One Shot Condors

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luckyd1976

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"One Shots" (5 to 10 Monthly Condor Picks)

May Picks
GOOG 650/640/490/480
-I may hold off on the on the top (Bear Call Spread) until we see if GOOG has another great open, but Im definitely placing the 490/480 (Bull Put Spread) for some quick income. With earnings out of the way, Its highly doubtful this will retrace (or fill the gap) back to its prior Last resistance of 485.

CME 570/560/410/400
-Now this one is alittle tricky(er). With all the talk of Regulation/Consolidation in the states, CME may be stripped of their Clearing houses. If the governments wins and the consolidation of the regulatory agencies are to happen, LOOK OUT BELOW for CME! Without their clearing side nothing making $ will be left. So this one has way more news risk than most picks of mine but if strictly News free this is a really high probable play. Be careful if support is broken at 458.

GS 220/210/155/145
-Back again on my CashFlowing condor list. Love this company, Cream of the Financial crop. Steady, low correlation to housing mess, Best traders on the street, and given a well deserved premium. So very predictable for Condors.

MON 160/155/105/100
-Like GOOG, IM waiting on the open to decide on the Bear Call Side, but LOVE the Bull Put Spread here. With a defined resistances on the way down and earnings out of the way, High Probable trade here for some quick income.

SHLD 120/115/80/75
-Pretty good looking rangebound stock chart here with defined S/R. Watch for breakouts but love this pick for NCredit of $0.35+.
 
luckyd1976 said:
"One Shots" (5 to 10 Monthly Condor Picks)

May Picks
GOOG 650/640/490/480
-I may hold off on the on the top (Bear Call Spread) until we see if GOOG has another great open, but Im definitely placing the 490/480 (Bull Put Spread) for some quick income. With earnings out of the way, Its highly doubtful this will retrace (or fill the gap) back to its prior Last resistance of 485.

CME 570/560/410/400
-Now this one is alittle tricky(er). With all the talk of Regulation/Consolidation in the states, CME may be stripped of their Clearing houses. If the governments wins and the consolidation of the regulatory agencies are to happen, LOOK OUT BELOW for CME! Without their clearing side nothing making $ will be left. So this one has way more news risk than most picks of mine but if strictly News free this is a really high probable play. Be careful if support is broken at 458.

GS 220/210/155/145
-Back again on my CashFlowing condor list. Love this company, Cream of the Financial crop. Steady, low correlation to housing mess, Best traders on the street, and given a well deserved premium. So very predictable for Condors.

MON 160/155/105/100
-Like GOOG, IM waiting on the open to decide on the Bear Call Side, but LOVE the Bull Put Spread here. With a defined resistances on the way down and earnings out of the way, High Probable trade here for some quick income.

SHLD 120/115/80/75
-Pretty good looking rangebound stock chart here with defined S/R. Watch for breakouts but love this pick for NCredit of $0.35+.
Click to expand...

So far so good...
Watching closely (Deltas/Spread Prices) on GS Call Spread and MON Put Spread big moves today. If todays trends continue for more days at this rate I have to make some adjustments. But looking good so far.

New Picks
MOS 170/165 or 165/160
Safe credit spread opposite of trend and moving away fast. With R at 144ish Really easy call here.

PCLN 165/160/100/95 NC$0.55
Nice 11% pop here really far away from price. With no Earnings this month.
 
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luckyd1976 said:
So far so good...
Watching closely (Deltas/Spread Prices) on GS Call Spread and MON Put Spread big moves today. If todays trends continue for more days at this rate I have to make some adjustments. But looking good so far.

New Picks
MOS 170/165 or 165/160
Safe credit spread opposite of trend and moving away fast. With R at 144ish Really easy call here.

PCLN 165/160/100/95 NC$0.55
Nice 11% pop here really far away from price. With no Earnings this month.
Click to expand...

Well folks this ends the week. Let's see, adjustments none yet. big watchlist for adjustments (GS, MON, MOS).

This week has shown serious sector rotations and or rebalancing. Financials/Agricultural picks. Big money is indicating rotation time from Agri PLays and into Financials.

The Bond markets are showing the all clear sign as well. (shown by the 2yr Bond is actually higher than the FED Rate for first time in yrs) Almost the all clear. This week had plenty of bad news and themarkets still ticked up.

With the SPX and DJI closing above the Feb1st highs I think its up from here. Bullish for MidTerm time horizons.

