lemmings economists and ramblings of a bricklayer

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doobs

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Ok, firstly i want to state that i am not a good trader, truth be told i'm not even a half decent one. In fact if i had use of hubble i might just be able to make out my breakeven point like some far off distant galaxy.

However , over the last couple of weeks i think i've had a bit of a revelation- (to me anyway), and this is it...........

Price moves to and from extremes because a bunch of thick ***** who posses no common sense (economists) continually stuff up in their predictions about the state of the economy.Then we as traders all charge off in mass panic/ histeria mode like a bunch of lemmings just because the economists didn't get it right?!

So take cable over the last couple of weeks.Firsty up she goes, but why? probably because inflation is creeping up more than the ***** said it would and because of this the BOE are bound to raise interest rates. But why did inflation go up? Is there any chance it was mostly to do with the rise in VAT? So surely this is a one off and not something to get too hot under the collar about? Shouldn't the muppets have factored this into their predictions?

Next down she comes- why? because theres been negative growth when positive was 'predicted' But why? Is it anything to do with the fact that the country was at a fekin standstill under a pile of snow for the best part of the month- now surely they would have factored that one in?

Fek, just totally lost my train of thought now- don't quite Know where i'm going with this, but it did seem important. I did make make a few bucks yesterday as i was completely convinced they were way off in their predictions for growth because of the snow, but 'spose that could have been luck! Now I'm reading everywhere that the place is going to the dogs, so lets just try to ride the bear train down until next time, when no doubt doom and gloom predictions will be proven false and we can all charge around like a mad bull.

Any thoughts? or are you all :sleep:
 
These were the economists who failed to see the depression/great recession..or if they did they were nutured/silenced as it was classed as a high crime versus humanity to dis the model of an perpetual expanding economy by creating more and more money (debt).

Voicing any opposition versus this policy had you labled as a conspiracy theorist nut, Roubini dared to rail against accepted wisdom and immediately his private life was brought into sharp focus, Taleb was ridiculed and the BBC decided to cut his news appearances to one. In short, were economists allowed to do their job or were they marginalised and replaced by soothsayers working from a public relations script?

Consider 'on message' idiots such as Stephanie Flanders from the BBC or Robert Peston..however Liam Hallaghan who used to appear on C4 did have talent, now dumped in The Telegraph with AEP who also bravely refused to alter his anti establishment stance for 4-5 years.

A couple of whistle blowers at director level working at RBS and HBOS (as it then was) were dismissed for saying in 2006-07 that this ever exanding money supply policy was madness as the beast would need ever bigger bonfire of perpetual money supply simply to stand still if the rails came off...which they did and we're still de-railed and picking up speed as we head for another crash.

There is that joke that you could swap meteoroligists and economists and the predictions for both would still be as equally accurate/inaccurate, but look what they have to deal with, how can any make any senses of the fiscal and monetary policy of the USA and UK?

So what to do? Yep you might as well play it as you see it, follow price as best you can, or take a medium term view and position trade (hedge) your sterling away from 5% inflation (imho it's more than that) and 1% interest rates.
 
Metaphorically speaking,...if you choose to put one of these in,..expect to be led around by it !!
 
doobs said:
Ok, firstly i want to state that i am not a good trader, truth be told i'm not even a half decent one. In fact if i had use of hubble i might just be able to make out my breakeven point like some far off distant galaxy.

However , over the last couple of weeks i think i've had a bit of a revelation- (to me anyway), and this is it...........

Price moves to and from extremes because a bunch of thick ***** who posses no common sense (economists) continually stuff up in their predictions about the state of the economy.Then we as traders all charge off in mass panic/ histeria mode like a bunch of lemmings just because the economists didn't get it right?!

So take cable over the last couple of weeks.Firsty up she goes, but why? probably because inflation is creeping up more than the ***** said it would and because of this the BOE are bound to raise interest rates. But why did inflation go up? Is there any chance it was mostly to do with the rise in VAT? So surely this is a one off and not something to get too hot under the collar about? Shouldn't the muppets have factored this into their predictions?

