Global Climate Change

Atilla · Nov 21, 2009

In light of the one in 1000 year occurrence of floods in Cumbria

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/8366693.stm

Has your view on global climate change - err changed?

imo - man is causing / contributing to climate change and that change will accelerate at the fastest rate ever, in the history of planet earth...

Soon (next 10-15 years) many of us will die from natural causes... :whistling

dcraig1 · Nov 22, 2009

It's the wrong question. No single climate event of itself indicates anything about the long term trend. Look at what the science is saying. From a 2009 research paper:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling.htm

Atilla · Nov 22, 2009

dcraig1 said:
It's the wrong question. No single climate event of itself indicates anything about the long term trend. Look at what the science is saying. From a 2009 research paper:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling.htm

Very interesting good site on GCC.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm

It was more of the 1 in a 1000 year event that made me snigger. If Cumbria floods in another decade it would be known as 1 in a 10 year event and perhaps that may well be what we know and get used to with GCC no longer an issue but simply life on earth it self.

Some people still believe this is a ploy to raise more taxation???

There was a previous poll on GCC and I am curious as to whether peoples perceptions are warming to the Global Climate Change idea...:cheesy:

counter_violent · Nov 22, 2009

You only have to look at price charts to see cycles and cycles within cycles and on and on.

Global warming is almost certainly a natural cycle...better than living in an ice age for sure.

More govt ploys to part everyone from their hard earned.

dcraig1 · Nov 22, 2009

You might be having massive flooding in Cumbria, but we've had three states on "catastrophic" (official term) bush fire alert over the last few weeks and it's not even officially summer yet. NSW has had the hottest November ever recorded and Aus and NZ had the hottest August ever recorded.

How's this for unusual weather during the dust storms over eastern Australia a few month's ago:

tomorton · Nov 22, 2009

Atilla said:
In light of the one in 1000 year occurrence of floods in Cumbria

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/8366693.stm

Has your view on global climate change - err changed?

imo - man is causing / contributing to climate change and that change will accelerate at the fastest rate ever, in the history of planet earth...

Soon (next 10-15 years) many of us will die from natural causes... :whistling

I don't really think that a local flooding event is an indicator of global climatic change: years of drought and glacier / ice cap melt maybe, but its dangerous to draw a long-term conclusion from a short-term event - you'd think we would know that as traders: that's why we won't buy-and-hold even if a share jumps 20% tomorrow.

There's little serious dispute that global warming is occurring and that it is associated with human activities. We aren't going to stop this by printing fewer emails or re-cycling glass bottles, it will take massive, government-level interventions, and these will be enormously expensive. Taxes are the only way governments have to pay for this and they will have to rise.

But not all green taxes are sensible, nor will they be well-spent - the taxes in some countries on plastic shopping bags as an example must raise pitiful revenue that will not help us out of the crisis: they don't even help focus attention, as they misdirect this away from the bigger issues - and away from the politicians who will have to solve them. For example, the government's top scientific adviser on climate change says we would need 10 times the nuclear capacity we have now in order to stop increasing carbon footprint and avoid the need to import power: thats' 50 more Sizewells. If that's how bad the solution is, the problem just must be awful. The upside is we won't have to worry about switching lights off at home - it won't make any difference.

Atilla · Nov 22, 2009

tomorton said:
I don't really think that a local flooding event is an indicator of global climatic change: years of drought and glacier / ice cap melt maybe, but its dangerous to draw a long-term conclusion from a short-term event - you'd think we would know that as traders: that's why we won't buy-and-hold even if a share jumps 20% tomorrow.

There's little serious dispute that global warming is occurring and that it is associated with human activities. We aren't going to stop this by printing fewer emails or re-cycling glass bottles, it will take massive, government-level interventions, and these will be enormously expensive. Taxes are the only way governments have to pay for this and they will have to rise.

But not all green taxes are sensible, nor will they be well-spent - the taxes in some countries on plastic shopping bags as an example must raise pitiful revenue that will not help us out of the crisis: they don't even help focus attention, as they misdirect this away from the bigger issues - and away from the politicians who will have to solve them. For example, the government's top scientific adviser on climate change says we would need 10 times the nuclear capacity we have now in order to stop increasing carbon footprint and avoid the need to import power: thats' 50 more Sizewells. If that's how bad the solution is, the problem just must be awful. The upside is we won't have to worry about switching lights off at home - it won't make any difference.

In terms of trading - recent recession depression has been well and trully compared to 1929. I'm not sure if it is as bad as a consequence of our governments better response at providing liquidity but statistically - I would say this down turn is significant indeed, with respect to banking crises coupled with manufacturing and demand falls.

If I extrapolate this to the flooding (as localised as it may be) a 1 in 1000 year event is significant. They are talking about one month's rain fall in one day. This isn't the first either.

