FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

This is a discussion on FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; Note: An administrative error at the Federal Reserve forced the world’s most important central bank to make an uncommon decision: ...

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Old Apr 10, 2013, 6:07pm   #601
 
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FOMC Minutes out Early; Policymakers Signal QE3 to Taper in 2013

Jason Rogers started this thread Note: An administrative error at the Federal Reserve forced the world’s most important central bank to make an uncommon decision: release the prior month’s meeting Minutes at 09:00 EST/13:00 GMT as opposed to the typical release time of 14:00 EST/18:00 GMT. With the March Minutes being released on Tuesday at 14:00 EST/18:00 GMT to several dozen Congressional leaders and trade groups, it was necessary for the Fed to release the Minutes early today to limit potential trading on material nonpublic information.

You can stay on top of the latest news as it happens with the Real-Time News Feed at DailyFX.com

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Typically, reactions in the EURUSD and the USDJPY (among the other USD-based majors) tend to be quite volatile following the release of the Fed’s Minutes, but with their leak earlier yesterday, the direct impact on trading at 09:00 EST/13:00 GMT is less clear and accordingly, a degree immeasurable.

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) 1-minute Chart: April 10, 2013
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Those market participants got off guard by the early release, however, viewed the Minutes as constructive for the US Dollar, bidding the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) up from 10486 to as high as 10495, the session high. At the time this report was written, however, prices began to pullback and move towards the release reaction low of 10478.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 7:27pm   #602
 
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Trading Crowds Go in One Direction, DailyFX Trading Signals Gain Doing Opposite

Jason Rogers started this thread The SSI-based trading signals on DailyFXplus.com have had a great week trading the Japanese Yen meltdown, and retail forex crowd extremes offer a number of attractive trades in Yen and US Dollar pairs.

Click the image to open in full size.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but the fact that trading crowds have continued buying into Japanese Yen and US Dollar weakness suggest this move is far from over.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Indeed, Euro and British Pound short positions against the USD surged an almost-unbelievable 82 and 158 percent since last week. We would be very careful about joining the crowd at these levels—in fact we like doing the opposite.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Elevated volatility expectations in JPY pairs makes the Breakout2 trading signals particularly attractive on the EUR/JPY, while outperformance in our streak-prone Momentum2 suggests its USD and JPY-shorts may continue to do well in the days ahead.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

These DailyFX trading signals are available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com
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Old Apr 12, 2013, 7:46pm   #603
 
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SSI: Gold Long Positions Grows, Careful of Trying to Catch Falling Knives

Jason Rogers started this thread The last report for the week on the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) was just posted on DailyFXplus.com. It reveals that the ratio of long to short positions in Gold (XAU/USD) stands at 3.83 as 79% of traders are long.

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Yesterday the ratio was 3.28; 77% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 7.0% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 19.6% below levels seen last week.

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Open interest is 0.1% lower than yesterday and 0.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAU/USD may continue lower.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.
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Old Apr 15, 2013, 4:33pm   #604
 
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Gold Bear Market

Jason Rogers started this thread Today's big mover is gold down 6%+, and now down over 27% since the peak of $1920 reached in September 2011. A decline this large puts gold in bear market territory. Take a look at the chart:

Gold (XAU/USD)
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So where does gold head next? This is a very long term view going all the way back to the 2000 low around $250, and adding a fibonacci retracement finds major support near $1,281 which is the 38.2% fibonacci level.

Gold charts can be found through, and gold trading is not available for US residents. As with any form of speculative trading, please bear in mind that your capital is at risk. Good luck with trading this week!
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Old Apr 16, 2013, 5:10pm   #605
 
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Gold Outlook

Jason Rogers started this thread What's next for gold?

DailyFX Analyst Jamie Saettele sees another dive to the $1300 level before bottoming out. Here's the chart he posted to his twitter account @JamieSaettele a little earlier:

Click the image to open in full size.