If the Financial Sector shows strong premarket Monday, IM buying to close my GS May 210 Calls and riding the 220 for a day/or two before Selling to close them.
 
luckyd1976 said:
big watchlist for adjustments (GS, MON, MOS).

This week has shown serious sector rotations and or rebalancing. Financials/Agricultural picks. Big money is indicating rotation time from Agri PLays and into Financials.

The Bond markets are showing the all clear sign as well. (shown by the 2yr Bond is actually higher than the FED Rate for first time in yrs) Almost the all clear. This week had plenty of bad news and themarkets still ticked up.

With the SPX and DJI closing above the Feb1st highs I think its up from here. Bullish for MidTerm time horizons.
Click to expand...

Well today Ive Bought 2 Close my MON 105p Im going to hang on for 1-2 days on my MON 100p to ride alittle of the bearish trend in Agr(s), also it allows me to recoup some of the little loss on the 105/100 spread price.

IMHO,
With the Fed Speak coming I think the markets are just rebalancing (out of Commodities/Basic Materials and buying the Health Care/Financials) but they are just hanging tight for the Fed Language and the Jobs report later this week.
 
luckyd1976 said:
Well today Ive Bought 2 Close my MON 105p Im going to hang on for 1-2 days on my MON 100p to ride alittle of the bearish trend in Agr(s), also it allows me to recoup some of the little loss on the 105/100 spread price.
Click to expand...

The reason I love condors so much is highlighted in MON as an example.

My MON pick 160/155/105/100
NCredit $0.55
Cash Option requirements $5.00
11% Initial Return (profit in a sideways market)
(9/1 Risk Reward) <---- BIGGEST PROBLEMS with CONDORS
But 90% Win rate makes the Risk/Reward worth it to me.

Even in a trending market (as long as it doesn't move overnight/or fast moves) condors can be partially unwound for profitable trades. Earlier today I bought to close my short 105p. Taking a little bit of a loss on the 105/100 credit spread because of the widening spread affects. But my long 100p (.MONQC) was only trading at $0.65 at the time of Closing my Short 105p out. My 100p (.MONQC) last traded today at $1.55 (+138% gain on this leg AFTER) quickly turned a small loser leg into a winning trade.
 
luckyd1976 said:
IMHO,
With the Fed Speak coming I think the markets are just rebalancing (out of Commodities/Basic Materials and buying the Health Care/Financials) but they are just hanging tight for the Fed Language and the Jobs report later this week.
Click to expand...

Yesterday before the Fed, I B2Close GS 210. Today I closed out both my GS 220 (+0.20 after unwinding leg) and My MON 100 (+0.40 two day hold after unwinding leg).

All the other picks look good Keep an Eye on the GOOG top half 650/640. With this momentum I may unwind (S-640) this one tomorrow if there's strength.

Outflows in Commodities
Inflows in Financials
USD is strengthening
 
luckyd1976 said:
All the other picks look good Keep an Eye on the GOOG top half 650/640. With this momentum I may unwind (S-640) this one tomorrow if there's strength.
Click to expand...

If GOOG breaks $600 im closing my 640 (.GOOEH) but only IF that delta has swung to 20.
 
luckyd1976 said:
PCLN 165/160/100/95 NC$0.55
Nice 11% pop here really far away from price. With no Earnings this month.
Click to expand...

I must admit, today I dodged a Bullet, on this one.
I HAD NO IDEA their Earnings were this week!!!

For my condors, I usually search and avoid the Earnings month when picking stocks to condor. I've seen many times IC traders get blown up trading around the earnings.

BUT since I opened this trade APR24th
1 I had 2+ wks of Theta Decay working in my favor.
2 Earning didnt launch my pick thru the 160 or 100 shortside positions.

Not even a +12% up day could wreck this trade. I sure lived up to my nickname on this pick...
 
Jun Picks

For open tomorrow if the markets open small to flat...

POT 250/240/165/155 ($1.00+)
GOOG 670/660/510/500 ($1.20+)
AAPL 230/220/155/145 ($0.86+)
GS 220/210/155/145 ($0.93+)
RIMM 170/165/115/110 ($0.44+)
 
POT 250/240/165/155 ($0.95)
GOOG 670/660/510/500 ($1.00)
AAPL 230/220/155/145 ($0.75)
GS 220/210/155/145 ($0.80)
RIMM 170/165/115/110 ($0.40)

Filled monthly NetCredit Average of Picks +8.6% Return

Jun picks have gone well. No surprise moves or announcements. ONly think to keep in mind is GS they have Earnings JUN17th and be on the lookout for any Pre-Earnings Guidance. Then you'll also need to close Short side out before the Earnings to be safe.