Next down she comes- why? because theres been negative growth when positive was 'predicted' But why? Is it anything to do with the fact that the country was at a fekin standstill under a pile of snow for the best part of the month- now surely they would have factored that one in?

Fek, just totally lost my train of thought now- don't quite Know where i'm going with this, but it did seem important. I did make make a few bucks yesterday as i was completely convinced they were way off in their predictions for growth because of the snow, but 'spose that could have been luck! Now I'm reading everywhere that the place is going to the dogs, so lets just try to ride the bear train down until next time, when no doubt doom and gloom predictions will be proven false and we can all charge around like a mad bull.

Any thoughts? or are you all :sleep:
Click to expand...

Disagree. Will post later.
 
doobs said:
Ok, firstly i want to state that i am not a good trader, truth be told i'm not even a half decent one. In fact if i had use of hubble i might just be able to make out my breakeven point like some far off distant galaxy.

However , over the last couple of weeks i think i've had a bit of a revelation- (to me anyway), and this is it...........

Price moves to and from extremes because a bunch of thick ***** who posses no common sense (economists) continually stuff up in their predictions about the state of the economy.Then we as traders all charge off in mass panic/ histeria mode like a bunch of lemmings just because the economists didn't get it right?!

So take cable over the last couple of weeks.Firsty up she goes, but why? probably because inflation is creeping up more than the ***** said it would and because of this the BOE are bound to raise interest rates. But why did inflation go up? Is there any chance it was mostly to do with the rise in VAT? So surely this is a one off and not something to get too hot under the collar about? Shouldn't the muppets have factored this into their predictions?

Next down she comes- why? because theres been negative growth when positive was 'predicted' But why? Is it anything to do with the fact that the country was at a fekin standstill under a pile of snow for the best part of the month- now surely they would have factored that one in?

Fek, just totally lost my train of thought now- don't quite Know where i'm going with this, but it did seem important. I did make make a few bucks yesterday as i was completely convinced they were way off in their predictions for growth because of the snow, but 'spose that could have been luck! Now I'm reading everywhere that the place is going to the dogs, so lets just try to ride the bear train down until next time, when no doubt doom and gloom predictions will be proven false and we can all charge around like a mad bull.

Any thoughts? or are you all :sleep:
Click to expand...

Ex brickie here also. Feel the pain lol
 
For all you brickies out there :)
 

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Black Swan said:
These were the economists who failed to see the depression/great recession..or if they did they were nutured/silenced as it was classed as a high crime versus humanity to dis the model of an perpetual expanding economy by creating more and more money (debt).

Voicing any opposition versus this policy had you labled as a conspiracy theorist nut, Roubini dared to rail against accepted wisdom and immediately his private life was brought into sharp focus, Taleb was ridiculed and the BBC decided to cut his news appearances to one. In short, were economists allowed to do their job or were they marginalised and replaced by soothsayers working from a public relations script?

Consider 'on message' idiots such as Stephanie Flanders from the BBC or Robert Peston..however Liam Hallaghan who used to appear on C4 did have talent, now dumped in The Telegraph with AEP who also bravely refused to alter his anti establishment stance for 4-5 years.

A couple of whistle blowers at director level working at RBS and HBOS (as it then was) were dismissed for saying in 2006-07 that this ever exanding money supply policy was madness as the beast would need ever bigger bonfire of perpetual money supply simply to stand still if the rails came off...which they did and we're still de-railed and picking up speed as we head for another crash.

There is that joke that you could swap meteoroligists and economists and the predictions for both would still be as equally accurate/inaccurate, but look what they have to deal with, how can any make any senses of the fiscal and monetary policy of the USA and UK?

So what to do? Yep you might as well play it as you see it, follow price as best you can, or take a medium term view and position trade (hedge) your sterling away from 5% inflation (imho it's more than that) and 1% interest rates.
Click to expand...


spot on. (y)
Honestly never heard of the better economists that you mentioned, shows how much i know :eek:. Quite disconcerting that if they don't tow the line then they are sidelined.
 
doobs said:
Ok, firstly i want to state that i am not a good trader, truth be told i'm not even a half decent one. In fact if i had use of hubble i might just be able to make out my breakeven point like some far off distant galaxy.

