Average Weekly Earnings

This is a discussion on Average Weekly Earnings within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by spreader_legger When you use fundies, do you day or swing trade? I am a swinger...

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Old Feb 5, 2011, 1:48am   #31
Joined Sep 2010
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

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Originally Posted by spreader_legger View Post
When you use fundies, do you day or swing trade?
I am a swinger
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 3:49pm   #32
 
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Joined May 2008
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

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Originally Posted by tdrtw View Post
Account is in USD. For the risk, I consider this a fairly average return overall.

I also found a screen shot from a very good month back in 2009 (but this is not the norm). It shows even with more losses than wins, you can come out ahead by letting the profits become larger than the losses.

I have absolutely ZERO control of the actual outcome of a trade. The only thing I can control is my ability to follow my predefined rules of engagement. I try to stay focussed on "Did I follow my rules this month" as opposed to "what percentage gain" can be made.

I didn't follow my rules fully during Jan, 2011. I have fully programmed in my rules to a computer program I run from a server in my house and don't actually trade anymore. There was a couple of errors in my software which deviated from my rules. I corrected the software and have deployed the fixes. I also overrode a trade which actually was correct, but I made a visual mistake and thought my program had it wrong when it was correct. My goal for the month of Feb is to have zero mistakes and follow my method to the tee. What ever the actual outcome is, it is (I have no control over that).

I believe people become fixated on the things they cannot control such as "how much money will I make", or "what is the hot system I can use" (you can control what system/method you learn/buy, you just cannot control the results). But everyone is different and you need to go with what works for you.

I am also a little uncomfortable posting this as it gives a level of "expectation" now on my part personally. But I challenged myself to post it to give real results in a real account, and also to solidify in myself that my goal is to follow my own rules and not shoot for things I cannot control (such as a pre conceived amount of money to make). And to give back to. I started out here a long time ago and I can say if it wasn't for this forum I wouldn't be where I am today in a journey that I'm still on and have a long way to go :-)

Good for you for posting. I don't necessarily follow all the numbers, but don't worry, I'm not querying it or anything. Interesting that you have all the r:R for each trade. Have you computed an average? That number at the bottom didn't quite look like an average ... not sure what it was.

Do you compute average win:loss ratios, per period, or running average to date, or whatever? Also average win size to average loss size?

I'm always interested in automatic traders, because it sounds so much like the holy grail and I've never been convinced that it can work, at least not the kind of system the average retail trader would have access to. (I'm not talking about what goes on in the megabanks and whatnot). Do you find you are continually having to tweak the system to cope with changing market conditions, or does it basically run year in year out?
Also I don't recognise all the instruments you are trading (my ignorance, sorry....I mostly stick to FX ...I recognise a few). What's your range of instruments?

Was 2010 as good, better or worse than 2009 for you?

Oh yes, last question, what platform is this on?
(Don't worry; I'm not trying to steal your ideas. I have no intention of becoming an automated trader. I'm just interested, that's all).

Cheers,
Mike
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 6:41pm   #33
Joined Mar 2010
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

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Originally Posted by temporarilylight View Post
That's much more than I was lead to believe! Interesting.
Anyway, I dont earn that much.

Only 1 or 2 posters claiming to earn more from trading so far

I'd like to know what methods those that do claim to be profitable use. Not necessarily in any real deatail, but it might be that no TA guys make money and those that use fundamentals instead or some relatively unique or unheard of method are the ones that do for example.

People that I have come accross who do make money trading hint that they dont use charts or scalp the order book, and even suggest that they dont really use fundamentals. Im always left wondering what im missing, lol.

Personally, i've come a long way and tend to win more than I lose nowadays, but accept that at best, for me , trading will just be extra money on top of any other income I have

I actually had a very strong January. 40% of last years income trading. I very rarely trade charts. I trade my fundamental view on a currency pair, and i may use charts to find a good support or resistence.

I mainly trade my edges, which i keep to myself and maybe a few others, as if many others knew it might lose its edge.

£500 a week is an easy target for me, as i risk about £250+ per trade anyway.
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 6:48pm   #34
 
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Joined Jul 2007
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

Quote:
Originally Posted by tdrtw View Post
Account is in USD. For the risk, I consider this a fairly average return overall.

I also found a screen shot from a very good month back in 2009 (but this is not the norm). It shows even with more losses than wins, you can come out ahead by letting the profits become larger than the losses.

