Crappy futures markets.

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

I am fed up with the rubbish, choppy indices we've been seeing since the start of the year. Hardly had a decent day at all.

So far I've had 4 trades - one goodish win, two just over break-evens and one loss (stupid loss, but at least it was reduced). Three on YM, one on NQ, nothing from ES, in two weeks. Up a whopping 2.25% for the year so far, and bored off my t1ts.

Waiting for the right conditions is a significant part of my "edge"

lol

but it is difficult sometimes when there really is bugger all going on.

Any one else feeling fed up with getting eye-strain while your buttocks go numb?

meanreversion · Jan 14, 2011

You're bored and up money. Sounds ideal.

Be careful what you wish for ..

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

meanreversion said:
You're bored and up money. Sounds ideal.

Be careful what you wish for ..

Not especially good money - risk per trade is 2.5%.

You are right though - I suppose I'm venting to remind myself not to trade to trade. This is the hardest part of trading for me.

meanreversion · Jan 14, 2011

4 trades in 2 weeks is kinda low frequency .. is this a typical number of trades or fewer than usual?

Why don't you start selling put spreads on the S&P, I think there's a thread about it somewhere.

robster970 · Jan 14, 2011

Don't think it's that bad tbh. 1% down on daytrading from 14 trades, 7% up on swing off 1 trade, both on ES. Not that choppy IMO, trending along due to the Bernanke put.

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

meanreversion said:
4 trades in 2 weeks is kinda low frequency .. is this a typical number of trades or fewer than usual?

Why don't you start selling put spreads on the S&P, I think there's a thread about it somewhere.

LOL

.

It's pretty low I suppose - I'd normally expect an average of about 1 per day across mini Dow, Nasdaq and S&P, plus gold and oil.

It varies a lot though, I can go days without a trade, sometimes there might be 2 or 3 in a day (rarely though).

I expect January to start slow, but this is getting to me a bit. Really 2 of those trades I shouldn't have taken (I am very picky), so it should have been 2 trades rather than 4. 1 per week (and this is intraday) is trying my patience.

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

robster970 said:
Don't think it's that bad tbh. 1% down on daytrading from 14 trades, 7% up on swing off 1 trade, both on ES. Not that choppy IMO, trending along due to the Bernanke put.

What TF / number of ticks are you using? I stick to 15 minute.

robster970 · Jan 14, 2011

5min for the day trading (I haven't quite got the hang of it yet tbh), 8hours for the swing trading.

As for taking trades I shouldn't I've done a couple of those this week........not too smart, still learnin'

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

robster970 said:
5min for the day trading (I haven't quite got the hang of it yet tbh), 8hours for the swing trading.

As for taking trades I shouldn't I've done a couple of those this week........not too smart, still learnin'

Could not make 5 minute work, I just bled out what I made on 15, so in the end I ditched 5 altogether.

robster970 · Jan 14, 2011

Pazienza said:
Could not make 5 minute work, I just bled out what I made on 15, so in the end I ditched 5 altogether.

I like the pace, suits me. Just need that last push from breaking even now.

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

robster970 said:
I like the pace, suits me. Just need that last push from breaking even now.

This is the hardest part, it seems like you'll never make it. The thing that changed it for me was trading less - holding off for the really good trades, and letting all the so-so ones go by. It's galling to see so many that would have won escape, but it cuts down on a lot of losers, and it was just impossible for me to progress otherwise.

The other thing I started to do was to reduce risk whenever I could, so now I rarely take a full loss. Again, it's galling to get your reduced stop clipped before the trades goes off in the right direction, but over time the difference between taking half or two thirds losses compared to full ones is pretty compelling.

robster970 · Jan 14, 2011

I learnt the effect of cutting losers quickly way before risk in autumn of last year. It's rare for price to get near my stop. I don't actually trade with a stop any more on intraday (of course it's there for swing).

I'm getting a sense it is down to trade selection and execution but I'm still in that cycle of trying to figure out which ones to let go of and which ones to keep hold of. It does feel a bit like being in the tumble drier but perversely I'm quite enjoying it as I'm past the losing money phase so it's just grinding on now.

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

robster970 said:
I learnt the effect of cutting losers quickly way before risk in autumn of last year. It's rare for price to get near my stop. I don't actually trade with a stop any more on intraday (of course it's there for swing).

I'm getting a sense it is down to trade selection and execution but I'm still in that cycle of trying to figure out which ones to let go of and which ones to keep hold of. It does feel a bit like being in the tumble drier but perversely I'm quite enjoying it as I'm past the losing money phase so it's just grinding on now.

You sound like you're close. Just keep going

. Persistence and patience are what most people lack and why they'll never make it at this.

robster970 · Jan 14, 2011

Misquoting somebody from this week, "Becoming profitable is an expensive process of elimination"

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

robster970 said:
Misquoting somebody from this week, "Becoming profitable is an expensive process of elimination"

There's no substitute for experience and screen time, that's true enough.

wackypete2 · Jan 14, 2011

Forex has sucked too since new year started. Low volatility, choppy ranges, no direction. At this rate I'll be flipping burgers by March and seeing candlestick patterns in the french fry bag.

Peter

Pazienza · Jan 14, 2011

wackypete2 said:
Forex has sucked too since new year started. Low volatility, choppy ranges, no direction. At this rate I'll be flipping burgers by March and seeing candlestick patterns in the french fry bag.

Peter

I don't trade it but I do keep an eye on it. I've seen the odd good day or two but like you say most of it looked like a nightmare. These are the times when you really need your discipline and the patience of a saint, it's too easy to get chopped up there when things are moving like this.

Crappy futures markets.

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