However , over the last couple of weeks i think i've had a bit of a revelation- (to me anyway), and this is it...........

Price moves to and from extremes because a bunch of thick ***** who posses no common sense (economists) continually stuff up in their predictions about the state of the economy.Then we as traders all charge off in mass panic/ histeria mode like a bunch of lemmings just because the economists didn't get it right?!

So take cable over the last couple of weeks.Firsty up she goes, but why? probably because inflation is creeping up more than the ***** said it would and because of this the BOE are bound to raise interest rates. But why did inflation go up? Is there any chance it was mostly to do with the rise in VAT? So surely this is a one off and not something to get too hot under the collar about? Shouldn't the muppets have factored this into their predictions?

Next down she comes- why? because theres been negative growth when positive was 'predicted' But why? Is it anything to do with the fact that the country was at a fekin standstill under a pile of snow for the best part of the month- now surely they would have factored that one in?

Fek, just totally lost my train of thought now- don't quite Know where i'm going with this, but it did seem important. I did make make a few bucks yesterday as i was completely convinced they were way off in their predictions for growth because of the snow, but 'spose that could have been luck! Now I'm reading everywhere that the place is going to the dogs, so lets just try to ride the bear train down until next time, when no doubt doom and gloom predictions will be proven false and we can all charge around like a mad bull.

Any thoughts? or are you all :sleep:
Click to expand...

As Black Swan suggests, building a model of the economy is actually a rather complex task. Complex enough that you've made two simple errors just in your short post. First, the recent inflation figures refer to December, before the VAT increase took place, and second, the GDP figures for 4Q were disappointing after adjusting for the effect of snow (which economists would have done anyway).

If you want to build a full computer model to better simulate the UK economy than the consensus economist position, so to trade ahead of major economic releases, then please go ahead - you'll make a fortune. After all that's what all the PhDs and other smart-arses at places like Goldmans are constantly trying to do - why shouldn't a brickie take them on and beat them at their own game ;)
 
Jack o'Clubs said:
and second, the GDP figures for 4Q were disappointing after adjusting for the effect of snow (which economists would have done anyway).
Click to expand...

So why did Mr Osborne blame "the wrong kind of snow" then?

(OK, I was joking about "the wrong kind of", but I did hear a report that he had blamed the weather.)
 
montmorencyt2w said:
So why did Mr Osborne blame "the wrong kind of snow" then?

(OK, I was joking about "the wrong kind of", but I did hear a report that he had blamed the weather.)
Click to expand...

Political expediency, of course - blame the weather, not the fact that the fundamentals might be deteriorating.

From Lex on the day of the GDP release:

UK GDP

Published: January 25 2011 15:06 | Last updated: January 25 2011 19:12

Talk about the wrong kind of snow. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures produced a horrible surprise on Tuesday. An expected rise of 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter turned out to be a fall of 0.5 per cent. Bad winter weather was blamed. The UK indeed suffered the coldest December in 100 years, according to the Meteorological Office, with mean temperatures 5ºC below the 1971-2000 average.
For context, the UK economy has not contracted by so much, other than during periods of recession, since the second quarter of 1984. That was down to the outbreak of the miners’ strike. Snow cannot be blamed for the whole 1 percentage point shortfall this time. If it made only a half percentage point difference, that is concerning. Business and financial services output, not obviously prone to bad weather, contracted by 0.7 per cent. Construction obviously suffered but industrial production overall was up, thanks in part to a weaker pound. What is more, November temperatures were only 1.6ºC colder than average and October was as normal as it gets.

Retailers who were hit by a big fall in sales at the end of the year were also quick, as always, to blame the elements. Sure it was cold, but it was also the driest December since 1963. Maybe some other noise distorted the GDP numbers. Only diehard optimists, however, should dismiss the possibility that the economy is now fundamentally weakening again.

