Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

This is a discussion on Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis within the Futures & Options forums, part of the Markets category; Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. 30-Year Bond COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS ...

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Old Oct 9, 2017, 1:45pm   #313
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

30-Year Bond
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 27%, SS – 16% /
Large bullish cot change signal, plus a bit more bullish extreme. My bet is upwards

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme that has turned the price down in the CAD has widened further which in my opinion support even lower prices.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 165, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
Pretty much the same picture as in CAD.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Thumbnails
report40_30-year-bond.png   report40_cad.png   report40_gbp.png  

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Old Oct 17, 2017, 10:10am   #314
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 7%, SS – 21% /
Bearish cot change signal (not really strong, I’d put it aside) and a still bearish extreme. Conclusion would be to go short, but we are talking about an index and you can see how indexes reacted to bearish extremes in the past…

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 335 report COT extreme /
Significant bearish extreme is still present in the market --> we can expect further decline in the market.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 246, LS – 257 report COT extreme /
Interesting, but the bearish extreme in the Canadian Dollar does not seem to weaken even though prices have started falling. In my view this support further weakness in the market.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Thumbnails
report41_s-p-400.png   report41_eur.png   report41_cad.png  

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Old Oct 23, 2017, 5:38pm   #315
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 36%, SS – 23% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Possibly the BEST combination we can wish for! Not only do we have huge sudden changes in Traders positions (bullish cot signal), but this is happening, when we have stress levels in the market that we have never witnessed in the past! Beautiful bullish picture!

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
Interesting to see on Small Speculators signaling a direction! Of course this is just a good example for us to know: maybe they are “small”, but they definitely count! Have a look at that happened back in the end of 2013 (see attached chart). We had a pretty much similar situation as now. If it is not clear: we have a bullish signal from the report.

Canadian Dollar
COT Index (3yr) / C – 1%, LS – 99%, SS – 94% /
Not much change from last week, further weakness on the horizon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Thumbnails
report42_5-year-note.png   report42_lean-hogs.png   report42_cad.png  

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Old Oct 30, 2017, 11:37am   #316
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Frank
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 21% /
Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.

Coffee
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is crystal clear, we have a huge stress in coffee and we can expect it to erupt soon!

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / C – All Time COT extreme /
Commercials have never been as short (net) as they are now --> huge bearish cot signal, but caution is advised, I would not be surprised if prices would continue to rise a little bit more.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Thumbnails
report43_chf.png   report43_coffee.png   report43_feeder-cattle.png  

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Old Nov 6, 2017, 10:20am   #317
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Frank
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 28%, SS – 15% /
COT Index (3yr) / C - 83%, LS – 15%, SS – 22% /
Last week I said: “Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.” Well that is what happened, we have now reached an even greater extreme! Things are becoming pretty supporting for CHF.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Beautiful! There is nothing better, when we have a bullish all time cot extreme signal at deep low prices!

10-Year Note
COT Extreme / SS – 606 report COT extreme /
The picture is not as bullish as it is for 5-year note, but small specs are pretty pessimistic about the market and that is definitely a good sign for higher prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Thumbnails
report44_chf.png   report44_5-year-note.png   report44_10-year-note.png  

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