FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

This thread is called signals and strategies. Have you given clear signals, and if so what is the current record of your signals? It's daily signals so should be one every day I guess.

Have you given any strategies? And how are they doing?

I don't know about signals , I am new to T2W. Can you help me?

The US Dollar is likely to face selling pressure if the US general election yields a decisive outcome, opening the door for a re-focus on resolving the “fiscal cliff” fiasco.

Talking Points

• All Eyes on US Election, Forex Traders to Welcome Any Decisive Result
• Euro, Pound May Suffer as Data Boosts Bets on ECB and BOE Stimulus
• Aussie Dollar Leads Comm Bloc Higher as RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged

All Eyes on US Election, Forex Traders to Welcome Any Decisive Result Euro, Pound May Suffer as Data Boosts Bets on ECB and BOE Stimulus Aussie Dollar Leads Comm Bloc Higher as RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged A busy European economic calendar is likely to be overshadowed as traders await the outcome of the US general election. Financial markets appear broadly chipper, which likely reflects hopes for an easing to the deadlock in Washington DC in the months leading up to today’s ballot. Indeed, a decisive victory by either candidate that opens the door for the current President and legislature to shift their focus toward addressing the fast-approaching “fiscal cliff” – a set of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes slated to trigger at the turn of the calendar year that may tip the US back into recession – is likely to be seen as broadly supportive for risk appetite. Indeed, S&P 500 index futures are pointing higher, warning the safe-haven US Dollar is vulnerable.

On the data front, the spotlight is on the final revision of October’s Eurozone PMI Composite reading. Expectations call for confirmation at a 40-month low, an outcome that may put downward pressure on the Euro as forex traders consider deepening recession to increase the probability of additional easing from the ECB. UK Industrial Production is likewise on the docket, with forecasts pointing to another contraction in September. The result may weigh on the British Pound as markets consider the possibility of a QE expansion after the BOE completes the latest round of asset purchases this month.


The so-called “commodity bloc” currencies outperformed in overnight trade as risk appetite firmed across financial markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional stock index rose 0.2 percent, pulling the growth-geared Canadian and New Zealand Dollars higher against their US namesake. The Australian Dollar outperformed its counterparts after the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep rates unchanged at 3.25 percent. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that while “risks to the outlook are still seen to be on the downside…prices data [turned out] slightly higher than expected and recent information on the world economy slightly more positive.” Stevens added the effects of past rate cuts continue to filter into the overall economy, hinting that will offer ongoing stimulus even without an additional reduction this time around.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Upcoming News Event: Chinese CPI
Time: 8:30 pm EST (01:30 am GMT)
Currency Pair to Watch: AUD/USD

Below is a chart that illustrates the correlation between Chinese CPI and the AUD/USD exchange rate.


As you can see, Chinese CPI is currently at 3 year lows. Song Guoqing an advisor to the PBOC, China's central bank, has suggested that CPI could fall even further with growth expected be "relatively slow" in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.

If CPI comes in lower than expected, look for the Aussie dollar to sell off as the market will expect further rate cuts from Australia's central bank, the RBA.

Over the last 4 years, we’ve found ourselves in a crisis management environment that continues to drag EURUSD lower. This weekly chart shows a down trend that started with the Global Credit crisis in 2008 only to be followed by the sovereign debt crises coming to head with many key European economies.


With more bad news coming out and the dark cloud of the US fiscal cliff looming overheard, more traders could make a run for US treasuries and out of the European economy which could bring us down another leg. One thing is for sure, when fear rises the EURUSD drops.

Get more fundamental analysis at DailyFX.com

A strongly negative correlation between AUD/USD and the implied volatility prices of AUD/USD options warns that Aussie Dollar strength may ultimately prove unsustainable on a shift in forex market conditions. A bearish short-term technical forecast and uncertain fundamental outlook likewise warn of potential AUD weakness.

For more technical analysis visit DailyFX.com

As the US fiscal cliff approaches, and it becomes a center of media attention, we're left wondering what currency pairs may be impacted and which way to trade. The Globe and Mail, a newspaper in Toronto, had an interested article today about how the Canadian dollar could be affected by the US fiscal cliff.

They say the fiscal cliff "would take a huge chunk out of U.S. gross domestic product and likely push the economy back into recession, taking other countries’ economies with it. Such a scenario is bad news for a resource-based currency like Canada’s as slowing economies will slash demand for oil and metals."




The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) on DailyFX PLUS is currently net short USD/CAD at -1.24 giving a bulling signal for the pair.




From a technical standpoint, if you look at the monthly chart of USD/CAD above, it’s trading right around parity and is near the bottom of its historical range.




Ilya Spivak of DailyFX.com is also bullish on the USD/CAD and sees 1.0140 as the next target level.

The markets got a surprise today as the Japanese yen tanked on concerns that the Bank of Japan might take action to weaken the currency.


Chris Vecchio had this to say in his article on DailyFX.com:

"Today’s dramatic drop in the Japanese Yen has nothing to do with a rebound in risk-appetite, or new prospects for a stronger US Dollar. Instead, the surprise call for elections in December by current Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Wednesday, coupled with calls for unlimited easing by the Bank of Japan from opposition leader, and most likely the next leader of Japan, have dropped the Yen to its lowest value against the US Dollar since late-April."


The USDJPY has moved to the top of trend resistance near 81.15 and has broken above our key 80.50/70 level, leaving the mid-April swing high at 81.75/80 as the next major resistance level. Support comes in at 80.50/70 (former November high) and 79.10/30.


The latest SSI report on DailyFX PLUS for USD/JPY is currently giving mixed signals. The index value remains net long at 2.21 which has been the case for a long time. This is normally a bearish signal, but...


the daily change in long and short open interest indicate that a lot of traders closed out their long positions after today's up move in USD/JPY while short positions increased. This could indicate further gains in USD/JPY are possible on easing concerns.