I have absolutely ZERO control of the actual outcome of a trade. The only thing I can control is my ability to follow my predefined rules of engagement. I try to stay focussed on "Did I follow my rules this month" as opposed to "what percentage gain" can be made.

I didn't follow my rules fully during Jan, 2011. I have fully programmed in my rules to a computer program I run from a server in my house and don't actually trade anymore. There was a couple of errors in my software which deviated from my rules. I corrected the software and have deployed the fixes. I also overrode a trade which actually was correct, but I made a visual mistake and thought my program had it wrong when it was correct. My goal for the month of Feb is to have zero mistakes and follow my method to the tee. What ever the actual outcome is, it is (I have no control over that).

I believe people become fixated on the things they cannot control such as "how much money will I make", or "what is the hot system I can use" (you can control what system/method you learn/buy, you just cannot control the results). But everyone is different and you need to go with what works for you.

I am also a little uncomfortable posting this as it gives a level of "expectation" now on my part personally. But I challenged myself to post it to give real results in a real account, and also to solidify in myself that my goal is to follow my own rules and not shoot for things I cannot control (such as a pre conceived amount of money to make). And to give back to. I started out here a long time ago and I can say if it wasn't for this forum I wouldn't be where I am today in a journey that I'm still on and have a long way to go :-)
Great job, forget public expectations and just keep grinding away
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 7:11pm   #35
 
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Joined Nov 2003
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

Quote:
Originally Posted by brettus View Post
I actually had a very strong January. 40% of last years income trading. I very rarely trade charts. I trade my fundamental view on a currency pair, and i may use charts to find a good support or resistence.

I mainly trade my edges, which i keep to myself and maybe a few others, as if many others knew it might lose its edge.

£500 a week is an easy target for me, as i risk about £250+ per trade anyway.
Looks like the non-chart guys are winning, as I suspected would be the case.

Trading the FX using fundamentals, I assume you trade longish term? Is your 'edge' to do with fundamental information?
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 9:46pm   #36
Joined Mar 2010
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

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Originally Posted by redart View Post
Looks like the non-chart guys are winning, as I suspected would be the case.

Trading the FX using fundamentals, I assume you trade longish term? Is your 'edge' to do with fundamental information?
I trade short and long term. Short term is mainly information based and is really more of an accumulation of opinions, levels and understanding of price action. I think understanding how the market will react to data releases is always a good thing. Non farm payrolls for example.
Bad Figure - Sell USD is the initial reaction. Then after risk off. Buy USD.
Good Figure - Buy USD is the initial reaction. Then after risk on. Sell USD.
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Old Feb 5, 2011, 10:32pm   #37
Joined Sep 2010
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

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Originally Posted by redart View Post
Looks like the non-chart guys are winning, as I suspected would be the case.

Trading the FX using fundamentals, I assume you trade longish term? Is your 'edge' to do with fundamental information?
I trade both long and short term time frames.
The long term trades are because the trade is going in the right direction.
The short term trades are the ones where the trade is going in the wrong direction.
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Old Feb 7, 2011, 9:35pm   #38
Joined Oct 2006
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

Hi Mike,

>>Have you computed an average?

Overtime I find for every $1 risked, I earn between 10 and 30 cents. I tend to focus on this number closely each month as it gives me a true look at system performance. % gain is a misnomer as it doesn’t take into reflection risk. $ amount per week is even a worse number to look at as it really gives me no information at all about the system performance.

I use a time parameter to find a trade and quite often no trades will be found. So I just try again the next day. Often I will not trade at all for the day.


>> Do you compute average win:loss ratios, per period, or running average to date, or whatever? Also average win size to average loss size?

I’ve been using a fixed ratio of 2:1 risk/reward and find the win rate hovers around 42%.

In the past I’ve tried increasing it to 3:1 but find that the win rate declines down to the mid 30%. I prefer a 2:1 with a higher win rate which suits me. Both are profitable but the 3:1 has more swing both +ve and –ve. I’ve also experimented with a Risk/Reward based off market parameters but I prefer the 2:1. Suits me well and I rest easy with this.


>> I'm always interested in automatic traders, because it sounds so much like the holy grail and I've never been convinced that it can work, at least not the kind of system the average retail trader would have access to.

