Probability theory etc

This is a discussion on Probability theory etc within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de ...

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Old May 29, 2008, 9:02am   #1
 
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Probability theory etc

Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de Sautoy - he's generally worth a listen and good on the maths of music.

On now!

(Sharky 29/10/14: A podcast of the radio program is available here: http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/...0529-0900a.mp3 and is linked from this page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/iots/all)
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Last edited by Sharky; Oct 29, 2014 at 9:11pm. Reason: Added link to the radio show
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Old May 29, 2008, 9:47am   #2
 
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0007 started this thread One major point that came out from this talk was how counter-intuitive probability theory is. Some lessons there for trading perhaps? eg - isn't it difficult to believe and act upon the facts and what you see happening, rather than what you think or want should happen.

No new lessons there then. Just need to work on my mental discipline!

(prog is normally available for "listen again" on BBC website - though it's still got last week's at present).
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Old May 29, 2008, 9:48am   #3
 
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Way over my head but interesting that statistically you only need 23 people in the same room to have a good chance of 2 of those people having the same birthday. But 250 people to have to be in that room for a better than evens chance of someone else having the same birthday as yourself.
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Old May 29, 2008, 9:51am   #4
 
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(prog is normally available for "listen again" on BBC website - though it's still got last week's at present).
On again Sunday evening 9.30 pm
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Old May 29, 2008, 12:17pm   #5
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Way over my head but interesting that statistically you only need 23 people in the same room to have a good chance of 2 of those people having the same birthday. But 250 people to have to be in that room for a better than evens chance of someone else having the same birthday as yourself.
most of probability theory is relatively easy. When you get Stochastic processes, Martingales, queuing, diffusion processes, percolation's etc. . . . then things can get pretty intense.

Also there are counter intuitive paradoxes about protocols that you see in probability theory (see prisoner's paradox) and also other famous paradoxes like Simpson's paradox.
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Old May 29, 2008, 2:32pm   #6
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0007 View Post
Sounds like there will be an interesting prog on subject topic Radio 4 @ 9.00 (8.00GMT) by prof Marcus de Sautoy - he's generally worth a listen and good on the maths of music.

On now!
very good. just listened to it.

one clever example is the one about getting 5 heads, and how people "feel" that the next one has to be a tail, as "its due a turn".
imagine instead of flipping the coin, you put it in a box and lock it away for 20 years.
open the box after 20 years and then ask "do you still think the next one is due a tail"?

gets people to think how the coin cant have a memory, and how people connect things when there is no actual connection.
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Old May 29, 2008, 2:42pm   #7
 
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Computer Laboratory - Probability

^ Very good free notes from a short corse on probability. Starts out assuming no knowledge and quickly covers some relatively advanced stuff.
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