As for the human foot print (outside of Europe & North America) has been pretty small. If I envisage 3 fold increase compared to what's been achieved in the last 100 years (based on popullation sizes) we have man made catastrophes waiting for us. I concur with your comments.

However, short of billions of people dying from natural disasters I can't see any man devised action averting the impending changes due upon us.

imho what ever happens it will be based on desperate responses to what we have been dealt with by mother nature :!: :!: :!:

£10kLoser · Nov 22, 2009

Global warming is happening but it's not man made. If you look into the NASA website, you can find data that shows that every planet is warming up - some quite dramatically. For example, Mars now has proper clouds forming as a result of higher temperatures.

It's part of a long term cycle due to the sun and the rotation of the galaxy.

This is well-known by The Powers That Be who are exploiting the phenomenon to get certain laws passed.

Unless there are people driving around and burning fossile fuels on the other planets...

Trader333 · Nov 22, 2009

It is certainly an interesting debate. Personally, I am not convinced that it is all to do with human activity and the last 3 years have shown a global decrease in temperature linked to activity of our Sun. That said, if it is because of human activity then I think that nothing we think we can do will change it. The reason being that the world population is expected to increase by another 50% to 9 Billion. If that happens then there will be a consequential increase in carbon emissions to go with it regardless of what governments may say they will do to try and stop it.

We have seen a 29% increase in global carbon emissions since the year 2000 and that is with everyone saying we need to reduce it. I must say that I get irritated by the pathetic adverts we see saying "do your bit for the environment by driving 5 miles less a week" as well as others ads. The UK contributes less than 2% of the global carbon emissions and if we were to stop dead all emissions today they would be overtaken by the emissions of other nations within 4 weeks.

The focus on us as individuals to reduce carbon emissions in the UK is a waste of time and will have no impact at all on solving the global problem. In my view the focus needs to be on not trading with nations that are increasing emissions but that will never happen as the US isn't really interested and we all like our cheap imports from China.

Paul

dcraig1 · Nov 22, 2009

£10kLoser said:
Global warming is happening but it's not man made. If you look into the NASA website, you can find data that shows that every planet is warming up - some quite dramatically. For example, Mars now has proper clouds forming as a result of higher temperatures.

Changes in planetary climates have planet specific causes. In the case of Mars, it is thought that changes in the planet's albedo due to dust storms are the major factor.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-mars.htm

It's part of a long term cycle due to the sun

Wrong:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

........ and the rotation of the galaxy.

Rotation of the galaxy????? Are you kidding?

Splitlink · Nov 22, 2009

dcraig1 said:
It's the wrong question. No single climate event of itself indicates anything about the long term trend. Look at what the science is saying. From a 2009 research paper:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling.htm

But we are not getting one single event, are we? We've had a lot of hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, before, but these are getting more and more severe. I'm 77 so, perhaps, I have had longer time to ponder over these things. The BBC describes this Phillipines ferry disaster as "getting caught in a squall". As an ex-merchant sailor I can tell you that "squalls" do not sink ships. You young people are getting used to describing, what we would call storms, as squalls"!

I believe that we are getting climate change, accelerated by human pollutive activity and the UK, in particular, is very endangered. It's so low and, considering that we are one of the most advanced nations in the world, I don't know why Dutch style dykes have not been built decades ago. They have put this Thames barrier up and then seem to say
OK! A fantastic piece of engineering has been achieved, everything's fine, now. Well, it isn't. Everywhere around the UK coast is under threat and apart from dykes, they'd better start constructing buildings on stilts.

I can remember, when I was evacuated in WWII, in the Keyhaven area, opposite The Needles, that there used to be pill boxes all along the coast. They have been long submerged since then and the coastal road from Milford to New Milton, probably, too. The place is getting smaller, mates, and the population larger. There are, without doubt, severe social problems cropping up.

dcraig1 · Nov 22, 2009

Splitlink said:
But we are not getting one single event, are we? We've had a lot of hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, before, but these are getting more and more severe. I'm 77 so, perhaps, I have had longer time to ponder over these things. The BBC describes this Phillipines ferry disaster as "getting caught in a squall". As an ex-merchant sailor I can tell you that "squalls" do not sink ships. You young people are getting used to describing, what we would call storms, as squalls"!

I believe that we are getting climate change, accelerated by human pollutive activity and the UK, in particular, is very endangered. It's so low and, considering that we are one of the most advanced nations in the world, I don't know why Dutch style dykes have not been built decades ago. They have put this Thames barrier up and then seem to say
OK! A fantastic piece of engineering has been achieved, everything's fine, now. Well, it isn't. Everywhere around the UK coast is under threat and apart from dykes, they'd better start constructing buildings on stilts.

