5% of traders make it?

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Old May 15, 2018, 5:08pm   #31
 
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I am more scared now that I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.
Paul Tudor Jones
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:22pm   #32
 
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
I think the heart pumps blood around the body, what is your opinion?

People should always trade with a stop.

Technical analysis is better than Fundamental analysis.

A 1 minute timeframe is better than a 5 minute timeframe.

Indicators are useful.

What's your opinion on these? ( Let the arguments begin )
Now you’re just taking the p1ss. You know technical analysis is just gobbledygook. Now there’s a word for ya.

The derailment has begun.
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:29pm   #33
 
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Everything is hindsight in trading, EVERYTHING.imo.

With TA we look at the hard right edge the new CANDLE with respect to what's behind it.

With FUNDIES always looking at last quarter as though that portends the future too.

Can't get around trading in HINDSIGHT. That's only "sight" we have!
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:29pm   #34
 
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
I am more scared now that I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.
Paul Tudor Jones
Hi piphoe,

This is a good statement. I often echo similar words myself.

I’m more scared of when on a winning streak as I know it won’t last, however, always after a big loss I have an even bigger win and therefore feel a lot more relaxed after write downs. Even my friends notice I party like no tomorrow after a big loss. I lost £16.5k the other week in one day, I was out like ‘hey, I’ve just won a million dollars’.

I think Paul Tudor Jones said it better though.
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:35pm   #35
 
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
Everything is hindsight in trading, EVERYTHING.imo.

With TA we look at the hard right edge the new CANDLE with respect to what's behind it.

With FUNDIES always looking at last quarter as though that portends the future too.

Can't get around trading in HINDSIGHT. That's only "sight" we have!
Right now I gotcha. Fundamentals should work in foresight (similar to TA) and is a big misconception.

Let me give you an example:

In TA you look at the left hand side and draw a conclusion or estimate to what will be printed on the right side.

With FA you look at future reports and expectations to gauge what will happen next.

Let me elaborate further on that:

You check the weather forecast to determine if you will have a barbecue. This is also how supermarkets plan their deliveries of fresh foods. Of course it doesn’t always play out and there is typically always some waste (like a traders loss).
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:47pm   #36
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In simple terms technical analysis is like driving a car while staring at the rear view mirror. You can see where you've been but haven't a hope in hell judging where you are going next.

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Old May 15, 2018, 5:50pm   #37
 
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This is the thing i take exception with:

"With FA you look at future reports and expectations to gauge what will happen next. "

Can't read read future reports because they are in the future, just like the next candle IS beyond the current one that's still forming. You can read the report that just past, and act on it but that's hindsight. Like trading the LAST CANDLE.
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Old May 15, 2018, 5:56pm   #38
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This is the thing i take exception with:

"With FA you look at future reports and expectations to gauge what will happen next. "

Can't read read future reports because they are in the future, just like the next candle IS beyond the current one that's still forming. You can read the report that just past, and act on it but that's hindsight. Like trading the LAST CANDLE.
What he means is you read reports that provide context to where things are and how those things are affecting future plans. It's like reading the latest central bank statement and deriving a tone that points to the future direction of policy. The expectations of future moves then drive price.

There is another element to this actually and that is immediate information that has short term implications on price. Inflation data for example comes out with a deviation of expectations.

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Old May 15, 2018, 6:15pm   #39
 
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"What he means is you read reports that provide context to where things are and how those things are affecting future plans.The expectations of future moves then drive price."

Like last 5 mins or 4hrs or whatever of candles provide expectations of future moves in TA?

Nothing is for sure, but you argue FA is reliable??
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Old May 15, 2018, 6:34pm   #40
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"What he means is you read reports that provide context to where things are and how those things are affecting future plans.The expectations of future moves then drive price."

Like last 5 mins or 4hrs or whatever of candles provide expectations of future moves in TA?

Nothing is for sure, but you argue FA is reliable??
Nothing like candles over whatever time period. They are just a print of price nothing more. How do you know if price poking through support is going to have legs using only candles? With FA you will have insight at least as to any factors that may be affecting price and this provides a more reliable signal. Ask yourself this, if TA was all you needed then why doesn't the institutions save billions on news terminals and analysts. Why does bloomberg or cnbc even exist if all that's needed is candle analysis?

If price pokes through support in fx do you take the trade?

I would only take it if there is news driving the move and the currency pair involved have deviating sentiment. So maybe the losing currency posted soft employment numbers and the winning currency posted better than expected inflation data. If none of that happens then I would just sit on my hands while you are hoping price to move when there is zero underlying reason for it.

So yes FA is more reliable by a long stretch.



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Old May 15, 2018, 7:06pm   #41
 
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Lee Shepherd started this thread FXX you’re bang on the money.

Piphoe, think of TA like this: regarding looking at a chart

I see a guy with a stack of money in his pocket walking down the road, he’s stopped in several hardware shops but not bought anything yet, where is his next stop?

Now he could be hungry and stop off at an eatery or quit and go home, that’s traders loss for you. But more than likely he willl go to the next hardware store.

This is predictive behaviour. Businesses use it all the time, hence when you look at your you tube recommendations, it’s most likely different to your mates. They’re not always right but more right than wrong. And this is how you make money.
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Old May 15, 2018, 7:44pm   #42
 
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Mmmm, it has settled down a bit lately but a few weeks ago when the DOW day’s range was a thousand points on several days and it was leaping about by hundreds in seconds it could hardly be down to fundamentals.

Similarly, when money is pouring into (or out of) funds the fund managers must buy (sell) whether they like it or not. This affects the price and it’s the money flow, not fundamentals, that has driven it.

Good fundamentals may well win out in the end, but there’s often a roller coaster ride on the way with the end miles away.
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Old May 15, 2018, 7:54pm   #43
 
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the "blue chips" are a sure bet!

my dad talks about the blue chips as sure investment

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Old May 15, 2018, 7:56pm   #44
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Mmmm, it has settled down a bit lately but a few weeks ago when the DOW day’s range was a thousand points on several days and it was leaping about by hundreds in seconds it could hardly be down to fundamentals.

Similarly, when money is pouring into (or out of) funds the fund managers must buy (sell) whether they like it or not. This affects the price and it’s the money flow, not fundamentals, that has driven it.

Good fundamentals may well win out in the end, but there’s often a roller coaster ride on the way with the end miles away.
Fundamentals stretch more than just the scheduled releases. You have sentiment that is driven by other factors including political and geopolitical, seasonal, weather, speaches, market correlations etc. Just as typical fundamental drivers at play work price movements so do these other factors.

If I am not mistaken, the Dow was subject to huge Volatility swings due to vix, interest rates, and risk off sentiment driven by geopolitical factors.

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Old May 15, 2018, 8:06pm   #45
 
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Fundamentals stretch more than just the scheduled releases. You have sentiment that is driven by other factors including political and geopolitical, seasonal, weather, speaches, market correlations etc. Just as typical fundamental drivers at play work price movements so do these other factors.

If I am not mistaken, the Dow was subject to huge Volatility swings due to vix, interest rates, and risk off sentiment driven by geopolitical factors.

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BS

including political and geopolitical, seasonal, weather, speaches, market correlations etc.

they can't predict the weather the next day, and they are meterooligists

and weather next week, fuggaboutit
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