This is a discussion on Frustrated trader, need advice within the General Trading Chat forums, part of the Reception category; Hi guys hows it goin? I'm a newish trader in Forex who's been trading demo and micro accounts on and ...

 The following members like this post: meanreversion
Dec 16, 2010, 2:47pm   #5
Joined Nov 2008

Quote:
 Originally Posted by glyder Live in the charts..

Amen to that man..

 Dec 16, 2010, 3:03pm #6 Joined May 2010 Re: Frustrated trader, need advice Hi AT, I have no practical advice I'm afraid, being in a similar position to you. There's a recentish thread, though, about whether people believe there's a 'holy grail' in trading - the interesting thing I took from it is that most of the 'real' traders here say there is no secret to this game. You make of it what you can/want and to become consistantly profitable is a matter of hard graft and trial and error and finding what works for you. I, like you, am learning from books and sites like this and can't help feeling sometimes that I'm missing the vital factor that everyone else knows. Perhaps not particularly useful advice, but thought it might help get your head back up.
 Dec 16, 2010, 3:47pm #7 Joined Nov 2010 Re: Frustrated trader, need advice Here is my assumptions. 4 weeks of trading (20 days), 5 trades per day = 100 trades Probability to lose 15 points 0.63 Probability to win 30 points 0.37 So that gives us very generous positive expected value (11%) Put this figures into simulator and the probability of loss after 100 trades is 24% What you experience is called variance and you do not have enough of data to make any meaningful conclusion about your strategy.
Dec 16, 2010, 3:51pm   #8
Joined Apr 2008

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 6am Here is my assumptions. 4 weeks of trading (20 days), 5 trades per day = 100 trades Probability to lose 15 points 0.63 Probability to win 30 points 0.37 So that gives us very generous positive expected value (11%) Put this figures into simulator and the probability of loss after 100 trades is 24% What you experience is called variance and you do not have enough of data to make any meaningful conclusion about your strategy.
You can't possibly say that because you don't know if his strategy has a positive expectancy in the first place... These calculations only mean something if you have a massive sample size from testing\live trading to give realistic win\loss ratios.

Dec 16, 2010, 4:05pm   #9
Joined Nov 2010

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LiamH You can't possibly say that because you don't know if his strategy has a positive expectancy in the first place...

The point is that even very good strategy may experience the loss in the short term. And 100 trades IS short term.

Dec 16, 2010, 4:36pm   #10
Joined Dec 2003

Quote:
 Originally Posted by glyder Hi, I skim read your post, really i think you are going through what many go through, nothing out of the ordinary. 8 months is not a long time to be learning. It can take years.
Not according to Dinsey Toast is doesn't. He seems to think a few weeks is all it takes then the aspiring trader can compete toe-to-to with people who've taken years to perfect their craft.

Dec 16, 2010, 4:50pm   #11

Joined Aug 2005

Quote:
Quickest way to understand where you are going wrong is to see some of your trades.

So if you are happy to make some live calls, I'm happy to provide some feedback.

Tom
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Dec 17, 2010, 10:12am   #14
Joined Nov 2008

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