GURU'S Outlook

Some thoughts of Robin Griffiths (Cazenove Capital Management)
1.Nikkei is near its bottom and is now finally good value from a P/E point of view. ( first time in decades )
2.Japanese banks mostly unaffected by West's sub-prime fiasco and so have money to invest.
3.Gold in a bearish correction phase. Will rise in months to come.

RB is rated highly for his usual insight into current markets

Interview with David Tice President of Prudent Bear Fund

For the last ten years the economy has been repeatedly invigorated by increasing credit, by such means as equity from privately owned homes and loans. The average American hasn’t saved nearly enough and has been recklessly overspending. This is like giving a drunk more tequilas to keep him going. The US Government has been doing exactly the same by using other country’s savings to vastly overspend in funding wars etc.
Recession could turn into Depression.

Pat494 said:

This is like giving a drunk more tequilas to keep him going.

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make mine a large one lah !

Don't have enough experience on or opinion about to comment on the Nikkei, but I am in FULL agreement that gold has still got room to go to the upside, insh'allah

Hi Rath I thought I would just make a note of some of the interviews on Bloomberg with top gurus. Pity to waste such tasty items and one can come back later to see who got it right. Here is another

Thoughts on Google by Clayton Moran
The recession is dragging down revenue from advertising. Last year revenue was up 60% but this year only 40% growth is expected. Anything better than 40% would be good. Double Click its recent acquisition isn’t expected to add much to revenue yet.

Pat494 said:

Hi Rath I thought I would just make a note of some of the interviews on Bloomberg with top gurus. Pity to waste such tasty items and one can come back later to see who got it right. Here is another

Thoughts on Google by Clayton Moran
The recession is dragging down revenue from advertising. Last year revenue was up 60% but this year only 40% growth is expected. Anything better than 40% would be good. Double Click its recent acquisition isn’t expected to add much to revenue yet.

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only 40% growth ?? the poor wee souls, let's have a whip round :cheesy:
personally i think the sub-prime write downs have all been overstated and much like Labour Ministers during 9/11, banks have taken the opportunity to write off alot of other stuff at the same time.
but, as far as I can understand, and I'm no expert, these write downs are based on the total liability the banks face, but is not truly indicative of what the actual failiure rates will be.
mark my words, come Q4, all these write downs wil suddenly be 'discovered' as unfounded as the failure rate doesn't reach apocalyptic proportions, and all these banks will suddenly start booking this as new revenue.
I'll be Long the banking sector later in the year, that's for ....

Louise Yamada of technical Research Advisors
She reckons today's rally of Citigroup is more of a kickback rally and the share price will not reach its previous levels for quite a while. She recommends Halliburton as a buy

Some thoughts of Nicolle Elliott from Mizuho Corp. Bank
1. Consolidation of $ holding at about 1.60
2. Yield of 30 yr Bond is slow reacting to markets
3. Money has moved from banks to Treasury instruments and gold. Gold will fluctuate between $850 - $1025 for next 6 months
4. Soft commodities not doing much
5. Grains have the attention at the moment. Used increasingly for bio-fuel. Less therefore for food especially in the Third World.

MP -- AH, a nerve has been touched !

rathcoole_exile said:

only 40% growth ?? the poor wee souls, let's have a whip round :cheesy:
personally i think the sub-prime write downs have all been overstated and much like Labour Ministers during 9/11, banks have taken the opportunity to write off alot of other stuff at the same time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . mark my words, come Q4, all these write downs wil suddenly be 'discovered' as unfounded as the failure rate doesn't reach apocalyptic proportions, and all these banks will suddenly start booking this as new revenue.
I'll be Long the banking sector later in the year, that's for ....

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the only problem ive ever found with history is that no one reads it !

having gone thru 3 or 4 of these "situations" in my lifetime, theres ALWAYS gonna be hell to pay ---- which is exactly where the smart money gets in !

going LONG the financials (what about the dollar ?) sounds exactly like those famous words from some famous investor whose words i just made up from what ive often heard !

