The Eurozone – Post Apocalypse

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TheBramble

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Greece has exited the EZ. Spain has fallen. Italy and Portugal are as good as dead. Sovereign Bonds are defaulted to zero. Germany is in deficit. There is no Euro as a currency. There is no EU. It is Day-1 post-Apocalypse. It is Year Zero for Europe (geographical). The EU no longer functions.


To where and what do you immediately repatriate (or maintain your previously repatriated) liquid funds? (Country and physical or nominal or paper)

On which sectors do you focus for your capital growth and income and in which countries?

What is your estimate of N such that the Year+N is when Europe will resemble Europe pre-1990 in economic character?

What will Europe need then?

Where will they get it and what will they use to leverage it?

Who will be THE global power?
 
TheBramble said:
Greece has exited the EZ. Spain has fallen. Italy and Portugal are as good as dead. Sovereign Bonds are defaulted to zero. Germany is in deficit. There is no Euro as a currency. There is no EU. It is Day-1 post-Apocalypse. It is Year Zero for Europe (geographical). The EU no longer functions.

Wishful thinking... Spain will exit Euro before Greece.

Neither country nor any other exit the EZ

Euro currency will remain as well as the union.

To where and what do you immediately repatriate (or maintain your previously repatriated) liquid funds? (Country and physical or nominal or paper)

Any other country or currency outside of the EU will do.

On which sectors do you focus for your capital growth and income and in which countries? Any other country outside of the EU will do. UK is cool but make sure you buy a good brollie first.

What is your estimate of N such that the Year+N is when Europe will resemble Europe pre-1990 in economic character? N-A

What will Europe need then? Erm a good central bank in Germany and lots of boring accountants all living in Brussels.

Where will they get it and what will they use to leverage it? It will grow on trees and the Bundes Bank will promise to pay the bearer the tidy sum of what ever the trees are able to supply with a splash of ink thrown at it.

Who will be THE global power?
Click to expand...

Red Squirrels will be the Global Power (y)
 
TheBramble said:
Greece has exited the EZ. Spain has fallen. Italy and Portugal are as good as dead. Sovereign Bonds are defaulted to zero. Germany is in deficit. There is no Euro as a currency. There is no EU. It is Day-1 post-Apocalypse. It is Year Zero for Europe (geographical). The EU no longer functions.


To where and what do you immediately repatriate (or maintain your previously repatriated) liquid funds? (Country and physical or nominal or paper)
Click to expand...

China

On which sectors do you focus for your capital growth and income and in which countries?
Click to expand...

China

What is your estimate of N such that the Year+N is when Europe will resemble Europe pre-1990 in economic character?
Click to expand...

not North Korea.....so, probably, err, China

What will Europe need then?
Click to expand...
a starter, for 10 points.....China?

Where will they get it and what will they use to leverage it?
Click to expand...
ooh, this is a tuffy.....err, China and Prada-stamped gold bars

Who will be THE global power?
Click to expand...
THE Peoples republic of China....they might changed it to THE Peoples Empire after bailing out the UK and buying Buckingham Palace at 2 yuans to the quid

:eek:nline2lo
 
getting there...............B will answer you all in his own time
 
EZ != EU

If the EZ collapses, Euro will get replaced with Euro2 that will consist of much less members. EU will never die, it will only get more centralized in terms of United States of Europe. Actually, that is exactly what EU needs in order to survive. You can't have 50 countries with 50 different economies, 50 different politics and 50 different opinions acting as a whole and expecting to compete with large entities such as USA. Centralization is what will prevent such crisis in the future from happening.

China is weak. They can only prosper if we prosper. Why isn't China producing so much growth now? Do you really think it would if EU collapsed? Wishful thinking. If EU suffers a giant living standard fall, it is Europeans who will replace the Chinese as far as the Europe is concerned.

The global power will still be USA, I believe they have a solid 20-30 years more to go before the bubble bursts, unless they restructure their political and economical models.
 
flbroker said:
China is weak.
Click to expand...
Please back this up. China have massive surpluses, huge foreign ccy reserves, continued economic growth - possibly based on a construction bubble but its hell of a lot stronger than US. Weak compared to who?

flbroker said:
The global power will still be USA, I believe they have a solid 20-30 years more to go before the bubble bursts, unless they restructure their political and economical models.
Click to expand...
China is expected to be largest world economy by 2016.
There's concerted movement by china and other large ecconomies to move away from $. China has bought oil from iran using renminbi. China is moving away from export led growth, to creating demand internally.
10 Reasons Why The Reign Of The Dollar As The World Reserve Currency Is About To Come To An End

All of this has been widely documented for last few years. Where have you got the US have '20-30 years to go' figures from?

So the US will fair better than any other country if/when there's global economic collapse?

I agree with joules - asia/china will (continue to) be the focus for investment flows.
 
China being the biggest economy in the world doesn't mean a single thing. Chinese growth is weak and is falling so bad it forced their conservative government to cut interest rates. No more spending Westerners, no more production, no more exports, no more investments. They're slowing down. To ease the export fall that hit them pretty hard, they focused on domestic spending and started building. Now they have hundreds of empty building collecting dust, because there's no one to buy the properties, with construction companies in debt. As if that isn't enough, they keep wrestling with inflation. China is a developing country and their growth is correlated with our growth. When we grow, they grow and when we shrink, they shrink. Now they've found themselves in a pile of mess trying anything and everything, including stimulus packages, to continue the growth they had before 2008, but guess what, it's not working. Now what do you think it's going to happen in China if EU and US collapse?
 