I can remember, when I was evacuated in WWII, in the Keyhaven area, opposite The Needles, that there used to be pill boxes all along the coast. They have been long submerged since then and the coastal road from Milford to New Milton, probably, too. The place is getting smaller, mates, and the population larger. There are, without doubt, severe social problems cropping up.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. The multiplicity of events may well be an indicator of change. The reason I don't like the argument much is not that it is necessarily wrong, but it is hard to quantify and separate out trend from short term natural variations. And importantly it somewhat opens the door for the clowns waving their hands and saying that there can't be global warming because their car is under three feet of snow or other such nonsense. There is so much misleading and downright dishonest junk published by the deniers that I feel that any public statements about AGW should be rigorous and verifiable from the data.

And talking about severe weather, it is looking like this will be a very hot summer in Aus with fire conditions as bad or worse than the last one where 200 people were burned to death in Vic and whole towns incinerated. If so, it may very well settle the so called "debate" about AGW in this country for good.

Splitlink · Nov 22, 2009

dcraig1 said:
If so, it may very well settle the so called "debate" about AGW in this country for good.

I don't know. I believe that those who have control of the nation's wealth do not look much beyond their own wellbeing. I have come to the conclusion that when a nation has the good fortune to come up with an exceptional person, that country hinders rather than helps him.

We have an environment meeting coming up in Copenhagen soon. The US and China have decided against any agreement to it, on their part. We are doing too little, too late.

It is a human characteristic that we look after ourselves and fight each other to self destruction. No other animal does that. Sooner or later, this characteristic will lead to total castrophe.

SAINT · Nov 22, 2009

I agree that the global warming situation is being hijacked for profit.

Moves to clean energy and addressing personal waste are welcome but what we will get alongside that are taxes upon taxes.

The earth has always had changing conditions. At one stage it was completely covered in ice- what's the human explanation for that? Did we have to ramp up production of pollution in order to warm up the planet?

The problem with humans is that we believe we have a god given right to a life free from adversity and evolution. I welcome greener living and accept that the climate is warming, but anyone who thinks Gordon Brown and Al Gore can control and protect us from from rising temperatures is seriously deluded and naive.

Splitlink · Nov 22, 2009

This isn't anything to do with climate change directly, but it goes to show what is looming ahead. On the front page of La Vanguardia, this morning, it says " In 30 years half our (Spanish) population will be on a pension". We'll see (I won't

) if the state can afford that becauase the inference is that all the other half will be working. What proportion, even with a falling birth rate, will still be at school? School leaving age is being raised to 18, BTW.

Atilla · Nov 22, 2009

Splitlink said:
This isn't anything to do with climate change directly, but it goes to show what is looming ahead. On the front page of La Vanguardia, this morning, it says " In 30 years half our (Spanish) population will be on a pension". We'll see (I won't ) if the state can afford that becauase the inference is that all the other half will be working. What proportion, even with a falling birth rate, will still be at school? School leaving age is being raised to 18, BTW.

NHS, Pensions and Taxation are big three areas that will be hit by an ageing popullation.

High rate breeding economic migrant labour is the solution and is currently being implemented much to the social friction issues abounding all around us.

Coupled with global climate change and mass migration of people to safer ground / countries - we in for a severe period of history equal in parts to what mother earth will throw at us.

Doom and gloom as we enter cusp of a new era in to the new millenia... :-0:-0:-0

At least the festive season is upon us and we can all hope and drown our sorrows for a short while... :cheers:

zambuck · Nov 22, 2009

Trader333 said:
In my view the focus needs to be on not trading with nations that are increasing emissions but that will never happen as the US isn't really interested and we all like our cheap imports from China.

Paul

....Money rules...and will rule us in our 'buying' from any available cheap source...

....And that is the crux of the matter......We all like to say that we will do our bits...but it's the others who are to be really blamed.....Not us..!

....For most on this planet the only thing that matters is, will they and their children have enough to eat at night today.....For them rising sea levels, or ice age theory is probably not relevant for next 7 generations..!

Splitlink · Nov 22, 2009

zambuck said:
....Money rules...and will rule us in our 'buying' from any available cheap source...

....And that is the crux of the matter......We all like to say that we will do our bits...but it's the others who are to be really blamed.....Not us..!

....For most on this planet the only thing that matters is, will they and their children have enough to eat at night today.....For them rising sea levels, or ice age theory is probably not relevant for next 7 generations..!

And it will never happen to us. Always to some other poor guy. That's the way of the world.

zambuck · Nov 22, 2009

Splitlink said:
And it will never happen to us. Always to some other poor guy. That's the way of the world.

...My travels and holidays always put things in perspective about the whole issue....

....A poor man in Kerala chops down a small tree to light a fire to cook rice and fish stew for his family. Are we going to lecture him on the damage he has done to the Global warming...!

...Or are we going to lecture 5 bellies, 2 jags who goes for a curry takeaway,...?

poborsky · Nov 22, 2009

In Roman times there were vineyards in northern England. A few hundred years ago the Thames regularly froze over in winter.

Global Climate Change

In light of 1 in 1000 yr flooding in Cumbria, has your view on Global Climate Changed

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