IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

This is a discussion on IS this Karen Supertrader story legit? within the Futures & Options forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by DionysusToast I don't see why it wouldn't be true. At the end of the day, pure chance ...

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Old Mar 30, 2013, 6:04pm   #17
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I don't see why it wouldn't be true.

At the end of the day, pure chance will create success stories like that.

Some people like this will inevitably exist through pure chance and of course some will exist through skill and a large set of spheres.

If you want to follow somebody like this, you need to figure out how much of their success was down to pure chance. Not very easy that. Based on the evidence, I'm totally neutral on it.
What DT states above is probably a good example of the "Black Swan" effect old Tarbes writes about
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Old Apr 1, 2013, 9:00pm   #18
Joined Sep 2005
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I don't see why it wouldn't be true.

At the end of the day, pure chance will create success stories like that.

Some people like this will inevitably exist through pure chance and of course some will exist through skill and a large set of spheres.

If you want to follow somebody like this, you need to figure out how much of their success was down to pure chance. Not very easy that. Based on the evidence, I'm totally neutral on it.
Very good point Toast. People seem to forget that there are always people at both ends of the bell curve.
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Old Apr 1, 2013, 11:55pm   #19
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by homeforex View Post
Very good point Toast. People seem to forget that there are always people at both ends of the bell curve.
There is a lot of publicity associated with her past success but is she still trading? If she can maintain that level of performance or thereabouts then it is not luck but skill.
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 9:38am   #20
Joined Dec 2012
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
There is a lot of publicity associated with her past success
Has anyone seen her yearly tax returns?

Has anyone seen her personal balance sheet, ie assets AND liabilities.

I doubt it, therefore it pays to believe nothing in this game until you see cold hard facts. And this is especially the case when the person in question is going to teach you how to trade.
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 4:56pm   #21
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

There is a real easy way to test her method. Just sell a SPY strangle with say, APR2 155Px10 and 159Cx12 for $824 less comm. Close to even Deltas outside of 1SD so 80% chance of success. Adjust it as the next 11 days goes by if necessary and enjoy the fact that there is only a 10% chance of loss on either end...
And, of course we know it can't be in both places at once so makes it nicer. Hard to know how much adjustments help, just keep the Deltas neutral more or less...

First one to do this and document same gets a free six pak of Black Butte Porter from me...

Regards,

Jerry in Oregon

PS. I was born a skeptic, but her story has a ring of truth about it...
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 9:23pm   #22
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by jerry2dt View Post
There is a real easy way to test her method. Just sell a SPY strangle with say, APR2 155Px10 and 159Cx12 for $824 less comm. Close to even Deltas outside of 1SD so 80% chance of success. Adjust it as the next 11 days goes by if necessary and enjoy the fact that there is only a 10% chance of loss on either end...
And, of course we know it can't be in both places at once so makes it nicer. Hard to know how much adjustments help, just keep the Deltas neutral more or less...

First one to do this and document same gets a free six pak of Black Butte Porter from me...

Regards,

Jerry in Oregon

PS. I was born a skeptic, but her story has a ring of truth about it...
No takers? No simulators out there? TOS paper trading? Nobody like beer???

Jerry
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Old Apr 29, 2013, 12:39am   #23
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

I don't drink beer no, but thanks. But I've been playing with the idea on sim for three months now. If you guys haven't seen it yet, there is a follow up segment on tastytrade and now posted on youtube where Karen's account is now $160 million plus. I would assume it's the rich elite piling on to her fund.

So far, the total p/l is about +4.4% starting with 100 million similar to what Karen said in her Tastytrade segment update. Had a big drawdown to 1% a month ago but held on and it balanced back. Now pushing the high side again. Another black swan move could certainly wipe out all the gains. I also tried the NDX but it was too hard so I gave up on it. I found the only way to keep it profitable in sim is when closing a leg with a # of contracts is to make sure it's limit bought all the way on the bid average spread as TOS doesn't seem to do it automatically. Have no way of knowing if it would close that easily in real money, at hundreds of contracts at a time.

At first I tried adjusting by full strangles, then now at 53 days out, putting the whole caboodle on, then minutely adding or removing puts or calls to adjust. Mostly haphazard as I have no idea how Karen actually precisely does this. But she did mention adjusting by single short calls or short puts.

I would think one would have to already be a billionaire to be comfortable doing this! Losing or gaining hundreds of k's in a day is just to much for a mere middle-class mortal imo (well maybe Ghadafi's kids with their mansions made of gold and stuffed walls of American dollars..) , not to mention a black swan millions wipeout. Anyways, it's been a fun game so far.
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Old Apr 29, 2013, 7:50pm   #24
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Quote:
Originally Posted by krylite View Post
I don't drink beer no, but thanks. But I've been playing with the idea on sim for three months now. If you guys haven't seen it yet, there is a follow up segment on tastytrade and now posted on youtube where Karen's account is now $160 million plus. I would assume it's the rich elite piling on to her fund.

So far, the total p/l is about +4.4% starting with 100 million similar to what Karen said in her Tastytrade segment update. Had a big drawdown to 1% a month ago but held on and it balanced back. Now pushing the high side again. Another black swan move could certainly wipe out all the gains. I also tried the NDX but it was too hard so I gave up on it. I found the only way to keep it profitable in sim is when closing a leg with a # of contracts is to make sure it's limit bought all the way on the bid average spread as TOS doesn't seem to do it automatically. Have no way of knowing if it would close that easily in real money, at hundreds of contracts at a time.

At first I tried adjusting by full strangles, then now at 53 days out, putting the whole caboodle on, then minutely adding or removing puts or calls to adjust. Mostly haphazard as I have no idea how Karen actually precisely does this. But she did mention adjusting by single short calls or short puts.

I would think one would have to already be a billionaire to be comfortable doing this! Losing or gaining hundreds of k's in a day is just to much for a mere middle-class mortal imo (well maybe Ghadafi's kids with their mansions made of gold and stuffed walls of American dollars..) , not to mention a black swan millions wipeout. Anyways, it's been a fun game so far.
I have been experimenting with short strangles in real time trades and currently have had one on for the past 10 days, expiring next Fri., but may take it off sooner. The legs are 2 SD's wide now because I took every chance to push them out, taking profits and losses as necessary. This am one on the put side was too far out, little delta in it so took that profit and put another in to even out the D's. Also, just one SD at 68% does not give enough protection when 1 out of 15 trades blows one up.

I note that Karen has 4 traders and herself watching every tik and in my experience so far feel one must attempt the same. I note she trades the SPX and suspect she uses a very lo cost broker. Just one contract on it is for 100x1595=$159K. She also may have had a run of very nice luck when first selling strangles, and so had a bunch of capital. Maybe she'll write a book and explain everything in detail.

Best to all,

Jerry
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