Please define "global power"?

Keep in mind that "biggest economy in the world doesn't mean a thing".
 
flbroker said:
China being the biggest economy in the world doesn't mean a single thing. Chinese growth is weak and is falling so bad it forced their conservative government to cut interest rates. No more spending Westerners, no more production, no more exports, no more investments. They're slowing down. To ease the export fall that hit them pretty hard, they focused on domestic spending and started building. Now they have hundreds of empty building collecting dust, because there's no one to buy the properties, with construction companies in debt. As if that isn't enough, they keep wrestling with inflation. China is a developing country and their growth is correlated with our growth. When we grow, they grow and when we shrink, they shrink. Now they've found themselves in a pile of mess trying anything and everything, including stimulus packages, to continue the growth they had before 2008, but guess what, it's not working. Now what do you think it's going to happen in China if EU and US collapse?
Click to expand...

I concur with your views on the whole.

EU will in no way collapse but will consolidate (shrink) and then grow in more sturdy foot steps.

US, Asia, Africa and Latin America all joining the global economic world order and some resource re-allocation and income is taking place.

Get a grip and learn to deal/compete with it. Capitalism and analysts really do get ahead of them selves at times.


Moving forward the principal rules of sound money management prevails.
Diversify and manage risks and exposure. Objective being to stay in the game and not get blown away. Invest in stocks and shares, property and land.

I really envisage a 'tremendous' growth for the next 15-20 years starting from 2013-15 onwards. One needs to plan for cherry picking investment opportunities in all these continents. FTSE-100 companies are already doing this.

I would also move away from technology based companies into some more strategic ones such as alternative forms of energy, commodities and de-flux of people away from big cities and back into rural lands in the advanced developed countries.

We live in interesting times and are at the cusp of a new era. Think turn of the 19th century and the 20th. The 21st century will be an even more spectacular and brilliant in the evolvement of the human species and all the new inventions.

I'm so optimistic I could fly (y)
 
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rsh01 said:
Please define "global power"?

Keep in mind that "biggest economy in the world doesn't mean a thing".
Click to expand...


There will not be a global power - monopoly.

We will have several powers - oligopoly.


Countries will learn to play along with each other. Anyone who seeks a monopoly will get stomped down. ;)
 
Atilla said:
I concur with your views on the whole.

EU will in no way collapse but will consolidate (shrink) and then grow in more sturdy foot steps.

US, Asia, Africa and Latin America all joining the global economic world order and some resource allocation and income is taking place.

Get a grip and learn to deal/compete with it. Capitalism and analysts really do get ahead of them selves at times.


Moving forward the principal rules of sound money management prevails.
Diversify and manage risks and exposure. Objective being to stay in the game and not get blown away. Invest in stocks and shares, property and land.

I really envisage a 'tremendous' growth for the next 15-20 years starting from 2013-15 onwards. One needs to plan for cherry picking investment opportunities in all these continents. FTSE-100 companies are already doing this.

I would also move away from technology based companies into some more strategic ones such as alternative forms of energy, commodities and de-flux of people away from big cities and back into rural lands in the advanced developed countries.

We live in interesting times and are at the cusp of a new era. Think turn of the 19th century and the 20th. The 21st century will be an even more spectacular and brilliant in the evolvement of the human species and all the new inventions.

I'm so optimistic I could fly (y)
Click to expand...

I feel much better now.
 
Atilla

I know you are, that's why I feel better.

Bramble is getting depressed on the other thread, can you send your dog to eat his liver,
the mushrooms are working on his pessimistic side today. I am sure he will feel better afterwards.

I have to go now....Ciao.
 
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if the scenairio happens, the one play is short china, china is not a miracle, it is not special it is not "different this time" ,china depends on the west for its money, the recent figures from china show a very worrying devolopment, there are ghost cities cars being produced with no consumers for them.. the consumption is low because they make 40k cars and people get 400$ per month... do the math once, the bubble of personal debt in the west dies and deleveraging kicks in big time, china will go down the pan, the economic miracle is over,it perhaps never was just smoke and mirrors.
 
Mike Kshemaraja said:
Atilla

I know you are, that's why I feel better.

Bramble is getting depressed on the other thread, can you send your dog to eat his liver,
the mushrooms are working on his pessimistic side today. I am sure he will feel better afterwards.

I have to go now....Ciao.
Click to expand...

Thanks Mike,

What I'm going to do to Bramble is find out where he lives, go round his house and shoot his cat and boil his rabbits. :devilish:

PS Atilla doesn't like cats because when he was a puppy he once ate too many of them and fell ill. ;)
 
Atilla said:
Thanks Mike,

What I'm going to do to Bramble is find out where he lives, go round his house and shoot his cat and boil his rabbits. :devilish:

PS Atilla doesn't like cats because when he was a puppy he once ate too many of them and fell ill. ;)
Click to expand...

Great, when you come back, can you bring some mushrooms? Myself I also would like to feel the illusion of being a great trader. Thanks.

Ogni riferimento e' puramente casuale.
 
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