Another probability question

This is a discussion on Another probability question within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by TheBramble I can’t help feeling that even with a fairly weighted coin, you’d have a 90% probability ...

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Old Jun 6, 2011, 6:11pm   #16
 
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Re: Another probability question

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Originally Posted by TheBramble View Post
I can’t help feeling that even with a fairly weighted coin, you’d have a 90% probability of getting more heads than tails a lot sooner than 41.
Depends on the weight of the coin. 60% isn't much far from 50% standard coin, so it makes sense you'd have to toss it many times to reach that confidence level.


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Perhaps my grasp of probability is so far out of whack with reality (wouldn’t be the only thing that is)
Definitely true in your case !
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 11:29am   #17
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Re: Another probability question

I would never have 90% confidence. The only way you can be any more "confident" is to record what was thrown before.

If i threw a tails, the chance was 0.4 = 40%
I Threw again, the chance of another tails is 0.4 x 0.4 = 16% Threfore chance of heads = 84%
I Threw again, the chance of yet another tails is 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 6.4% therefore Heads = 95.4%

You could say "statistically" the chances of a heads are improving but they are still really only 60% each time as each toss is independant of the previous tosses

I think thats right. Would've been easier to look at google instead of giving me the opportunity to waste my time!
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 6:23pm   #18
 
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Re: Another probability question

Faith in humanity...waning....
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 7:30pm   #19
 
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Re: Another probability question

your all barking up wrong trees on this thread
or im just barking
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 7:38pm   #20
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Re: Another probability question

It's Ok, they're binary trees.
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 7:42pm   #21
 
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Re: Another probability question

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It's Ok, they're binary trees.
thats ok then
thanks
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Old Jun 7, 2011, 7:45pm   #22
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Re: Another probability question

Aw come on, that was quite clever; for this thread...
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