EURUSD Elliott Wave Updates

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Old Dec 10, 2008, 4:29am   #1
Joined Nov 2008
Lightbulb EURUSD Elliott Wave Updates

Hi, I'm using an Elliott Wave as the main tool to help me trade. I use it together with EMA, RSI, MACD, Fibonacci and Trend line. It works very well for me, so I would like to share my wave count view here. I'll update the chart on any possible trend daily or as often as I have available time.
If anyone here have anything to share, please don't hesitate to do so. I would love to see other people views too.

Let's first see the big picture on the chart.

If we count the wave right in the bigger picture, This should currently be a fourth wave(yellow).
And we expecting a Triangle correction here, so there will have A,B,C,D and E wave.
The E wave may already done, or can be another up move to complete E wave.
Once E wave done, we can expect to see another down move to the fifth wave(yellow).

Click to see 240 minutes chart

To understand thing clearer, let's have a look at the big picture for an example.

In this weekly chart:
Click to see weekly chart

you'll see that the fourth wave (both iv pink) was forming with complicated correction. This is normal for corrective pattern. There are only 4 main categories of corrective wave.

Corrective wave has four categories:
1. Zigzags
2. Flats
3. Triangles
4. Double & Triple Threes.

And the rule of alternation is fourth wave will be vary from second wave. This mean, if the second wave is simple correction, the fourth wave will be complicated, and vice versa. (see wave ii(pink) and iv(pink) for an example)

And in our case, there are currently two cases of possibility in big picture.

1. The current down trend is forming 1,2,3,4 and 5 wave (yellow), we weight our wave count on this pattern.
We just don't know exactly what would be the end of wave 4. As you can see wave 2?(yellow) is simple correction, so we can expect to see a complicated correction here if it's really a wave 4?(yellow)

2. The current down trend is forming A,B,C (green) pattern.
This can also be the ABC correction, it may or may not completed the formation. So we'll have to plan for this move if EURUSD move higher.
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Old Dec 11, 2008, 4:36am   #2
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forexbullbear started this thread Yesterday's short term move was still moving up. However the big picture view is still in Triangle correction as long as the price does not move above the pink line(C yellow).
The current move in 240 minutes chart is also moving in Triangle and RSI is making a divergence, we may see some price drop soon.
However, at this point as the price is very close to the C(yellow) wave, we will have to think of another possibility of wave pattern, especially when the price do move above the pink line(C yellow).

Click the image to open in full size.

If the price do move above the pink line, the whole pattern will change.
We can think of the possibility that C(yellow) may not yet done and it will move higher again once it made some correction.

Click to see another possible wave pattern...
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Old Dec 11, 2008, 3:00pm   #3
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forexbullbear started this thread The wave pattern is changing now. This seem to be a bullish Extension in Wave3 heading to C(yellow) wave as it goes up without any correction. We can expect to see it move much higher than A(yellow) wave.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 11, 2008, 3:25pm   #4
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forexbullbear started this thread How far the current up trend will be going is depend on the wave pattern in daily chart. From the latest high down to the latest low, we can currently see it in two cases.

1.The daily down move is 1,2,3 yellow and the current up move will only move to wave 4 yellow. If this is the case we can expect the price to move to about Fibonacci 38.2%, and not move higher than wave 1 yellow (pink line).

2.The daily down move is A,B,C blue and the current up move will make another big A,B,C up. If this is the case we can expect the price to move higher than Fibonacci 38.2% and higher than wave 1 yellow (pink line)

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 12, 2008, 3:21am   #5
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forexbullbear started this thread EURUSD still making a bullish Extension Wave. The price is above EMA50(light blue) and EMA200(white) in 60 minutes chart, we can expect to see the price to move up higher. Currently, it may already done or nearly complete wave iii(pink) and RSI is quite overbought, we can expect to see some correction to wave iv(pink) and then up again to complete wave v(pink) and also complete wave 3(green).

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 12, 2008, 4:32pm   #6
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forexbullbear started this thread Look like wave iii(pink is done) and we are in wave iv(pink). This correction might be a Flat Correction? Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 15, 2008, 4:22am   #7
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forexbullbear started this thread The current move seem that EURUSD may already done the fourth wave correction and heading to the fifth wave.
Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 16, 2008, 4:08am   #8
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forexbullbear started this thread Hi,
Looking into 60 minutes chart.
We're still in the bullish extension wave. We'll have to keep watching the EMA5(light red), EMA10(light orange) and EMA50 (light blue), if the price can stay up above EMA50 we can expect for more up move.
Currently, there seem to nearly done the third wave (3? orange bracket in chart and 3 circle in pattern), so there may be some correction soon.

Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 16, 2008, 1:33pm   #9
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forexbullbear started this thread 12:18 PM GMT time,
It turned out that we're on the right track as the last move was completed in Ending Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) wave. We have to look into 15 minutes chart for all the 5?(light blue) wave.

Look back in 60 minutes chart, the first support of the correction is EMA50(light blue) and then Fibonacci 38.2%

Ending Diagonal:
-occurs primarily in the fifth wave, when the prior move has gone "too far too fast"
- In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.
-take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three, 3-3-3-3-3"


Click the image to open in full size.
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Old Dec 17, 2008, 5:44am   #10
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forexbullbear started this thread Hi everyone,

Yesterday correction was very small and it extend more extension. As we're still in the Bullish Extension, you may see that EMA5 EMA10 and EMA50 is still in up trend. Yesterday, the price only drop to the EMA50 line in 30 minutes chart and turn up.
You can use EMA5 EMA10 EMA50 and EMA200 in a shorter time frame to see if the short term is still up.

To my experience, those EMA is the great tools to look for a strong trend.


Click the image to open in full size.
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