GS: Company Events for GOLDMAN SACHS GRP - Yahoo! Finance
 
luckyd1976 said:
POT 250/240/165/155 ($0.95)
GOOG 670/660/510/500 ($1.00)
AAPL 230/220/155/145 ($0.75)
GS 220/210/155/145 ($0.80)
RIMM 170/165/115/110 ($0.40)

Filled monthly NetCredit Average of Picks +8.6% Return
Click to expand...

Keep an Eye on the GS pick
If GS tomorrow breaks $169.94 or the 155 delta=20, then I buying back the 155(s). GS made a Double bottom today and could be a good opportunity for either a huge DB bounce up, or a complete breakdown.
 
luckyd1976 said:
POT 250/240/165/155 ($0.95)
GOOG 670/660/510/500 ($1.00)
AAPL 230/220/155/145 ($0.75)
GS 220/210
RIMM 170/165/115/110 ($0.40)
Click to expand...

Adjustments for today,
POT B2Closed 240 (after the afternoon $215.07 breakout) for a loss. But I'm hangin on of the 250 for trend continuation.
 
choosing strikes

Hi, Lucky,

I like your picks. Smart to avoid earnings.

How do you choose the width of your condors? Do you use standard deviation, ATR, or...?

thanks
Mary
 
drcha said:
Hi, Lucky,

I like your picks. Smart to avoid earnings.

How do you choose the width of your condors? Do you use standard deviation, ATR, or...?

thanks
Mary
Click to expand...

Mary,

lol, Please dont beat me up for this non-answer.

My widths are from years of me being way to close in price.
The biggest problems I see in Iron Condor traders,
1 Way to close to price
2 Adjustments

Trust me there is a method to my madness here.

First, Generally I look for widths outside of a major Support/Resistence level (to slow the trend before ITM) and then I look for my comfort levels in the Greeks.
 
luckyd1976 said:
First, Generally I look for widths outside of a major Support/Resistence level (to slow the trend before ITM) and then I look for my comfort levels in the Greeks.
Click to expand...

Example (Based on EOD)

RUT $763.27

July Iron Condor Example

840/830/670/660 NCredit @$0.70 (+7% Return)

With Heavy resistence @ $800. and multiple supports going down to the Heavy Support @ $680(ish) I would be all over that 7% NCred. Now most IC traders get greedy and get to close like 100 Widths

820/810/710/700 NCredit @$2.15 (+21.5% return)

But more often than not they will have to adjust and take some losses 50-60% of the time. ON the other hand by me staying out there settling for my 6%-10% monthly(s) I have 90%+ Win rates and very few adjustments needed.
 
Watchlist for July Picks
AMZN, ICE, EXPE, ATI, NVDA, GOOG, GS, SGP, ADSK, BHI, RIG, PCP, CMI, NYX, MS

Now this is when I start to pair down my list. From 15 to 5 solid picks. I'll be looking at price action and the greeks Tuesday afternoon. I never like to play IC picks the day after Expiration because markets can be rebalancing that day after big Expiration (Jan and Mar) days.
 
Aug

This month Im sticking to the Index(es)

SPY 137/135/114/112 NC $0.25
DIA 125/123/104/102 NC $0.18
RUT 770/760/620/610 NC $0.90
 
2dimes said:
And does anyone know an easy way to calculate the 2 ROI's? (risk based vs funds restricted due to margin)
Click to expand...

Very good questions 2dimes
Let's see some Examples for ROI(s) on Iron Condors.

luckyd1976 said:
SPY 137/135/114/112 NC $0.25
Click to expand...


SPY Cash ROI
(NetCredit/Strike Spread) x 100
25/200 = 12.5%

SPY Margin ROI
{NetCredit/(Strike Spread-NetCredit)} x 100
25/175 = 14.2%

Now the major Pro's and Con's to Iron Condors.

Pro's = P1. Span margin (stocks can be only price at any one time, either SPY 136 or 114) creates great ROIs. P2. If done correctly, there's room for error because time decay and the % range cushions via the greeks make it almost impossible to lose.

Con's = C1. Risk/Rewards Suck (SPY example 200/25 = 8:1) So money management, IC Exits, and position sizings are even more important. With 8/1 RiskRewards you need to have a high WinRate% to make up for those added risks to use this strategy correctly.
 
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