Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

This is a discussion on Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis within the Futures & Options forums, part of the Markets category; Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – ...

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Old Jul 23, 2018, 9:04am   #346
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22% /
FTG Score / D 35.4, W 35.1, M 25.5 /
The bearish cot change signal is telling us that prices will not be able to continue their rise early this week, but FTG Score 35.4 (Daily) is supporting higher prices. I would step away from Nasdaq for now…

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.5, W -41.5, M -23.8 /
All Time cot extreme are always exciting to have in a market. Neither Commercials nor LS have held such big long/short positions in the cot History of Coffee. We can expect a major change in the trend. The only BIG question is “when”? For this, it is advisable to go into details and here is where FuturesTradingGuides comes handy. FTG scores are very bearish still which warns us to be patient with entry. I would wait for the system to show me a signs of strength before entry, or at least I would cautiously enter the market (scaling in the position).

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 1030 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -36.0, M -3.9 /
I have become very bullish with silver recently (prepared for the “everything bubble” to pop), so I was pretty satisfied to see Platinum producing this all time bullish cot extreme. If you open a longer chart for platinum, you can find that it has been approximately 15 years since LS were ne short in this market… unbelievable! This is a GREAT opportunity in precious metals! Similarly to my suggestion in Coffee, we might need to be patient, FTG scores are still very bearish.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
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Futures Trading
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Old Jul 30, 2018, 10:16am   #347
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 18%, SS – 16% /
FTG Score / D 41.1, W -0.1, M 14.3 /
The larger than average change in Traders positions suggests that prices may fall in the short run, but looking at the extreme, I don’t see why the USD Index cannot continue the rise.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -43.8, W -39.2, M -25.6 /
The picture here is pretty much the same. COT data shows added stress to the market. FTG score have changed a bit since last week, showing modest signs that technical maybe slowly shifting the bullish bias that the cot report is indicating.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C, LS – 577 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.4, W -40.9, M -4.5 /
Very large bullish stress in CHF suggesting higher prices are on the corner, but FTG scores warn caution, we may need to wait a few more days, possibly weeks. I think it is important to analyze all such currencies (measured in USD) together with the USD Index.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Aug 13, 2018, 8:35am   #348
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 9%, SS – 24% /
FTG Score / D 12.9, W 25.3, M 26.4 /
With a bullish cot change signal and no bearish extreme present, adding bullish FTG values I would be expecting further increasing prices.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -32.6, M -18.0 /
While the extreme has further increased the past two weeks, FTG negative sentiment has been decreasing gradually. Coffee is definitely a good opportunity we should be watching closely.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 44.1, W 53.8, M 30.6 /
All Time bearish cot extreme combined with pretty bullish values in FTG. We may need to be patient and wait for a good entering opportunity /this applies if you wish to maximize your Risk/Rewards ratio. If you are a long term investor, you might neglect this and take a position right away.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Sep 9, 2018, 5:01pm   #349
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. This time I want to focus ONLY on metals, especially Silver!!

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 7% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -21.9, W -34, M 3.3 /
Not only do we have a bullish cot change signal in Silver, but (!) again we have reached ALL TIME COT Extreme in C & LS positions! Commercials are net long!! Amazing… Something really big is on its way…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Sep 17, 2018, 1:28pm   #350
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 27% /
FTG Score / D 32.4, W 18.3, M 17.8 /
Bullish cot change signal together with positive reading from FuturesTradingGuides suggesting further strength in the market.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 240 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.7, W -26.9, M -21.5 /
Beautiful bullish extreme, but as said in the cot review, could further increase (lower prices supported by FTG scores).

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -39.3, W -11.5, M 3.7 /
Large extreme, but not as great as in other metals… If buy in metals --> not copper!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Oct 1, 2018, 12:18pm   #351
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%. 29% /
FTG Score / D 49.1, W 9.0, M 21.4 /
All cot signals show bearishness in the market, but FTG scores seem to be supporting higher prices.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 12.2, W 30.2, M 37.0 /
All Time bearish cot extreme in the market --> getting prepared for lower prices may be a good idea.

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 875, LS – 875 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -72.3, W -42.2, M -0.3 /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Gold, but at the same time the daily FTG score (-72.3) together with the weekly (-42.2) pulls be back from the arena for a while…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
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Futures Trading
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Old Oct 15, 2018, 9:50am   #352
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 36% 14% /
FTG Score / D -4.1, W 28.0, M 36.8 /
Interesting to see Traders still close to bullish extreme levels here. As said in the review, I think we should always have a look at the other indexes as well to get an overall picture. I had a look at the U.S. Stock Index Complex cot data (only at COTbase) and saw All Time BEARISH cot extreme!! So even with the bullish signs we have right now in Nasdaq (bullish cot change signal as well), I’m more leaning toward the idea that stock indexes are way overvalued at the moment.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -59.5, W -45.2, M -8.5 /
Although we have this beautiful bullish cot extreme (All Time), because of the significant FTG Scores I’d be more careful in entering the market. Of course if you are a long term investor, you may neglect these shorter term signals

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 910, LS – 911 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -10.7, W -44.1, M -9.1 /
The picture is pretty clear, the extreme we have in metals these days is astonishing. Gold seems to have bottomed and there is a good chance that we shall see rising prices!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Oct 29, 2018, 7:45am   #353
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 22%, SS - 24% /
FTG Score / D 15.8, W -38.8, M -14.8 /
Larger change in Traders positions suggest some rebound in prices. The extreme has risen also, plus weekly and monthly FTG scores are bearish. We may see some decline.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 176 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -54.1, W -1.4, M -10.4 /
Significant bullish extreme, but (!) caution is advised due to large bearish FTG score (daily).

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 83 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -20.4, W -44.3, M -27.4 /
Relatively larger bullish extreme (about 1.5 years since Traders were at such levels) suggesting a possible strengthening, on the other hand FTG scores on all timeframes producing bearish signals. Picture is not that easy, we can argue in both directions.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Old Nov 12, 2018, 9:37am   #354
Joined Jul 2012
Dunstan started this thread Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 28%, SS - 20% /
FTG Score / D -20.5, W 12.0, M 34.7 /
We saw a bullish cot change signal, but the extreme is still bearish. This, combined with a -20.5 daily FTG score suggests to me that we may neglect the change signal and focus our attention on the larger picture.

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C, LS – 178 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.9, W -0.5, M -14.3 /
The picture remained the same in the past two weeks since my last post… The bullish extreme is in place, prices should head north in the medium/long term.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 85, LS – 86 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -61.3, W -11.3, M -12.4 /
Although bullish extreme grew larger, the HUGE daily FTG score pushes me towards the assumption that price will continue to fall.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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