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This is a discussion on spanish89... within the The Foyer forums, part of the Off the Grid category; Originally Posted by new_trader The forum is full of them Is it? Rather than simply having an opinion over what ...

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Old Oct 15, 2008, 4:23pm   #16
 
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
The forum is full of them
Is it?

Rather than simply having an opinion over what will work and what won't, has anyone actually traded another persons strategy for at least 3 months, taken all the signals within reason, kept to the rules AND lost money??

I doubt it.
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 6:58pm   #17
 
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Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
Is it?

Rather than simply having an opinion over what will work and what won't, has anyone actually traded another persons strategy for at least 3 months, taken all the signals within reason, kept to the rules AND lost money??

I doubt it.
You can remove the strategy from a person, but can you remove a person from the strategy.

If you 100% can, you have a potential candidate for automation.

If you 100% cannot, then you have a discretionary system and the extent to which another person that other person performs better or worse than the original person may be a measure of the discretionary element. I say maybe, because both the originator and the second person may employ different levels of discretion and arrive at the same or vastly different results.

Indeed the perception of each trader with regard to the amount of discretion they use may be vastly different to the level of discretion judged by an external "neutral" observer.

I suspect that you could only truly answer your question by trading blindly a balck box or advisory system, because in all other cases emotion, psychology and reasoning would interfere.

Charlton
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 7:24pm   #18
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He''ll love this thread because I know that he still pops in to read the forum from time to time, but its true. He is an excellent trader. I said he'd blow up but am brave enough to admit that I was wrong, lol.

Ive stopped reading his posts over on ET as of yesterday. No point anymore. He's provenn himself to me now. Making at least a thousand pounds per week by the looks of it since he left this forum! He's one of the successful 5% and I expect him to be a very rich man one day.
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 7:30pm   #19
 
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He''ll love this thread because I know that he still pops in to read the forum from time to time, but its true. He is an excellent trader. I said he'd blow up but am brave enough to admit that I was wrong, lol.

Ive stopped reading his posts over on ET as of yesterday. No point anymore. He's provenn himself to me now. Making at least a thousand pounds per week by the looks of it since he left this forum! He's one of the successful 5% and I expect him to be a very rich man one day.

LOL,

Sounds like someones in love with him

Throw enough monkey's at the keyboard of a trading station and at least one will come up trumps.

time has proven that luck can run many times in one person for a long time, but runs out several times over for many. (theres nothing to learn from this guy that doesn't already exist in text books)


Lee Shepherd. (a disliker of spanish trading system, if you can call it that)
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 7:32pm   #20
 
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The Spanish Evolution

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I haven't been reading his thread at ET, but if I remember correctly he had sthg like a thousand pounds in his account or a figure round about there anyway, and its been MONTHS since he was here and there were lots of predictions of his imminent blow-up making the rounds at the time, and yet he is still making a living off of that yonks later ?

Now to me - and admittredly I don't know any details here - that does not sound like being even remotely down to luck...

He must have been on quite a steep learning curve, and even then, with your price levels over there in the UK - rents etc - , what he is pulling off is nothing short of amazing, to be honest: meeting his living costs monthly from a 1K account !
I also think he has done well. His account has reached 10k now and he seems to be making about 1k per week. I don't think that this can be put down to a lucky streak any more. I believe that it is primarily due to him spending a lot of time poring over charts, watching price action and following news on his one chosen instrument - oil.

In this respect he is following all of the guidance one would normally give to others. Furthermore he is working on his psychology and so seems to be doing all the right things.

Whether or not his risk management is suitable or not, I don't really know because I haven't followed what he is doing in depth. The danger may be that he blows his account and becomes reckless and too over-confident.

I haven't always agreed with everything he has done in the past, but he has done well for a 19 year old and if continues in this way with care and attention he should do great.

God - I sound like a teacher at a PTA


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Old Oct 15, 2008, 7:40pm   #21
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LOL,

Sounds like someones in love with him
Love is a very powerful word
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 7:44pm   #22
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Sorry, but if he still trades with the same approach to stops he did previously then he will inevitably wipe out his account. It will only take one bad trade to bring all his good work down. Unless he has changed that I'm afraid I am still of the opinion that it is only a matter of time.
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:02pm   #23
 
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So, what we'll see is Spanish make £100k by the time he's 19, lose the lot and make a killing running online seminars with fake voices?

