Trading Options based on Volatility

BakedWafer

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Let's say I know there is going to be a huge drop in volatility on an option. What would be the best way to profit?

Regards
 
But would you give any specific recommendations as to how? Just a short naked put, or are there other options?
 
BakedWafer said:
I guess I know to sell vol. but I am looking for some way to cover my downside.

Regards

Sell a straddle or a stangle and delta hedge.

Or just trade the VDAX or VIX future!!!!!!!!
 
Baked Wafer - When buying property the mantra is "location location location" and when trading options it should be "volatility volatility volatility". I'm a little intrigued that you ask what happens when IV is about to drop given that we are close to 9 year lows for IV across the board, although individual stocks may be showing high IV for specific reasons.

Generally, when IV is high and expected to fall, then you want to be net short (either calls or puts), and if IV is expected to rise, then you should be net long. So you could simply sell either straddles or strangles. Or if worried about the effect of a price crash, buy an ATM call and sell 2 x OTM calls higher up. The permutations are endless so unable to give specific recommendations without knowing more about the scenario you envisage.
 
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An example: APPX has pending news, so the stock will be making a large move.

IV is about 3 times normal volatility. You could expect to see a 50 - 100% drop in volatility in certain options for this underlying (APPX) in the near future. How would your trade it, if at all.


Regards
 
I've tried to capture the IV in these Pharmaceuticals before, and it really is just a toss of a coin as to whether you come out the right side. Have a look at GNTA. An announcement last May didn't come out as expected, and despite being able to sell IV at over 300% (not a typo!) I was lucky to exit with only a small loss when price collapsed. APPX has a history of moving $5 - $10 in very short periods of time which is why IV is so high. If you sell a straddle, although the breakeven points will be temptingly far apart, chances are that anything other than a neutral announcement will bring them under threat. Likewise, buying a straddle or a strangle will require heavy investment in premium which will evaporate following the volatility crush that inevitably will follow the announcement and you'll need a mega-move to make any money.

If you HAVE to trade it, I think I'd consider buying an OTM strangle in a far month and sell some butterflies in a near month to help cover some of the premium spent on the strangle. If there is no move, the butterflies will recoup some of the premium lost on the strangle, and if there is a large move in either direction losses on the butterfly will be limited with unlimited profit potential on the strangle. This is all very well in theory but a b***** to make work in practice. I've learned the hard way to leave these alone and to get my profits elsewhere!
 
BakedWafer said:
An example: APPX has pending news, so the stock will be making a large move.

IV is about 3 times normal volatility. You could expect to see a 50 - 100% drop in volatility in certain options for this underlying (APPX) in the near future. How would your trade it, if at all.


Regards

How can you get a 100% drop in vol????
Well you need to look at hist vol before you make a trading decision...where is hist vol relative to IV????
 
Robertral said:
How can you get a 100% drop in vol????
Well you need to look at hist vol before you make a trading decision...where is hist vol relative to IV????

Easy to get a drop in IV of over 100%. IV of APPX Jan 05 $40 calls is currently 165% compared to norm of around 70%. Could easily fall to 50% after an announcement.

Nice write up of the current APPX position by Jody Osborne on the Optionetics site

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=11709
 
RogerM said:
Easy to get a drop in IV of over 100%. IV of APPX Jan 05 $40 calls is currently 165% compared to norm of around 70%. Could easily fall to 50% after an announcement.

Nice write up of the current APPX position by Jody Osborne on the Optionetics site

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=11709

confusion is saying a 100% !!!!! please say an 'abolsute move of 100%' instead of 100% as to me a move of 100% drop means from x to 0 !!!!!!Thank you please
 
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