Traders were very aggressively long gold going into the gold sell-off and they remain long though less so than last week. Below is a screenshot of the SSI positioning overlaid with the price of gold. Green bars indicate net long positioning and red bars indicate net short positioning. You can see the large amount of long interest in gold that has persisted throughout gold's decline since 2012.

Click the image to open in full size.

Last edited by Jason Rogers; Apr 16, 2013 at 6:57pm.
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Old Apr 17, 2013, 7:08pm   #606
 
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EUR/USD Trading Signal

Jason Rogers started this thread The Tidal Shift Strategy in DailyFX PLUS is now short EUR/USD. Here's a look at the chart and the strategy setup:

Click the image to open in full size.

The trigger for this drop seems to be speculation of a possible rate cut by the ECB:
The ECB could lower interest rates further if economic data so warrants, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying on Wednesday.

"The ECB is a central bank that likes to prepare the market for any potential changes in monetary policy and that is why Weidmann's comments are so important because it could be the first of many to follow," said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management in New York.

The euro earlier came under pressure after a media report cited former member of the ECB Executive Board Lorenzo Bini Smaghi as saying the central bank should find ways to stop the euro from gaining.

Source: Euro falls on ECB rate cut talk; yen slips before G20 | Reuters
Now we wait to see if the EUR/USD can make a clean break through the technically significant 1.3000 level.
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Old Apr 22, 2013, 4:42pm   #607
 
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SSI: AUD/USD Breakdown Gathers Pace as Retail Fades Sell-off

Jason Rogers started this thread The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long AUD/USD gives a signal that the pair may continue lower.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The ratio of long to short positions in the AUD/USD stands at 1.97 as 66% of traders are long. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. Yesterday the ratio was 1.19; 54% of open positions were long.

Click the image to open in full size.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Long positions are 35.3% higher than yesterday and 40.0% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 18.2% lower than yesterday and 1.2% above levels seen last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 10:23am   #608
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Re: FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

Jason

whats the spread on the US Dollar index on FXCM and what instruments do you offer to trade it

Thanks
N
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I've been trading Forex strengthmeters for over 14 years and happy to help .....see links here for free indicators and advice http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...ml#post2443624
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 6:24pm   #609
 
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Dollar, Yen Rally as Global PMIs Disappoint; EUR/USD Under $1.3000

Jason Rogers started this thread Dollar, Yen Rally as Global PMIs Disappoint; EUR/USD Under $1.3000

The Euro declined below 1.3000 against the US Dollar following a contraction in German services activity for the first time in five months, according to Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The sharp downturn in German PMI’s pulled the Euro about 80 points lower against the US Dollar, and the pair fell below 1.3000 for the first time in two weeks.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The Chinese HSBC PMI Manufacturing (APR) index also dropped to 50.5 from 51.6 in March, well-below the 51.5 consensus forecast. China is a key trading partner of Australia and as was to be expected, the Aussie also declined further against the US Dollar.

AUD/USD Daily Chart
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The SSI-based trading signals on DailyFX PLUS are currently saying to short the Euro, Aussie and other "risk-on" currencies versus the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

Click the image to open in full size.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

These trading signals are available as automated strategies at FXCMapps.com
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Old Apr 23, 2013, 7:53pm   #610
 
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Re: FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

Jason Rogers started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by NVP View Post
Jason

whats the spread on the US Dollar index on FXCM
Hi NVP,

The spread on USDOLLAR is variable, but it's typically 2 or 3 pips.

Click the image to open in full size.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NVP View Post
and what instruments do you offer to trade it

Thanks
N
You can trade USDOLLAR on Trading Station, MT4 and NinjaTrader.

Click the image to open in full size.

If you are asking what components make up the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, then here's a link with details: S&P Dow Jones Indices » Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index » Overview

If I have misunderstood your question about instruments, please let me know.

Jason

Last edited by Jason Rogers; Apr 23, 2013 at 8:31pm.
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