51%

This is a discussion on 51% within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Sports trading? CBA with a journal; only doing the PH challenge thing cos it sounded like fun. Doing pretty well ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Mar 30, 2011, 2:58pm   #21
 
shadowninja's Avatar
Joined Jul 2007
Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Sports trading? CBA with a journal; only doing the PH challenge thing cos it sounded like fun. Doing pretty well considering "it's gambling, innit". I made some dumb errors a fortnight ago by trying to trade a couple of high risk (but high profit) markets and got stung. Now sticking to safer (for my technique) markets. Can make 100% yield per week if I remain cautious. Have taken nearly 500 trades since and all is going well so far.

Will let you know in a month whether I'm still in it or not. It's been an interesting learning experience, anyway, and as suggested earlier, has made me think about my financial trading so it hasn't been a waste of time even if I decide to stop.

I recommend everyone have a go at sports trading. It can be done without risk of real money, too, via the £25 offer. (If anyone's reading, PM me about the £25 offer.)
__________________
The markets can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational.
My sports trading challenge: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...challenge.html
shadowninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 30, 2011, 3:56pm   #22
 
Vorbis's Avatar
Joined Dec 2005
Re: 51%

I think it's easy to become over-obssessed with strike rate when it's only one part of the equation and probably the least important part.

Here are some figures I produced recently over a 20 Wk period manually testing various parts of an Hourly system. I used a fixed entry, SL, etc. in order to test various exit methods. The final results are almost certainly over-optimistic (it's easy in retrospect) but the figures should still be useful for relative comparitive purposes. The figures show HR then total pips collected by end of testing period.

Exit A - 60% - 976
Exit B - 48% - 2146
Exit C - 39% - 2776
Exit D - 56% - 1997
Exit E - 51% - 2265
Exit F - 47% - 2156
Exit G - 48% - 3065
Exit H - 42% - 3073
Exit I - 43% - 3358
Exit J - 38% - 3624
Exit K - 33% - 3020
Exit L - 21% - 2403
Exit M - 14% - 379

What surprised me is that HR and over-all profitability were almost inversely related. To get over 3000 pips required a HR < 50% and the highest HR (Exit A) made least pips apart from M, explained below.

(The big drop off at the end is almost certainly due to the testing period being too short as these were very loose trailing stop methods that excel over long time periods with very extended draw-downs.)
__________________
All mental activity is reflex action, a conditioned response to circumstance.
Vorbis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 30, 2011, 5:13pm   #23
 
trader_dante's Avatar
Joined Aug 2005
Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by donaldduke View Post
These sorts of high percentages may be possible during hot streaks or certain market conditions, but not in the long run.
As a matter of interest, what do you call the long run?

I've been trading a strategy with an 89% strike rate (0.5 R) since November 2009.

Not long enough?
__________________
Lessons from successful traders: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...l-traders.html

Increasing trader performance: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...rformance.html

Advice for getting a job in trading: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...b-trading.html
trader_dante is offline Coach/Trainer   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: bbmac
Old Mar 30, 2011, 5:33pm   #24
 
arabianights's Avatar
Joined Jan 2007
Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
As a matter of interest, what do you call the long run?

I've been trading a strategy with an 89% strike rate (0.5 R) since November 2009.

Not long enough?
stupid question for obvious reasons
__________________
World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes.

No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
arabianights is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: trader_dante
Old Mar 30, 2011, 5:37pm   #25
 
trader_dante's Avatar
Joined Aug 2005
Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
stupid question for obvious reasons
Hi Arabian.
__________________
Lessons from successful traders: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...l-traders.html

Increasing trader performance: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/firs...rformance.html

Advice for getting a job in trading: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...b-trading.html
trader_dante is offline Coach/Trainer   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 30, 2011, 6:46pm   #26
 
shadowninja's Avatar
Joined Jul 2007
Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
89% strike rate (0.5 R)
This is pretty much what my conclusion has tended towards - high strike rate, lower R/R... account grows. Aim for 4 R and you'd end up taking more losses than you want.
__________________
The markets can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational.
My sports trading challenge: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...challenge.html
shadowninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 30, 2011, 7:04pm   #27
 
arabianights's Avatar
Joined Jan 2007
Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
Hi Arabian.
My point is... you haven't said how many trades you've taken! If you've taken 1000 trades in that time with that record, it's stunning. If you've taken 1, not so much...

It is the number of trades that matters. The time period absolutely doesn't (except in so far as you can say it's seen various different market conditions, although arguably the markets since nov 09 have been pretty similar)
__________________
World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes.

No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
arabianights is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: Hotch
Old Mar 30, 2011, 7:07pm   #28
 
arabianights's Avatar
Joined Jan 2007
Re: 51%

(And it goes without saying, if your system includes any discretionary or non quantifiable aspect it is not a system for the purposes of this thread, but non quantitative types have huge difficulty with this point)
__________________
World's leading STIRs chatroom - www.propboards.com - register, then click on chat. Don't let the lack of posts on the forum put you off - the action happens in the chatroom. Targeted at locals, but hedge funds, brokers (including IDBs), market makers, and a few sizable amateurs are all represented. When it's quiet, banter is encouraged and anything goes.

No nuisance spread betters please. Anyone else welcome.
arabianights is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: the hare , Hotch
Old Mar 30, 2011, 7:35pm   #29
 
shadowninja's Avatar
Joined Jul 2007
Re: 51%

shadowninja started this thread Yep.
__________________
The markets can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational.
My sports trading challenge: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trad...challenge.html
shadowninja is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Mar 30, 2011, 7:48pm   #30
 
Hotch's Avatar
Joined Jul 2008
Re: 51%

Quote:
Originally Posted by arabianights View Post
If you've taken 1, not so much...
I'd be quite impressed if he managed an 89% win rate in 1 trade.
__________________
I'm just the guy that never tried, I'm just the stupid **** with brilliant luck and sometimes a bright idea.
Hotch is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: trader_dante
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)