German Bond Auction Failure Today

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Old Mar 27, 2012, 12:51pm   #33
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

Shadow stats still calculates inflation exactly the way the BLS used to calculate it before they introduced the concept of hedonics and substitution, that is why shadow stats is credible. That is why the figures line up in the early 80's. That is why their figures match those reported by General Mills.

I read that the price of a 1st class stamp is going up 30% next month. Great news, buy 1st class stamps now, that's a guaranteed return!

Stamp prices soar to record highs - UK News - MSN News UK
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 12:55pm   #34
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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Originally Posted by The Leopard View Post
I am not aware of shadowstats, so I can't comment on them. But I do know that all politically-sensitive statistics are manipulated, quite shamelessly and openly in many cases. I suppose crime figures are the most obvious and notorious.

Whatever the true inflation figure is, it is certainly higher than the government is claiming.
Well, I have no problem with this as a hypothesis... However, based on the evidence available to me so far, I have not seen any actual tangible proof of this for inflation calculations. And, as if on cue, here's a post on the subject:
Argentina CPI Vs. Price Stats
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 12:56pm   #35
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

Substitution, Weighting And Hedonics? | VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 1:04pm   #36
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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Originally Posted by Martinghoul View Post
Well, I have no problem with this as a hypothesis... However, based on the evidence available to me so far, I have not seen any actual tangible proof of this for inflation calculations. And, as if on cue, here's a post on the subject:
Argentina CPI Vs. Price Stats
If only our own Government was as honest as that of Argentina(Falklands aside, although our position on that has nothing to do with the character of our Government). In fact, I long for the day when the probity of our public life once again approaches that of any tinpot third-rate banana republic run by kleptocrat generals. Then we would have something to be proud of in the UK.
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 1:06pm   #37
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
Shadow stats still calculates inflation exactly the way the BLS used to calculate it before they introduced the concept of hedonics and substitution, that is why shadow stats is credible. That is why the figures line up in the early 80's. That is why their figures match those reported by General Mills.

I read that the price of a 1st class stamp is going up 30% next month. Great news, buy 1st class stamps now, that's a guaranteed return!

Stamp prices soar to record highs - UK News - MSN News UK
No, this is a myth that has been thoroughly discredited by quite a bit of research... Moreover, comparing ShadowStats CPI with the PPI figures that the General Mills release refers to is incorrect.

Finally, John Williams, the economist behind ShadowStats, has been invited numerous times to make his exact methodology public and to debate it with other economists. He has refused every single one of these invitations and has refused to submit his "research" for peer review of any sort. Moreover, one has to be aware of the fact that ShadowStats is a business venture, which depends on publicity for revenue. All of the above suggests to me that ShadowStats is just not very credible, where actual economic data is concerned.

Finally, on the subject of UK stamps, what does that have to do with the subject of US inflation, which is what I thought we were discussing?
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 1:08pm   #38
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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If only our own Government was as honest as that of Argentina(Falklands aside, although our position on that has nothing to do with the character of our Government). In fact, I long for the day when the probity of our public life once again approaches that of any tinpot third-rate banana republic run by kleptocrat generals. Then we would have something to be proud of in the UK.
Well, my access to BPP isn't working at the moment, for some reason. However, if I am not mistaken, they have data for the UK, which should allow us to get an idea of how manipulated the UK data is.
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 1:15pm   #39
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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Well, my access to BPP isn't working at the moment, for some reason. However, if I am not mistaken, they have data for the UK, which should allow us to get an idea of how manipulated the UK data is.
There is no need. I can assure you that tractor production in the UK is up for the 84th year in a row, and the potato harvest this year breaks all records.

If I had to guess, when the Government was claiming RPI at 5%, I would have thought that equated to about 6.5% / 7% in reality. Obviously it is a little tricky as it depends on how one measures inflation. Different people experience it differently, of course.

That reminds me, exam results as an example. They improve every year without fail, and nobody suggests that those results weren't achieved. I also know of nobody that genuinely believes that those results represent an improvement in educational achievement.
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Old Mar 27, 2012, 1:30pm   #40
 
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Re: German Bond Auction Failure Today

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There is no need. I can assure you that tractor production in the UK is up for the 84th year in a row, and the potato harvest this year breaks all records.

If I had to guess, when the Government was claiming RPI at 5%, I would have thought that equated to about 6.5% / 7% in reality. Obviously it is a little tricky as it depends on how one measures inflation. Different people experience it differently, of course.

That reminds me, exam results as an example. They improve every year without fail, and nobody suggests that those results weren't achieved. I also know of nobody that genuinely believes that those results represent an improvement in educational achievement.
Yes, Comrade... I can't disagree with any of that.
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