Which currency is safest?

arabianights

arabianights

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Look at this.

Over the last couple of months I've been becoming completely paranoid about currency. I can't think that any of them are especially safe. Even CHF which most of my money was in till Friday where (I now think foolishly) I hedged on the GBPCHF collapse has large exposures to banking and emerging markets.

Which currency should you keep most of your money in? I have emergency funds in a few different currencies now but am looking for a safe haven for most of it - and can't find any!
 
Yuan!

Most of mine is in NZ$ as it goes.
 
Last edited:
FYI Arabian...

I'm sure you have already done this but............
 

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arabianights said:
Which currency should you keep most of your money in? I have emergency funds in a few different currencies now but am looking for a safe haven for most of it - and can't find any!
Click to expand...

Why not just hold a basket of all the major currencies? They are pretty much all just going to appreciate and depreciate vis-a-vis each other.
 
arabianights said:
Look at this.

Over the last couple of months I've been becoming completely paranoid about currency. I can't think that any of them are especially safe. Even CHF which most of my money was in till Friday where (I now think foolishly) I hedged on the GBPCHF collapse has large exposures to banking and emerging markets.

Which currency should you keep most of your money in? I have emergency funds in a few different currencies now but am looking for a safe haven for most of it - and can't find any!
Click to expand...

Identify currencies that you think are weak and short them relative to ones you think are somewhat strong.

I think it's a lot easier to identify weak currencies right now than "strong" safe-haven ones, and you can use them to preserve your wealth just the same.

BTW, if it isn't crystal clear, USD and JPY are *the* safe-haven currencies of choice right now. Long-term, who knows.
 
LuckyFX said:
BTW, if it isn't crystal clear, USD and JPY are *the* safe-haven currencies of choice right now. Long-term, who knows.
Click to expand...

I definitely wouldn't be calling the JPY a safe-haven currency at the moment. It's not going up because of that. Carry trade unwinding has a massive amount to do with it.

I'm not even convinced you could call the USD a safe-haven play. I'd argue that it's gains have been created by the huge demand for dollars caused by this credit crunch - meaning USD needed to fufill commitments. That's why the Fed has created essentially unlimited swap lines with the other central banks, because there's a shortage of USD liquidity.
 
I'm with Rhody, minimum regret comes from a mixed basket. I tend to weight it towards where I'm going to be living.

For me at least, speculation is a different realm to protecting the currency I need to live with.
 
Rhody Trader said:
I definitely wouldn't be calling the JPY a safe-haven currency at the moment. It's not going up because of that. Carry trade unwinding has a massive amount to do with it.

I'm not even convinced you could call the USD a safe-haven play. I'd argue that it's gains have been created by the huge demand for dollars caused by this credit crunch - meaning USD needed to fufill commitments. That's why the Fed has created essentially unlimited swap lines with the other central banks, because there's a shortage of USD liquidity.
Click to expand...

I'm well aware of the reasons for the high demand for JPY, and agree that USD is partially in demand because of reasons besides safety.

What matters is, when everyone got scared, people started buying up JPY and USD.


If "safe-haven" currency means insulated from international market crisis, there isn't one.

I'm in agreement with the basket currency suggestion - if you want to make sure your own country's blunders don't make you relatively worse off than the average person, just spread your money everywhere.


:)
 
Buy a white vest, dip it in some mud and grease and smear some blood over it.

Buy a pump-action shotgun.

Put on the vest (Be sure to do this after buying the shotgun)

Change all of your money up for gold bars.

Sit on the pile of gold bars with the shotgun and proceed to pump the gun whilst looking mean if anyone walks near.
 
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