
Hello, guys) My first idea which I want to show you will be selling options call on crude oil WTI.
This idea have few fundamental and technic factors:
1. OPEC would signed the agreement to extend production cuts. This is bull factor but market has already priced that into the price. Therefore this factor can't raise prices in near term.
2. Shale oil producers remain unknown variable. Now exist many forecasts about future production size. You shoud known that this forecasts radically different from each other. The difference of the projections on output growth ranges from 0.6 to 1.7 mb/d. If price remain on current level or continue to rise, shale oil producers would have more reasons to grow their output.
3. The third factor is more technical. At the end of the year refiners cuts their stocks of oil that would reduce taxes. This reduces short-term demand for oil.
4. Forth factor is graphic technical pattern: 
We can see that the price is not even touch $60 and the reaction from the last bar with big volume is down. This fact tell us that sellers dominating right now.
My trading idea is sell options call above $64. At this time we could sell options call with strike $64 about $150 per contract on february series.
I would be grateful for your questions and comments |