due a tail"?

gets people to think how the coin cant have a memory, and how people connect things when there is no actual connection.

arabianights · May 29, 2008, 9:42am

Computer Laboratory - Probability

^ Very good free notes from a short corse on probability. Starts out assuming no knowledge and quickly covers some relatively advanced stuff.

May 29, 2008, 4:02am	#1
0007 Legendary Member Member Since Jun 2005 1,651 Posts	Probability theory etc Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de Sautoy - he's generally worth a listen and good on the maths of music. On now! __________________ 0007 - "A Gentleman should not be seen before mid-morning unless he is returning home from the night before"

May 29, 2008, 4:47am	#2
0007 Legendary Member Member Since Jun 2005 1,651 Posts	Re: Probability theory etc One major point that came out from this talk was how counter-intuitive probability theory is. Some lessons there for trading perhaps? eg - isn't it difficult to believe and act upon the facts and what you see happening, rather than what you think or want should happen. No new lessons there then. Just need to work on my mental discipline! (prog is normally available for "listen again" on BBC website - though it's still got last week's at present). __________________ 0007 - "A Gentleman should not be seen before mid-morning unless he is returning home from the night before"

May 29, 2008, 4:48am	#3
Pat494 Legendary Member Member Since Mar 2004 6,891 Posts	Re: Probability theory etc Way over my head but interesting that statistically you only need 23 people in the same room to have a good chance of 2 of those people having the same birthday. But 250 people to have to be in that room for a better than evens chance of someone else having the same birthday as yourself. __________________ OK guys let's get us some profits

May 29, 2008, 9:15am	#6
rachael24 Member Member Since May 2008 51 Posts	Re: Probability theory etc I agree that most theories are simple...I only worked with the prisoners paradox, martingales, and diffusion processes myself. __________________ Recent finance graduate with a credit counseling concentration.

May 29, 2008, 9:42am	#8
arabianights Legendary Member Member Since Jan 2007 6,782 Posts	Re: Probability theory etc Computer Laboratory - Probability ^ Very good free notes from a short corse on probability. Starts out assuming no knowledge and quickly covers some relatively advanced stuff. __________________ World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes. No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.

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