IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

This is a discussion on IS this Karen Supertrader story legit? within the Futures & Options forums, part of the Markets category; Anyone have any thoughts on this woman? I smell a rat.......

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Old Feb 19, 2013, 11:55pm   #1
Joined Feb 2013
IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?



Anyone have any thoughts on this woman? I smell a rat....
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 10:49am   #2
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Difficult to know, she claims to be working on price and volume with Bollinger bands and theta on indices using options. It maybe that the strategy is working in the market conditions that have been prevalent since 2008. It also sounds like she is using a specific modeling technique which few traders use.
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 11:04am   #3
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

MACLondon started this thread Thanks dude. Interesting things to note having traded single stock options and futures for a bank in the past.

1. She claims to never write options with more than 40-50 day exp max. So she's trading the front end of the term structure.

2. She claims she only ever sells 5% options (so way out the money calls or puts) generally call spreads or put spreads.

3. claims se does this on NSX, SPX and DAX i think...basically major indices


Now given implied volatility rates over the last couple of years selling the wings like this near term....i just can get how on earth she get's any significant premium. Unless she is trading in MASSIVE size. But to do this desks would know about it. I mean there's bugger all premium to be taken in by doing that....you don't get paid for taking 5% risk. So the concept of her making 1000s of percent to convert 100k into 41million i find absolutely hard to figure out?

Re her modelling technique....i think that's not so important....her options valuation is not going to account for that. And anyway - she's not doing any price mean reversion etc or LTCM stuff so quality of model is irrelevant....she's simply taking in theta (writing options)....it doesn't add up.
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 11:25am   #4
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Yes good points and the impression I got is that she was not using massive size and that only once in the last year was there any drawdown. The modeling I was referring to was the "drawdown" one where the model exactly matched projected drawdown and if true this would be a hugely useful tool for anyone.

I agree though that it doesn't seem to make sense and even more so as she says her approach is getting ever more simple.
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 11:28am   #5
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

She said 0 to 1 draw downs a year. Maybe she wrote covered options.
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 11:28am   #6
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

MACLondon started this thread
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Originally Posted by Trader333 View Post
Yes good points and the impression I got is that she was not using massive size and that only once in the last year was there any drawdown. The modeling I was referring to was the "drawdown" one where the model exactly matched projected drawdown and if true this would be a hugely useful tool for anyone.

I agree though that it doesn't seem to make sense and even more so as she says her approach is getting ever more simple.
Agreed. Also interesting to see the classic signs of: No performance published, No chart, no further local press write up....etc etc...

Because i guess if the guy next door made 41million USD doing that in three years then went to the national press then nobody locally would be interested etc etc....nobody would have written much about it. She also makes some mistakes and then corrects herself in her video....she doesn't see sure of her strat and speak very opaquely. I guess we'll see if anybody else chimes in...
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Old Feb 20, 2013, 12:30pm   #7
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MACLondon View Post
Agreed. Also interesting to see the classic signs of: No performance published, No chart, no further local press write up....etc etc...

Because i guess if the guy next door made 41million USD doing that in three years then went to the national press then nobody locally would be interested etc etc....nobody would have written much about it. She also makes some mistakes and then corrects herself in her video....she doesn't see sure of her strat and speak very opaquely. I guess we'll see if anybody else chimes in...
She will be running seminars in the Travel Inn in Staines soon. All the secrets for just 3999.
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