51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by arabianights more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with ...

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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:21pm   #15
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
more to point 51% rate on 1:1 system is never going to be anything anyone with a brain is goign to trade in practice as there simply isn't that certainty...
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:34pm   #16
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Re: 51%

There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:39pm   #17
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
Ha! That's also been gnawing at my mind, too. Have to adapt one's trading style to suit the market so just how do you measure probability? It goes up and down depending on how quickly I adapt.
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:41pm   #18
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by tar View Post
There is a difference between strike rate and real odds , ie : if you trade system X and your strike rate is 62% this doesnt mean the real odds for this system is also 62% , it could be 49% but you managed to achieve 62% in the period in question .
That's the thing. if the real odds are that bad, expect some lean times ahead especially in Darren World where things never go according to plan.
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:43pm   #19
 
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Re: 51%

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Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
You could look at the series of returns and just use standard statistical analysis, null hypothethis being that system is not 51%+ reliable...

(and cause of that you are not goign to get a big enough sample size so you can't do it, in pracitce...)
Yeah... I don't trade enough as I'm more a swinger. It'd work fine for my sports trading (100 matched bets yesterday!).
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:47pm   #20
 
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Re: 51%

how is that going? are you ready to start a journal here about it?

(ignore the ph challenge thread, that tldr)
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Old Mar 30, 2011, 1:58pm   #21
 
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Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Sports trading? CBA with a journal; only doing the PH challenge thing cos it sounded like fun. Doing pretty well considering "it's gambling, innit". I made some dumb errors a fortnight ago by trying to trade a couple of high risk (but high profit) markets and got stung. Now sticking to safer (for my technique) markets. Can make 100% yield per week if I remain cautious. Have taken nearly 500 trades since and all is going well so far.

Will let you know in a month whether I'm still in it or not. It's been an interesting learning experience, anyway, and as suggested earlier, has made me think about my financial trading so it hasn't been a waste of time even if I decide to stop.

I recommend everyone have a go at sports trading. It can be done without risk of real money, too, via the £25 offer. (If anyone's reading, PM me about the £25 offer.)
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