This is why the markets will double-dip...

You can't argue with the above chart. It's a very scary looking downward slope that has yet to bottom out let alone begin to recover.

I still maintain that we will see a second major dip in the equity markets - possibly not at the speed of the first but a long slow draw out realisation that all is still not well lasting many months.

However the time is not right for the dip, denial remains king. There needs to be a catalyst, in the mean time I see a lot of sideways action around a slow creeping up. But the combination of still increasing unemployment & rising commodity prices is setting up a nasty shock. Perhaps the reaction to the start of interest rate rises will trigger the reaction.

Hoggums said:

You can't argue with the above chart. It's a very scary looking downward slope that has yet to bottom out let alone begin to recover.

I still maintain that we will see a second major dip in the equity markets - possibly not at the speed of the first but a long slow draw out realisation that all is still not well lasting many months.

However the time is not right for the dip, denial remains king. There needs to be a catalyst, in the mean time I see a lot of sideways action around a slow creeping up. But the combination of still increasing unemployment & rising commodity prices is setting up a nasty shock. Perhaps the reaction to the start of interest rate rises will trigger the reaction.

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I agree with you on this Hoggums. US will raise interest rates and so will the UK.
The Buy to let Gurus who havs survived the last 18 months will get caught up in the rising rates on their mortgages and this will trigger a new round of price drops in the housing market as they have to sell or get repossesed. Only then will we start to recover if and only if the unemployment rate stops rising.My view is there is more to come. The only cushion will be that the banks are recharging their coffers at the moment by charging way more than base rate and will have money to give to new businesses in the near future thereby the start of a new consolidation phase for a whilke and then the start of a new bull run but more than likely in Asia and India where their wealth will start to dominate the markets and not the US and UK as usual. Im sat in Penang where some bars are charging £4 a beer which is way overpriced but there are so many buildings be built to cater for our western money.

Only time will tell.

Ged

gedward3 said:

The Buy to let Gurus

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I think the banks are actually hoarding cash in fear of losses on commercial property, or Dubai, or mark to fantasy derivatives. This money won't find its way to small business.

The Alcoa results were a sign of excessive optimism in stock valuations for 2010 results but then this whole rally was built on printed money and spin anyway.