GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

This is a discussion on GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this) within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; The first guidline that supports that the bounce from 2008 is an ending diagonal fifth wave is chanelling techniques. Every ...

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Old Jun 30, 2011, 8:50pm   #1
Joined Jun 2011
GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

The first guidline that supports that the bounce from 2008 is an ending diagonal fifth wave is chanelling techniques. Every bounce channels idealy as a zigzag rather than an impulse. Here is the wave [1] of 5(circle) example
Click the image to open in full size.

Now let us forget that the wave b pattern is most likely a triangle! (wave 2 can never be a triangle) some ellioticians have it labelled as a series of 1-2s which I'm in debate with on a structural basis. Anyhow, This bounce DOES NOT channell like a third wave infact it channels almost Idealy like a zigzag. Not to mention the common fibonacci relationship between the wave A and C as visible on the chart.

Here is wave (3) of primary wave 5

Click the image to open in full size.

As visible the structure not only channels idealy as a zigzag, But holds the most common relationship between waves A and C - Equality

Now lets look at the final bounce intermediate wave (5) of primary wave 5
Click the image to open in full size.

As visible ,again, The bounce channels perfectly as a zigzag rather than a wave 3 impulse! now lets forget for a minute that the subsequent correction is long enough in duration to almost eliminate the possibility of a wave 4. The internals wave of the bounce share a fairly common relationship wave C=1.382x wave A.

I'm well aware of the FACT that the most important guidline of a diagonal triangle is not met in this case (wave 4 & 1 overlap & deep retracements of motive legs in the diagonal) But every other guidline that exists for this formation, is not only met, But is Ideal for that matter.

Look at the divergence between wave 1, 3 & 5 on the following chart, that is an original characteristic of a diagonal pattern.
Click the image to open in full size.

Notice in this picture the wave 3 (circle) was explosive hence the guideline stated by R.N. Elliott himself that diagonal patterns occur when a move has gone 'too far, too fast' is met.

Now ending diagonals happen at terminal wave due to weakness right? hence its position as a wave C/ wave 5... Now allow me to think out loud... what position in a sequence would you expect the most exaustion? Wave 5 of C/ Wave 5 of 5 so 'logically' those would be the places where most ending diagonals should occur.

Click the image to open in full size.

Now this takes me back to a chart dating back to the very begining of this credit expansion era. 1932 gold bottomed along with almost all comodities and the dow. since those lows we have a 1-2-3-4-5? Now if the bounce from 1999 is truly a fifth wave of cycle degree (that ofcourse if it doesnt extend, if it does that would make the wave we are in primary wave 1(circle)) then that would mean that the bounce from 0ct 2008 is the wave 5 of 5 which is the position in a sequence where you'd usually expect to reflect the most exhaustion

Happy Trading
Ahmed Farghaly

EDIT: This means that we should get to 670 at least in less time than the diagonal took to form which is roughly 31 months. Typically 1/3rd to 1/2 the time it took to form

Last edited by barjon; Jul 3, 2011 at 10:05pm. Reason: removed ad link
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Old Jun 30, 2011, 9:25pm   #2
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Re: GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

Gold 670?

Very brave
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Old Jun 30, 2011, 10:19pm   #3
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Re: GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

afarghaly9 started this thread If this proves to be the correct interpretation in terms of wave labels 670 would be considered a consevative target :-). If price breaks bellow 1445 without making a new high. I will be certain that an ending diagonal is the accurate count (the one visible on this thread), but would not turn a blind eye to the possibility (low in this matter) of further slight highs, due to the fact that the wave 5 of an ending diagonal could be an ending diagonal of smaller degree, even if so, The rallies should be limited to 1692 for this count to remain valid. My "Thats it" level in terms of bulls would be a break bellow 1308. That would be the ultimate confirmation that gold has topped even if the count presented here is inacurate! and gold does make it to new highs :-)

Again I'd advise you guys to keep the alternate counts in mind as visible on the link in the 'thread starter' post

Thanks
Ahmed Farghaly

Last edited by afarghaly9; Jun 30, 2011 at 11:05pm.
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Old Jul 2, 2011, 8:30am   #4
 
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Re: GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

1300
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Old Jul 2, 2011, 11:31pm   #5
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Re: GOLD elliott wave analysis( you're gonna wanna see this)

Thanks for that, enjoyable analysis...
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