For me, automatic trading is the holy grail. It’s quite amazing to watch a computer program that you designed and wrote executing trades exactly to your rules in the market place. I am yet to accept it as norm and am still impressed by it each day. It is like having the perfect employee :-)

>> I've never been convinced that it can work

Of course if you think it won’t work, then it never will :-)

For me, I like to have a clear set of trading rules to go by. To the point that there is no ambiguity. A pattern can either be traded, or it can’t, there is no grey area where one has to go by hunch or gut feel.

These rules can then be written down on paper and someone else could follow them because they are so clearly defined.

For a long time I traded my rules. I would have a pen and paper when the market opened up, I would scan the charts and manually put my orders in etc…

I then learnt that Interactive Brokers has an API interface where one can write their own software. As I specialize in software and database design, I then designed order and money management software. I would still look at the charts and fire the program manually but the calculations for position size and actual orders to buy/sell where handled by the program. Saved me a lot of hassles.

The next step was to fully automate it. Instead of looking at the charts, my software now gets the data feed, and makes the decisions for me based off of my rules. No intervention is needed by me whatsoever. I bought a server computer that is hidden away in my house (so my kid can’t mess with it) and runs the automatic trading programs. Each morning I start it up before the markets open. I then can check on it remotely during the day to make sure all is inline and at the end of each day do my daily clean up and be ready for the next day. It’s really quite boring, un event ful, and monotonous. When I say I day trade Commodities (which I rarely say as it brings out the wrong type of conversation) people envision multiple charts, stress, screaming buy/sell, hair pulled out, no sleep etc… I knew what I wanted out of a system and designed it to be how I wanted – uneventful, boring and taking up as little of my time as possible.

>> Do you find you are continually having to tweak the system to cope with changing market conditions, or does it basically run year in year out?

In terms of how I enter the market and money management - I have never changed the rules of my system.

I have tweaked with Risk/Reward but that had nothing to do with market conditions.

>> What's your range of instruments?

Last month and this month it is Crude Oil, Wheat and Soy Beans.

I like to mix it up a bit. Sometimes I bring Corn, S&P or Dow Futures in for a few months, it depends. I use the same rules over every entity.

Often I find one Contract will be stella and others won’t for the month. Last month Soy Beans was the stella one and Wheat and Oil were break even.

>> Was 2010 as good, better or worse than 2009 for you?

2010 was worse. I got greedy and strayed from my system for a while :-) But that is another story.


>> (Don't worry; I'm not trying to steal your ideas. I have no intention of becoming an automated trader. I'm just interested, that's all).

Actually I’m not worried at all. I’m sure each person who is actually making money in the markets consistently is trading very different from each other. Which tells me the system is irrelevant but I bet they all have one thing in common – good money management, and wins bigger than losses. I find it interesting how people become obsessed with the “what should I buy”, and tend to ignore the more important parts of trading. How I enter the market is ridiculously simple, it’s how I exit the market that matters.

>> Great job, forget public expectations and just keep grinding away

Thanks Blackbison, I appreciate the feedback. I’ll keep that in my mind when the weather is overcast and it’s hard to get out of bed – “just keep grinding away”. Good, clear advice.
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Old Feb 7, 2011, 9:44pm   #39
Joined Jan 2009
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

tdrtw, interesting story, somewhat similar to my own as I run an algo from a (hidden) PC in my house which I occasionally remote access. I run the API from Amibroker into Interactive Brokers and believe I've finally weeded out all the little issues now.

Are you aware of TWSStart? This will keep you logged into IB indefinitely.. no further need to log in!

Teamviewer is good for remote access, and free for personal use.
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Old Feb 8, 2011, 5:41am   #40
Joined Oct 2006
Re: Average Weekly Earnings

Hi meanreversion. I have heard of TWSStart. I should look into it. Right now it's pretty simple for me to boot the PC, login to TWS via the security card, and start 3 java application programs for each contract I trade. I like to shut down the server each day and start it again in the morning.

My Java application is a console app that connects to an Oracle Database. I use a combination of Java Code and Oracle Stored Procedures along with the database for data storage.

I keep all trades in the database and have a bunch of sql reports I run to monitor system performance.

I've got to say, it was a really rewarding experience writing the software.

I use logmein for remote access.

We should get in contact off line. It would be great to talk to someone who is ahead of the curve on this. It seems to be a rare set of skills to merge the seemingly chaotic world of trading with the structured world of software and make them work together.
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