The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

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Old Apr 14, 2009, 12:11pm   #1
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The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

Hello Fellow Traders,

I'd like to share this thought: The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

Did you ever wonder why you ALWAYS lose at trading?
Did you ever wonder why just about everyone loses at trading?

The reason for this is because the odds of winning at trading are horrible.

Let me illustrate this:

When you place a trade, there are 2 ways to lose and only 1 way to win.

Here is how you lose:

1) The trade is a loser from the start.
2) The trade is winning from the start but it comes back and then you lose.

Here is how you win:

1) The trade is a winner right out of the box- This is the ONLY way to win.


Therefore, since there are 2 ways to lose and 1 way to win, the odds are 66% that you will lose and 34% that you will win

Bad timing can make these odds even worse!

It is possible to win a bet if the odds are only 34% of winning; however, you are guaranteed to lose all of your money if you keep REPEATING this bet

That is why, in trading, it is always possible to make money but extremely difficult to KEEP the money.

The only way to overcome these odds is to find something that really works well; otherwise you are guaranteed to lose all of your money

Does anyone have a strategy that can overcome these odds?
I'd love to hear because I've been looking, on and off, for over 30 years and have not found one.

Best of Luck

MrSoul
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 12:28pm   #2
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Your maths makes no sense. A 50 point stop and a 50 point target- theoretically you have a 50% chance of winning, if you believe the market is random. But entirely random its not, so you find an edge to tips the odds in your favor.
Quote:
Here is how you lose:
1) The trade is a loser from the start.
2) The trade is winning from the start but it comes back and then you lose.
These are exactly the same outcomes, so theres not two ways you lose- just one.

I find it hard to believe that you've been involved in the market for 30 yrs and expect someone on this forum to give you a holy grail, surely you know it just doesn't work like that.

Last edited by jaygo; Apr 14, 2009 at 12:44pm.
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 12:34pm   #3
 
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sorry Mr S, utter garbage .....
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 12:52pm   #4
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsoul View Post
Hello Fellow Traders,

I'd like to share this thought: The Real Reason Most Traders Lose- The Real Odds of Winning at Trading:

Did you ever wonder why you ALWAYS lose at trading?
Did you ever wonder why just about everyone loses at trading?

The reason for this is because the odds of winning at trading are horrible.

Let me illustrate this:

When you place a trade, there are 2 ways to lose and only 1 way to win.

Here is how you lose:

1) The trade is a loser from the start.
2) The trade is winning from the start but it comes back and then you lose.

Here is how you win:

1) The trade is a winner right out of the box- This is the ONLY way to win.


Therefore, since there are 2 ways to lose and 1 way to win, the odds are 66% that you will lose and 34% that you will win

Bad timing can make these odds even worse!

It is possible to win a bet if the odds are only 34% of winning; however, you are guaranteed to lose all of your money if you keep REPEATING this bet

That is why, in trading, it is always possible to make money but extremely difficult to KEEP the money.

The only way to overcome these odds is to find something that really works well; otherwise you are guaranteed to lose all of your money

Does anyone have a strategy that can overcome these odds?
I'd love to hear because I've been looking, on and off, for over 30 years and have not found one.

Best of Luck

MrSoul
I think your calulations above are suspect though you have got the right idea in that most traders are (apparently) unprofitable - IMHO this is because they have allowed the odds to be stacked against them; not because they are by some law of the universe.

Succesful trading is all about probability (in your favour). If you have a system with an edge (ie it is overall profitable) and you can get your trading discipline in order, then mathematically you will come out ahead (although almost certainly with some pain on the way). It really is that straightforward.
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Last edited by 0007; Apr 14, 2009 at 12:56pm. Reason: semantic
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 2:03pm   #5
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Quote:
1) The trade is a winner right out of the box- This is the ONLY way to win.
No it isn't


Paul
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:13pm   #6
 
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surely no coincidence that his name is Mister Ars Sole ?

a bigger one I've yet to meet .....
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:18pm   #7
 
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So what if I don't use a stop. What happens to the ways of winning?
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:27pm   #8
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Originally Posted by rathcoole_exile View Post
surely no coincidence that his name is Mister Ars Sole ?

a bigger one I've yet to meet .....
you sound like a losing trader with an ax to grind.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: james1234
Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:33pm   #9
 
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no :-)
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:38pm   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
So what if I don't use a stop. What happens to the ways of winning?

The way trading without a stop effects the odds of winning is interesting.

I really don't know how to calculate those odds.

The only thing for sure is that there must be a surrender point somewhere in order to protect the account; perhaps this is accomplished when an indicator tells you to reverse your position.

Best of Luck
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:41pm   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsoul View Post
when an indicator tells you to reverse your position.
a what ?

wtf is an indicator ? i thought this thread was about winning at trading ? indicator ?



indicator ?
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:45pm   #12
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perhaps there is an indicator to tell when traders bullsh*t about their experience?
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:49pm   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
So what if I don't use a stop. What happens to the ways of winning?
Ask Spanish
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:53pm   #14
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Originally Posted by jaygo View Post
perhaps there is an indicator to tell when traders bullsh*t about their experience?
perhaps there is an indicator to tell when traders are hostile about losing there money or just hostile in general
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Old Apr 14, 2009, 3:56pm   #15
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Originally Posted by mrsoul View Post
perhaps there is an indicator to tell when traders are hostile about losing there money or just hostile in general
im not sure there is one.... i look into it. But seriously you come on here saying you have 30 years of experience and then consider using no stops as a strategy, somebody shoot me.
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