What I find a bit odd is that he wants it all now, very impatient person, and yet he's still only risking about £2 per point.
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:02pm   #24
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original method

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Ah! Funny you should mention this because I was going to add that as a caveat! I agree, if you were doing EXACTLY the wrong thing at EXACTLY the right time, every time, then yes, doing the opposite works. But, as you rightly say, those that sometimes get it right but don't know why just simply cannot do the opposite. Like I said, the connection between "right" and "wrong" must be made before doing the opposite will help. Trading, being a game of strategy, it is impossible define the opposite other than with Buy or Sell. What is the opposite of entering too early? Is it entering too late? In which case doing the opposite won’t really help will it? It's more of a Goldilocks situation where you have to get things just right!
good post"s nt

not your shift tonight ? :-)

this post again

might help some with the ...........what"s happening bit

when they get their well thought out original method up and running with their 1st account

by Steve Spray

A simple experiment might help me make my point. Next time anyone gets the ‘urge’ to take a position in the market just stop for a moment. Bring up a chart or two of the relevant instrument. Now place yourself in two scenarios and answer the following two questions;
1 ) Imagine that you have recently gone long in this instrument – where would you place your stop?

2 ) Imagine that you have recently gone short in this instrument – where would you place your stop?
Once you have identified the two stop areas you have identified an area where taking a trade is of much lower risk. It is of lower risk because you have found an area where temporary price deflection is likely to occur. In those areas the 95% are flushed out of their positions purely due to price – this is where you can step in. Obviously, if you have supporting volume as well then you are more than likely onto a good thing.

By Steve
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:07pm   #25
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Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
Ah! Funny you should mention this because I was going to add that as a caveat! I agree, if you were doing EXACTLY the wrong thing at EXACTLY the right time, every time, then yes, doing the opposite works. But, as you rightly say, those that sometimes get it right but don't know why just simply cannot do the opposite.
Agreed, I think. It's about taking the exact opposite trades, not trading in the opposite way. If you don't have a strategy then the former is impossible.

This is actually a very subtle and interesting topic (which I have no doubt only confused!).

Ben

PS So if anyone has a mechanical, ideally automated, system that is consistently losing them money across a range of market conditions then just send me your code and I'll do the 'search and replace' and make us both a fortune!
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:14pm   #26
 
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Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
So, what we'll see is Spanish make £100k by the time he's 19, lose the lot and make a killing running online seminars with fake voices?

What I find a bit odd is that he wants it all now, very impatient person, and yet he's still only risking about £2 per point.
I don't really for a minute believe that this is the case with Spanish but the possibility is there that a professional or at least an extremely accomplished trader could be "yanking our chains" by acting like an amateur...maybe because they are bored in between trades and get a thrill out of winding people up. I know someone that posted on a board a while back that had an excellent system making consistent returns but he gave ridiculous reasons for trades just to wind people up, saying things like: "just bought BT shares because I use the phone a lot and think others are bound to use the phone, even in an economic slowdown..." etc etc. The guy was winding traders up chronically who kept saying "this won't work - you need to have a better reason than that" etc and all the while calling it "luck" when his trades kept hitting the mark...
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:33pm   #27
 
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The guys too young, too impatient, a self confessed crook and a con man. He will blow out big time...Or become president of the US of A
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 8:35pm   #28
 
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Originally Posted by trader_dante View Post
I don't really for a minute believe that this is the case with Spanish but the possibility is there that a professional or at least an extremely accomplished trader could be "yanking our chains" by acting like an amateur...maybe because they are bored in between trades and get a thrill out of winding people up. I know someone that posted on a board a while back that had an excellent system making consistent returns but he gave ridiculous reasons for trades just to wind people up, saying things like: "just bought BT shares because I use the phone a lot and think others are bound to use the phone, even in an economic slowdown..." etc etc. The guy was winding traders up chronically who kept saying "this won't work - you need to have a better reason than that" etc and all the while calling it "luck" when his trades kept hitting the mark...
I didn't mean that...
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Old Oct 15, 2008, 9:07pm   #29
 
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Trading is a statistical game and WIN or LOSS has zero meaning in short term,,.. SO even if he hit buy instead of sell he would not know that he is losing/ winning until a year on ,, Monte carlo simulation would reveal a lot of facts in game theory .

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Old Oct 15, 2008, 9:28pm   #30
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One thing I will say is that I believe 'part' of spanish's success is down to the posts of a trader who goes by the handle 'AMT4SWA'.

from this guys realtime calls and posted account statements he is a VERY good trader, and I see spanish is asking for his view on the oil market at least a few times a week.....
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