WHAT COMES AROUND, GOES AROUND, and WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN (and its obvious reverse !

then theres one i live by --- TO INCREASE YOUR VIEW OF THE FUTURE, ALWAYS LOOK HIGHER THAN THE PRESENT (which i took to mean look at the monthly charts, dummy !

its essentially a never ending cycle, and that cycle is motivated by profit and that profit is motivated purely by greed and dreams of large xmas time bonuses (and also NOT getting fired)

the markets are the biggest, richest and most useless things in the world, but theres WAY too much money around to dismiss them.

Capitalism sometimes makes me sick !

mp

Interview with Susan Phillips ( former Fed Gov )

Today's data keeps a 25 point cut possible
The USA slowdown will impact China's exports.
The $600 bonus should help China's exports

So what if capitalism makes you feel sick - you'll still have to follow the money, won't you?

What do the charts tell you?

Mayfly

Pat494 said:

The $600 bonus should help China's exports

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Unless China has become a net oil exporter, unlikely.

It should help them get to the gas pumps for a partial refill....it's not going to go where they thought it was going to go....

MP --- WHAT THE HECK IS AN IRA or a 401k if NOT savings ???????

Pat494 said:

Interview with David Tice President of Prudent Bear Fund

For the last ten years the economy has been repeatedly invigorated by increasing credit, by such means as equity from privately owned homes and loans. The average American hasn’t saved nearly enough and has been recklessly overspending. This is like giving a drunk more tequilas to keep him going. The US Government has been doing exactly the same by using other country’s savings to vastly overspend in funding wars etc.
Recession could turn into Depression.

Click to expand...

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only one bone to pick with your statement, and all the fancy economists seem to ignore the pension plans of the american worker --- while other countries may "save" more, our "savings" are in the market, hopefully growing by far more than the banks pay.

after a while, i simply get tired of hearing this useless thought thrown around (nothing against you, just the thought !) and have to poke some holes in the airbag !

painless and simple analysis of the "refund", "rebate" or "giveaway"

with no place left to turn americans will pay BILLS and while china "MAY" see some of it, no one is rushing out with their $600 to buy toys in the summer !

not hard to figure, and im a lousy stinkin daytrader, not an investor !

David Nason - US Treasury
He has been conferring with Hank Paulson over the credit crunch crisis. He is in favour of having 5 bodies to regulate the US financial system. This includes a reformed FOMC. It looks very like the scapegoats for the crisis will be speculators - that's us traders. The top bankers plus an ageing Greenspan and a too slow Bernanke may well declare themselves clean of the blame which is wholly theirs. THE BASIC law of banking for the last 700 years has been don't lend money to people who can't repay it. Yeah well - they DID forget just that en masse !! The Government won't be trusting the bankers to do even that simple task now that they have failed so dismally recently !!
Their failure may seriously affect our business

Titbits from TV channels
Christine Lagarde ( French finance minister ) would like to see a stronger US dollar.
Poll shows 65% disappointed in Sarkozy ‘s achievements so far. Mrs S. is OK though imho!

Hank Paulson would also like to have a stronger US dollar and sees end of financial crisis.

Oil hit all time highs last week of $119.93

S&P commodity index up 52% this year. Marc Faber says commodities could drop in next few weeks

8 analysts expect copper to gain soon

Russian oil output dropped in April

Iran has carried through threat to price its oil in Euros

Alan Bell of Rensburg-Sheppard says gold gets bid up on fear trade and could go higher soon.
BoE unlikely to cut rates next week. They are concerned with rising inflation BUT the economy appears to be slowing. Rates should come down a bit later in the year. The banks should expect some redundancies.

Phil Roberts ( Barclays Capital ) reckons 1400 level of S&P significant as a new uptrend. Now is the time to buy equities. There should be 70 – 90 points in it short term. Longer term could be a possible reversion to 1200 level. Forecasts a lower price of gold than $875 per oz. Same with silver.