countdown on totalitarian regimes

Beginning late last year in Egypt the middle east is overthrowing dictators, i won't go into the details because they're not important.

A second event is a recent protest by middle class Chinese people on a specific issue has led to a resolution of that issue rather than tanks and shooting.

Are we going to see the Chinese upper and middle class demand a democratic state and quite possibly, get it? float the Yuan and open their capital markets

might provide an interesting discussion, hopefully there's no anti-Chinese trolls.

my opinion: i think it's likely sometime within this half of the century that China will become a democracy.

As the middle and upper class grow they demand more and more freedoms and ways to spend their new found cash (on NZ beef, eels, Japanese gadgets etc). The current government can't sustain the level of growth needed to keep the population happy

might just be me hoping too much lol

I think that that is probably what will happen. However, there are forms of democratic process that are not acceptable, at least, to me. We are becoming too lenient in our approach to punishment and to the manner in which we allow individuals to, practically, steal our assets for themselves.

The Chinese are already having problems with that, because they have a population of two billions to feed, the majority of which, is below the poverty line. IMO, only a non- democratic government is strong enough to deliver capital punishment for simple corruption charges that would, in the West, receive fairly modesr prison sentences.

This is the weakness of democratic government, the "rights" of some men impinge, far too often, on the rights of the majority which is what happens in dictatorships---but in a civilised way, wthout bloodshed. So, really, we want to exchange a form of violent government for a non-violent one while we keep the corruption.

USA next?

enragedcow said:

my opinion: i think it's likely sometime within this half of the century that China will become a democracy.

As the middle and upper class grow they demand more and more freedoms

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You are assuming that democracy is better than what they already have. I don't necessarily agree with you on that. The Chinese are comfortable with a benevolent one-party system.
Some years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, more than 60% of East Europeans said that they preferred the previous system. No unemployment and no crime. And they didn't know they were not wealthy so they were not concerned about it.

And when you look at democracy in the USA (or the UK) today, do you really believe that your single vote means anything?
Do you really believe that you can change the problems in the world? Even your Congress cant fix anything at the moment because they are not prepared to help the country. All they want is to win power at the next election

marbig said:

You are assuming that democracy is better than what they already have. I don't necessarily agree with you on that. The Chinese are comfortable with a benevolent one-party system.
Some years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, more than 60% of East Europeans said that they preferred the previous system. No unemployment and no crime. And they didn't know they were not wealthy so they were not concerned about it.

And when you look at democracy in the USA (or the UK) today, do you really believe that your single vote means anything?
Do you really believe that you can change the problems in the world? Even your Congress cant fix anything at the moment because they are not prepared to help the country. All they want is to win power at the next election

Click to expand...

The grass is always greener on the other side.

I'm not sure that their's is a benevolent one party system. Heads tend to roll when things go wrong. From our side of the fence, we tend to admire that type of justice, but what about their opinion?

Our system, though, is not the way, either.

they could always have "democracy" like their close friends allies in Myanmar/Burma .......

enragedcow said:

Are we going to see the Chinese upper and middle class demand a democratic state and quite possibly, get it?

Click to expand...

The Chinese are a pragmatic people. They would have no need for a democratic system and start invading other people. Historically, the Chinese existed in a hierarchical society where everyone had a place to serve a common grand goal. This is a more efficient form of society compared to the cannibalistic capitalism where the left hand competes with the right hand, only in the end destroying both. Confucianism cannot be supplanted by democracy. They are not in the same class.

marbig said:

You are assuming that democracy is better than what they already have. I don't necessarily agree with you on that. The Chinese are comfortable with a benevolent one-party system.
Some years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, more than 60% of East Europeans said that they preferred the previous system. No unemployment and no crime. And they didn't know they were not wealthy so they were not concerned about it.

And when you look at democracy in the USA (or the UK) today, do you really believe that your single vote means anything?
Do you really believe that you can change the problems in the world? Even your Congress cant fix anything at the moment because they are not prepared to help the country. All they want is to win power at the next election

Click to expand...

Yes, one of the central assumptions to the argument was that democracy while it doesn't really work is the best form of government for society in general.

The second part i bolded i completely agree with, the game of elections results in less than optimal policy choices. However, this "real life" (for want of a better term) fact can only be reached by extending the assumptions of the argument to include "real life" and when that happens, well there really is no point discussing anything. an important assumption to be made is that policymakers in a democracy act to maximize the utility of the population rather than get re-elected.

Just something further to the election game problem I've often thought about is requiring an individual to hold a degree in economics in order to have the right to vote, it's unconstitutional and just a little bit tyrannical but an interesting thought experiment.

In the Ancient Greek form of democracy, only the rich nobles had a right to vote. But then again they had access to asymmetrical information & financed the needs of the state .... is this what you had in mind??

enragedcow said:

Yes, one of the central assumptions to the argument was that democracy while it doesn't really work is the best form of government for society in general.

The second part i bolded i completely agree with, the game of elections results in less than optimal policy choices. However, this "real life" (for want of a better term) fact can only be reached by extending the assumptions of the argument to include "real life" and when that happens, well there really is no point discussing anything. an important assumption to be made is that policymakers in a democracy act to maximize the utility of the population rather than get re-elected.

Just something further to the election game problem I've often thought about is requiring an individual to hold a degree in economics in order to have the right to vote, it's unconstitutional and just a little bit tyrannical but an interesting thought experiment.

Click to expand...

BeginnerJoe said:

The Chinese are a pragmatic people. They would have no need for a democratic system and start invading other people. Historically, the Chinese existed in a hierarchical society where everyone had a place to serve a common grand goal. This is a more efficient form of society compared to the cannibalistic capitalism where the left hand competes with the right hand, only in the end destroying both. Confucianism cannot be supplanted by democracy. They are not in the same class.

Click to expand...

I agree. People who rant on about our great democracies in the USA and UK compared to China, rarely acknowledge that in those democracies the choice is between TweedleDee and TweedleDum.
Is there really any major difference between the Democrats and Republicans ? Or the Tories and Labour? Not really. Same sh1t, different talking heads.
The Western governments use democracy as a way of saying that they are better than the other forms of governments when really it is a rigged game between the two established Parties in each country. Democracy? My ar5e it is.