51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by shadowninja Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to ...

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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:39pm   #17
 
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Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:41pm   #18
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread
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Originally Posted by tar View Post
There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
That's the thing. if the real odds are that bad, expect some lean times ahead especially in Darren World where things never go according to plan.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:43pm   #19
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
Yeah... I don't trade enough as I'm more a swinger. It'd work fine for my sports trading (100 matched bets yesterday!).
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:47pm   #20
 
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Re: 51%

how is that going? are you ready to start a journal here about it?

(ignore the ph challenge thread, that tldr)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:58pm   #21
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Sports trading? CBA with a journal; only doing the PH challenge thing cos it sounded like fun. Doing pretty well considering "it's gambling, innit". I made some dumb errors a fortnight ago by trying to trade a couple of high risk (but high profit) markets and got stung. Now sticking to safer (for my technique) markets. Can make 100% yield per week if I remain cautious. Have taken nearly 500 trades since and all is going well so far.

Will let you know in a month whether I'm still in it or not. It's been an interesting learning experience, anyway, and as suggested earlier, has made me think about my financial trading so it hasn't been a waste of time even if I decide to stop.

I recommend everyone have a go at sports trading. It can be done without risk of real money, too, via the 25 offer. (If anyone's reading, PM me about the 25 offer.)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:56pm   #22
 
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Re: 51%

I think it's easy to become over-obssessed with strike rate when it's only one part of the equation and probably the least important part.

Here are some figures I produced recently over a 20 Wk period manually testing various parts of an Hourly system. I used a fixed entry, SL, etc. in order to test various exit methods. The final results are almost certainly over-optimistic (it's easy in retrospect) but the figures should still be useful for relative comparitive purposes. The figures show HR then total pips collected by end of testing period.

Exit A - 60% - 976
Exit B - 48% - 2146
Exit C - 39% - 2776
Exit D - 56% - 1997
Exit E - 51% - 2265
Exit F - 47% - 2156
Exit G - 48% - 3065
Exit H - 42% - 3073
Exit I - 43% - 3358
Exit J - 38% - 3624
Exit K - 33% - 3020
Exit L - 21% - 2403
Exit M - 14% - 379

What surprised me is that HR and over-all profitability were almost inversely related. To get over 3000 pips required a HR < 50% and the highest HR (Exit A) made least pips apart from M, explained below.

(The big drop off at the end is almost certainly due to the testing period being too short as these were very loose trailing stop methods that excel over long time periods with very extended draw-downs.)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 4:13pm   #23
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
These sorts of high percentages may be possible during hot streaks or certain market conditions, but not in the long run.
As a matter of interest, what do you call the long run?

I've been trading a strategy with an 89% strike rate (0.5 R) since November 2009.

Not long enough?
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 4:33pm   #24
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
As a matter of interest, what do you call the long run?

I've been trading a strategy with an 89% strike rate (0.5 R) since November 2009.

Not long enough?
stupid question for obvious reasons
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