Shorting Euro if Greece defaults

Ferru · Oct 25, 2011

I'm trying to pursuade someone not to short the Euro if Greece defaults.

IMHO, the response of the markets if that happens will be unpredictable. They might fall, but they might actually rise, depending on what the market anticipates will happen next. For example, people might buy Euros if they think that the Euro will be stronger with Greece out of it.

And I wonder whether market manipulators will buy Euros when everyone else is panicing and selling, and then push the market upwards and sell when the shorts' stops are triggered.

It could be a profitable trade, but it smacks of gambling IMHO.

What do you guys think?

Jeff

Martinghoul · Oct 25, 2011

I agree...

Lord Flasheart · Oct 25, 2011

Ferru said:
I'm trying to pursuade someone not to short the Euro if Greece defaults.

IMHO, the response of the markets if that happens will be unpredictable. They might fall, but they might actually rise, depending on what the market anticipates will happen next. For example, people might buy Euros if they think that the Euro will be stronger with Greece out of it.

And I wonder whether market manipulators will buy Euros when everyone else is panicing and selling, and then push the market upwards and sell when the shorts' stops are triggered.

It could be a profitable trade, but it smacks of gambling IMHO.

What do you guys think?

Jeff

I agree,Greece defaults euro long,probably

VendorExterminator · Oct 25, 2011

Ferru said:
I'm trying to pursuade someone not to short the Euro if Greece defaults.

Jeff

There's no "if" about it, they're toast, and have been for ages. This news is so discounted not even 'Poundland' would sell it.

BBSFL · Nov 8, 2011

True, but I think that by now, the markets have had enough of Greece and paper is just waiting to come back in. If Greece defaults, markets will have a 'FINALLY.. THANK GOD, NOW WE CAN MOVE ON WITH OUR LIVES' moment and Euro might actually begin to rise

Lord Flasheart · Nov 8, 2011

Grrek defaults,long term euro up,surely it becomes a stronger currency without greece

Luc.Chase · Jul 15, 2015

It is a gamble in the sense that the market could move so violently that you'd be stopped out... even if you bet in the correct direction.

Ironically perhaps, I think a default is bullish for EURO. I don't think a default means automatic expulsion from EZ. Based on supply and demand; there would be fewer EURO in existence after a default (debt creates money and both defaults and repayment destroy money), yet because Greece would no longer be in debt, it would become a lower risk for inward investment so investors would buy EURO to do that.

VinayakM · Apr 11, 2016

In mid-March, the ECB got aggressive and this is long-term positive for the markets. There was a boost to the QE program taking it to €80 billion monthly in April. Moreover, corporate bonds have been added.
I really think Europe is going to go through some trying times. Demography is to blame for this. There are 60 retirees for every 100 workers. If the population were to start falling, it would be interesting to see what would happen.

Demand is low because mature households own all the goods that they need. Young people can't find good jobs, so they have no money to buy much.

Crony capitalism has plagued Europe as in other countries as there is total misallocation of resources. Speculative asset bubbles could result and this just leads to nowhere.

Mr Sept · Apr 11, 2016

VinayakM said:
In mid-March, the ECB got aggressive and this is long-term positive for the markets. There was a boost to the QE program taking it to €80 billion monthly in April. Moreover, corporate bonds have been added.
I really think Europe is going to go through some trying times. Demography is to blame for this. There are 60 retirees for every 100 workers. If the population were to start falling, it would be interesting to see what would happen.

Demand is low because mature households own all the goods that they need. Young people can't find good jobs, so they have no money to buy much.

Crony capitalism has plagued Europe as in other countries as there is total misallocation of resources. Speculative asset bubbles could result and this just leads to nowhere.

Agreed.

radex78 · Apr 11, 2016

So what then likey impact to euro? whether this pair will break high and then uptrend on eurusd, or this pair will move down trend

Mr Sept · Apr 11, 2016

For me the Long term tell is in the Bond markets.

gerryg · Apr 13, 2016

Ferru said:
I'm trying to pursuade someone not to short the Euro if Greece defaults.

IMHO, the response of the markets if that happens will be unpredictable. They might fall, but they might actually rise, depending on what the market anticipates will happen next. For example, people might buy Euros if they think that the Euro will be stronger with Greece out of it.

And I wonder whether market manipulators will buy Euros when everyone else is panicing and selling, and then push the market upwards and sell when the shorts' stops are triggered.

It could be a profitable trade, but it smacks of gambling IMHO.

What do you guys think?

Jeff

Well as all EU members are bound between each other with debts and obligations, Greece crisis will undermine the stability of European economy what will shake Euro for sure. You don't need to be super analyst to know that.

kenedy · Apr 14, 2016

I am totally agree with you

Shorting Euro if Greece defaults

Ferru

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Martinghoul

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Lord Flasheart

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VendorExterminator

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BBSFL

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Lord Flasheart

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Luc.Chase

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VinayakM

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Mr Sept

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radex78

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Mr Sept

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gerryg

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kenedy

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