Neural networks - do rate them ?

Pat494

Pat494

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Hi,

Thought I would start a general thread on neural networks. They have been around for some time but have not really excelled at making predictions. I feel that there will be a second generation of NNs in the near future and they will greatly improve their performances.

There are some free nets if you google for them. I am trying out one called Tiberius. It has a 30 day trial period. Initial results i.e. last week
15th and 16th got the correct direction but the one for the 17th got it wrong. So 2 out of three.

Looking forward to hearing from any others, testing them out
 
That cortex NN is way beyond my level of understanding NNs.
Think I am more the plug and play sort. So more hunting in Googleland.
 
Hi Pat,

You might like to play around with this simplified NN indicator. It does produce some interesting results.
 

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Just downloaded Palisade

Only 15 day evaluation

It is then not free and may be too complicated to spend much time on.
 
There have been big advances made in NN's / AI over the last few years but at the 'retail' level I am not sure that you will find anything that will give you a reliable/consistent long term edge...Certainly the chances of a $49.95 / month type NN doing it for you are not good ! If I had a workinng consistent reliable NN I wouldn't be flogging it to retailers for a pittence, I'd be hawking it into the hedge funds etc or indeed raising serious capital to trade it myself. Like trading itself - sometimes the clues pointing to the higher probability are there - we just miss 'em 'cause emotions (like hope/greed) colour our rationale.

G/L
 
bbmac said:
There have been big advances made in NN's / AI over the last few years but at the 'retail' level I am not sure that you will find anything that will give you a reliable/consistent long term edge...Certainly the chances of a $49.95 / month type NN doing it for you are not good ! If I had a workinng consistent reliable NN I wouldn't be flogging it to retailers for a pittence, I'd be hawking it into the hedge funds etc or indeed raising serious capital to trade it myself. Like trading itself - sometimes the clues pointing to the higher probability are there - we just miss 'em 'cause emotions (like hope/greed) colour our rationale.

G/L
Click to expand...

Good point but over the years even the expensive ones will leak out, perhaps in slightly different forms to escape copyright etc.
 
If you want a free NN app try rapid miner, loads of useful data modelling shinnanagins.
 
Some wishful thinking ?
------------------------------

I know this is less than scientific/representative but if any one reading this thread now or in the future has made money year in year out from an NN/AI based approach please say so here. I'm guessing I won't have to check this thread again.

G/L

Pat494 said:
Good point but over the years even the expensive ones will leak out, perhaps in slightly different forms to escape copyright etc.
Click to expand...
 
Neural networks is yet another scientific sounding Trading approach to lure newbies in...........

that reminds me I must try to invent some more myself ...:sneaky:

N
 
Ideally I suppose one would want a direct feed into a neural net and a prediction for that timeframe appearing. So it updates ITSELF every 3 mins/5 mins/10 mins etc. and displays the result continuously.

Anyone know if there is a programme that can do this ?
 
Pat494 said:
Anyone know if there is a programme that can do this ?
Click to expand...

It might be worth having a look at a thread by barnix on forex TSD. There's a whole bunch of AI methods covered, NN, PNN, SVM etc, and there's usually decent examples of how you'd impliment them in metatrader, plus links to loads of open source and commercial apps.

Real time predictions from the trained network are certainly achievable, and IIRC there's MT4 code examples available at forex-tsd.

PNN's are definately trainable in real time (at least on a close of bar bais), even using a pile of horse manure like MT4 as long as the training sets are not too large.
 
I am dropping Tiberius too as it misses strong moves until it is too late like yesterday. Better at the gentle undulating moves!
I am waiting till the weekend when I get broadband before downloading big programmes.
 
On my website I show the performance from my own neural network forecasting the Eurusd on daily basis. The key is with which inputs/variables you feed the NN. My experience says I have never achieved a good performance using indicators like MACD, RSI, etc.... to feed my NN. Better look at the price increments for example in a short period.

Maybe this link can be useful ( I haven't tested their soft ) :
An Introduction to Neural Networks, including Neural Network FOREX Trading Tutorial, Neural Network Software, Neural Network Example Code for FOREX Trading, as well as Neural Networks Programming Guide
 
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