Certainly, markets did not buy the snow line. Sterling dropped by some 2.5 cents against the dollar at one point. Fair enough. The case for buying sterling rested on rate rises within the next few months and the case for such rises has now weakened drastically. Deep fiscal cuts ahead will further dent demand and temper inflation expectations. Food for thought all round – rain, hail or shine.
 
The most pointless exercise must be to shout at a national or multi-national economy that we're over-exposed to risk and in a bubble. Even if you're right, and even if they listen, nobody can do much based on what you say. When assets are appreciating it makes sense to buy them. When credit is cheap, it makes sense to borrow more.

Maybe the likes of Taleb were right, but nobody got rich by being out of a market.
 
Jack o'Clubs said:
Political expediency, of course - blame the weather, not the fact that the fundamentals might be deteriorating.

From Lex on the day of the GDP release:

UK GDP

Published: January 25 2011 15:06 | Last updated: January 25 2011 19:12

Talk about the wrong kind of snow. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures produced a horrible surprise on Tuesday. An expected rise of 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter turned out to be a fall of 0.5 per cent. Bad winter weather was blamed. The UK indeed suffered the coldest December in 100 years, according to the Meteorological Office, with mean temperatures 5ºC below the 1971-2000 average.
For context, the UK economy has not contracted by so much, other than during periods of recession, since the second quarter of 1984. That was down to the outbreak of the miners’ strike. Snow cannot be blamed for the whole 1 percentage point shortfall this time. If it made only a half percentage point difference, that is concerning. Business and financial services output, not obviously prone to bad weather, contracted by 0.7 per cent. Construction obviously suffered but industrial production overall was up, thanks in part to a weaker pound. What is more, November temperatures were only 1.6ºC colder than average and October was as normal as it gets.

Retailers who were hit by a big fall in sales at the end of the year were also quick, as always, to blame the elements. Sure it was cold, but it was also the driest December since 1963. Maybe some other noise distorted the GDP numbers. Only diehard optimists, however, should dismiss the possibility that the economy is now fundamentally weakening again.

Certainly, markets did not buy the snow line. Sterling dropped by some 2.5 cents against the dollar at one point. Fair enough. The case for buying sterling rested on rate rises within the next few months and the case for such rises has now weakened drastically. Deep fiscal cuts ahead will further dent demand and temper inflation expectations. Food for thought all round – rain, hail or shine.
Click to expand...

"Question Time" tonight has the politicians blaming the snow for slow economic growth:)
 
doobs said:
Ok, firstly i want to state that i am not a good trader, truth be told i'm not even a half decent one. In fact if i had use of hubble i might just be able to make out my breakeven point like some far off distant galaxy.

However , over the last couple of weeks i think i've had a bit of a revelation- (to me anyway), and this is it...........

Price moves to and from extremes because a bunch of thick ***** who posses no common sense (economists) continually stuff up in their predictions about the state of the economy.Then we as traders all charge off in mass panic/ histeria mode like a bunch of lemmings just because the economists didn't get it right?!

So take cable over the last couple of weeks.Firsty up she goes, but why? probably because inflation is creeping up more than the ***** said it would and because of this the BOE are bound to raise interest rates. But why did inflation go up? Is there any chance it was mostly to do with the rise in VAT? So surely this is a one off and not something to get too hot under the collar about? Shouldn't the muppets have factored this into their predictions?

Next down she comes- why? because theres been negative growth when positive was 'predicted' But why? Is it anything to do with the fact that the country was at a fekin standstill under a pile of snow for the best part of the month- now surely they would have factored that one in?

Fek, just totally lost my train of thought now- don't quite Know where i'm going with this, but it did seem important. I did make make a few bucks yesterday as i was completely convinced they were way off in their predictions for growth because of the snow, but 'spose that could have been luck! Now I'm reading everywhere that the place is going to the dogs, so lets just try to ride the bear train down until next time, when no doubt doom and gloom predictions will be proven false and we can all charge around like a mad bull.

Any thoughts? or are you all :sleep:
Click to expand...

It's all BS. Figures are as fixed as Las Vegas. Luckily i was on the right side of it.
 
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