IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

This is a discussion on IS this Karen Supertrader story legit? within the Futures & Options forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by BobbyBB If somebody bills themselves as 'super trader' and they're American then you can be 100% sure ...

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Old Mar 30, 2013, 6:18pm   #15
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by BobbyBB View Post
If somebody bills themselves as 'super trader' and they're American then you can be 100% sure they're more about marketing something than actually being 'super'.
She doesn't "bill" herself as supertrader, Tastytrade did.
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Old Mar 30, 2013, 7:01pm   #16
Joined Sep 2010
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

Could be true, could also be another OPM fund ponzi.
If true, bull run fueled greenback printing press, game over when it stops.
If it is true, probably by taking excessive risk (LTCM, Niederhoffer - i.e degenerate gambling...)
Personally, I reckon its an LTCM / Madoff waiting to happen.
Other than mild curiosity, who cares, not my money, risk or profit.
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Old Mar 30, 2013, 7:04pm   #17
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I don't see why it wouldn't be true.

At the end of the day, pure chance will create success stories like that.

Some people like this will inevitably exist through pure chance and of course some will exist through skill and a large set of spheres.

If you want to follow somebody like this, you need to figure out how much of their success was down to pure chance. Not very easy that. Based on the evidence, I'm totally neutral on it.
What DT states above is probably a good example of the "Black Swan" effect old Tarbes writes about
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Old Apr 1, 2013, 10:00pm   #18
Joined Sep 2005
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
I don't see why it wouldn't be true.

At the end of the day, pure chance will create success stories like that.

Some people like this will inevitably exist through pure chance and of course some will exist through skill and a large set of spheres.

If you want to follow somebody like this, you need to figure out how much of their success was down to pure chance. Not very easy that. Based on the evidence, I'm totally neutral on it.
Very good point Toast. People seem to forget that there are always people at both ends of the bell curve.
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 12:55am   #19
Joined May 2012
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by homeforex View Post
Very good point Toast. People seem to forget that there are always people at both ends of the bell curve.
There is a lot of publicity associated with her past success but is she still trading? If she can maintain that level of performance or thereabouts then it is not luck but skill.
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 10:38am   #20
Joined Dec 2012
Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
There is a lot of publicity associated with her past success
Has anyone seen her yearly tax returns?

Has anyone seen her personal balance sheet, ie assets AND liabilities.

I doubt it, therefore it pays to believe nothing in this game until you see cold hard facts. And this is especially the case when the person in question is going to teach you how to trade.
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Old Apr 2, 2013, 5:56pm   #21
 
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Re: IS this Karen Supertrader story legit?

There is a real easy way to test her method. Just sell a SPY strangle with say, APR2 155Px10 and 159Cx12 for $824 less comm. Close to even Deltas outside of 1SD so 80% chance of success. Adjust it as the next 11 days goes by if necessary and enjoy the fact that there is only a 10% chance of loss on either end...
And, of course we know it can't be in both places at once so makes it nicer. Hard to know how much adjustments help, just keep the Deltas neutral more or less...

First one to do this and document same gets a free six pak of Black Butte Porter from me...

Regards,

Jerry in Oregon

PS. I was born a skeptic, but her story has a ring of truth about it...
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