I'm calling BS

It looked like ES had made a swing low on the dailies by tea-time yesterday so I'm surprised you think this move is BS - well at least if you swing trade off the daily.
 
Just seems over the past few weeks we've seen big overnight moves and the either oscillation in the day session or pulling the rug from the people that try to climb on board.

I've been trading out of hours of late - again I traded about 4am EST today. Still - this is a hell of a move up off that swing low, considering the sky is falling in.

I'm standing aside. I'm going to do a "I'm not buying at these levels" and watch as it rises...
 
DionysusToast said:
Just seems over the past few weeks we've seen big overnight moves and the either oscillation in the day session or pulling the rug from the people that try to climb on board.

I've been trading out of hours of late - again I traded about 4am EST today. Still - this is a hell of a move up off that swing low, considering the sky is falling in.

I'm standing aside. I'm going to do a "I'm not buying at these levels" and watch as it rises...
Click to expand...

I'm not sure. I think we're gonna get a third wave, but i thought it was going lower first. Luckily thought isnt part of my strategy. I don't really care whether it goes up or down.
 
Not much different in the currency and metal markets. The eur crosses have had massive swings in either direction recently. The overnight moves could have been be faded in the morning and there was good money to be made but it certainly takes some cahones. I also don't trade that way and I'm glad.

Peter
 
brettus said:
I'm not sure. I think we're gonna get a third wave, but i thought it was going lower first. Luckily thought isnt part of my strategy. I don't really care whether it goes up or down.
Click to expand...

It's part of mine and I've found August and this month particularly good tbh
 
wackypete2 said:
Well done (y)

I couldn't stomach it really. :eek:

Peter
Click to expand...

I figured out that I should move stops a bit further away when the vol increases and it's paid dividends so to speak. I'm doing no intraday though atm - not since vix went north of 25.
 
Some lovely moves from GU and EU today. At the beginning didn't look good (a bit of a loss), but afterwards I was spoiled for choice(profit). Nice one Mr Market(y)
 
robster970 said:
I figured out that I should move stops a bit further away when the vol increases and it's paid dividends so to speak. I'm doing no intraday though atm - not since vix went north of 25.
Click to expand...

Nice one. Lower your risk, widen your stops and let it run.
 
It's certainly true that you need wider stops right now. Personally, I don't use the VIX or anything like that to gauge the volatility of the ES. What I use is.... the volatility of the ES.

A 50 point range day can quite easily be followed by a more normal 15 point range day. There's an indicator out there called "PriceActionSwing" and many more of their ilk. I think I got this one off BMT.

Anyway - here's a shot of yesterday at 10:05 to 10:16

9-27-20119-46-42PM.png


I just use the swing size as my guide. In this type of market a 4 tick stop would be madness.

The other indicator is the DOM - we had some 1000+ levels yesterday but in the main they were in the region of 500 or less per level. As such, it's going to be swinging harder.

As I'm using Tape/DOM, I don't really have the option of going to a higher timeframe for entries. I either just widen the stops & 'pucker up' or not trade. I do have the luxury of being able to trade the overnight and 3pm my time 4am eastern time seems to be a time where things are a bit more 'normal' right now.
 
vix is important to me for two reasons:

1. I'm interested in the previous days range from an observational PoV (was it a trending day, is it an inside day consolidating, is another swing point forming, etc) but VIX gives me a better composite view of implied vol IMO than using ATR. It's predictive power of past volatility is very good compared to a spot view.

2. The above is useful for me in two ways - (a) it now allows me to adjust stop placement to compensate for increased vol but more importantly (b) it allows me to target an area for a market based exit rather than anything fixed. Trying to do this with a spot measurement wouldn't work and I've personally never got on with ATR which lags too much for me by comparisson to VIX

BTW - why you trading outside RTH you lunatic?
 
robster970 said:
vix is important to me for two reasons:

1. I'm interested in the previous days range from an observational PoV (was it a trending day, is it an inside day consolidating, is another swing point forming, etc) but VIX gives me a better composite view of implied vol IMO than using ATR. It's predictive power of past volatility is very good compared to a spot view.

2. The above is useful for me in two ways - (a) it now allows me to adjust stop placement to compensate for increased vol but more importantly (b) it allows me to target an area for a market based exit rather than anything fixed. Trying to do this with a spot measurement wouldn't work and I've personally never got on with ATR which lags too much for me by comparisson to VIX
Click to expand...

Fair enough

robster970 said:
BTW - why you trading outside RTH you lunatic?
Click to expand...

Mostly the time zone - it's 8:30pm here when the US opens. It's almost impossible not to have a peek in the day time.

Even at 4am EST, the ES is thicker than the YM, NQ or CL ever is. In fact, from a tape reading perspective, it's probably easier.

There are some structural differences but you'd expect that with less depth anyway. I wouldn't trade at midnight EST but by 4am EST - London and Germany are active.So it follows that.
 
That makes sense now DT - I'm suprised it's thick enough to trade for the way you trade though but then again, those Algo's never sleep do they.....
 
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