Forex Trend For GBPUSD

I need some assistance for the above currency pair which has dropped in the last 4weeks from a high of 1.4250 to 1.3730 approx. The confusion is U.S. unemployment figure came to 231k compared to previous of 210k on Thursday and there was no impact on the currency pair.
Today Non Farm Pay Roll came up with a figure of 313k compared to a previous figure of 200k still no impact on the currency as we observed a strong GPB against the USD.
Any thought on this and how we will see the market before 20-21 March 2018 which is the calendar for FOMC meeting for March. There might be a rate hike which could strenghten the USD. I might be wrong but contribution and thoughts till the end of the months trade will help identify if the GBPUSD is bullish or bearish noting the Dollar index has been gaining in recent times, however the Monthly Chart for Dollar index indicates a downward trend.:innocent:

Tempted said:

I need some assistance for the above currency pair which has dropped in the last 4weeks from a high of 1.4250 to 1.3730 approx. The confusion is U.S. unemployment figure came to 231k compared to previous of 210k on Thursday and there was no impact on the currency pair.
Today Non Farm Pay Roll came up with a figure of 313k compared to a previous figure of 200k still no impact on the currency as we observed a strong GPB against the USD.
Any thought on this and how we will see the market before 20-21 March 2018 which is the calendar for FOMC meeting for March. There might be a rate hike which could strenghten the USD. I might be wrong but contribution and thoughts till the end of the months trade will help identify if the GBPUSD is bullish or bearish noting the Dollar index has been gaining in recent times, however the Monthly Chart for Dollar index indicates a downward trend.:innocent:

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des dis ting called brexit, its kinda messin wiv tings

maybez homeboyz @Brumby or @FXX knows a ting or two, coz i aint gots a scooby

Tempted said:

I need some assistance for the above currency pair which has dropped in the last 4weeks from a high of 1.4250 to 1.3730 approx.

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Whilst in recent weeks prices had been trending down, there are trade opportunities with setups such as failures and channel trades. Having said that, it is obviously with hindsight and trading is about the right side of the chart. Based on recent price structure, there are two way trade opportunities.

Tempted said:

The confusion is U.S. unemployment figure came to 231k compared to previous of 210k on Thursday and there was no impact on the currency pair.

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I would just go with the market and not read too much into it unless you have some further insight on it

Tempted said:

Today Non Farm Pay Roll came up with a figure of 313k compared to a previous figure of 200k still no impact on the currency as we observed a strong GPB against the USD.

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The market did react marginally on the headline jobs number but the offset was its miss on the average earnings - a more important data point for inflation and prospective rate rise. With GBP, don't forget about Brexit news and its continuing spanner on sentiments.

Tempted said:

Any thought on this and how we will see the market before 20-21 March 2018 which is the calendar for FOMC meeting for March. There might be a rate hike which could strenghten the USD. I might be wrong but contribution and thoughts till the end of the months trade will help identify if the GBPUSD is bullish or bearish noting the Dollar index has been gaining in recent times, however the Monthly Chart for Dollar index indicates a downward trend.:innocent:

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FOMC is a long way away in my books. In the interim if you see opportnuities then trade it, if not ignore the pair. We are in the trading business not prediction business, a point that some folks tend to think is synonymous.

^^^ thanks for this mate

Brumby said:

Whilst in recent weeks prices had been trending down, there are trade opportunities with setups such as failures and channel trades. Having said that, it is obviously with hindsight and trading is about the right side of the chart. Based on recent price structure, there are two way trade opportunities.

I would just go with the market and not read too much into it unless you have some further insight on it


The market did react marginally on the headline jobs number but the offset was its miss on the average earnings - a more important data point for inflation and prospective rate rise. With GBP, don't forget about Brexit news and its continuing spanner on sentiments.



FOMC is a long way away in my books. In the interim if you see opportnuities then trade it, if not ignore the pair. We are in the trading business not prediction business, a point that some folks tend to think is synonymous.

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We are definitely in the trade to make money, however what affects the dollar affects the currency pairs. You also need to know that the currency strenght is determined by six major currencies which means while dollar is doing something in terms of strength we are bound to see an effect on the other 5 currencies!

Tempted said:

however what affects the dollar affects the currency pairs. You also need to know that the currency strenght is determined by six major currencies which means while dollar is doing something in terms of strength we are bound to see an effect on the other 5 currencies!

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If you are into trading using fundamentals, it is not just about identifying strength but relatve strength. Fundamentals depending on the news or data, drives long or short term sentiments. The strategy is to pair currency strength to currency weakness. For example, the recent news on North Korea has changed the risk tone and the risk flow to currencies with commodities currency benefiting and the risk flow out of the yen. The strategy then would be to be long on either CADJPY or AUDJPY rather than the focus being on the USD.

Brumby said:

If you are into trading using fundamentals, it is not just about identifying strength but relatve strength. Fundamentals depending on the news or data, drives long or short term sentiments. The strategy is to pair currency strength to currency weakness. For example, the recent news on North Korea has changed the risk tone and the risk flow to currencies with commodities currency benefiting and the risk flow out of the yen. The strategy then would be to be long on either CADJPY or AUDJPY rather than the focus being on the USD.

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Those who know do not speak
Those who speak do not know
Since I have spoken, I do not know

I hear, I see, I learn, I do...

Brumby said:

If you are into trading using fundamentals, it is not just about identifying strength but relatve strength. Fundamentals depending on the news or data, drives long or short term sentiments. The strategy is to pair currency strength to currency weakness. For example, the recent news on North Korea has changed the risk tone and the risk flow to currencies with commodities currency benefiting and the risk flow out of the yen. The strategy then would be to be long on either CADJPY or AUDJPY rather than the focus being on the USD.

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The Bottom Line

The U.S. dollar exerts a great influence on the world economy. With the dollar set to rally through the next few years, many countries will be caught up in the wake. The effect of a strong dollar will differ for countries depending on each nation’s economic structure and policies .

Tempted said:

The Bottom Line

The U.S. dollar exerts a great influence on the world economy. With the dollar set to rally through the next few years, many countries will be caught up in the wake. The effect of a strong dollar will differ for countries depending on each nation’s economic structure and policies .

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Educate me. How do you formulate a trading strategy or strategies from your opinion?

Brumby said:

Educate me. How do you formulate a trading strategy or strategies from your opinion?

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You seem to know more than i do. I would learn from you on the long term. You are able to check your trend on the higher frames 1D, 4H, 1H chart, however if you know what your currency strength are it would help in taking appropriate decision on your trade!

Fro my usual longer-term trading I have this down as "confused". We could be in a 5 week downtrend or we could be in a descending triangle in an 11mth uptrend. Descending triangles can be seen right along this pair's price movement. Brexit talks are the main factor.

A good test of the underlying demand for a currency is the impact of bearish news. As seen recently here, price tends not to fall or not to fall much on bearish news when the uptrend is "real".

Tempted said:

I need some assistance for the above currency pair which has dropped in the last 4weeks from a high of 1.4250 to 1.3730 approx. The confusion is U.S. unemployment figure came to 231k compared to previous of 210k on Thursday and there was no impact on the currency pair.
Today Non Farm Pay Roll came up with a figure of 313k compared to a previous figure of 200k still no impact on the currency as we observed a strong GPB against the USD.
Any thought on this and how we will see the market before 20-21 March 2018 which is the calendar for FOMC meeting for March. There might be a rate hike which could strenghten the USD. I might be wrong but contribution and thoughts till the end of the months trade will help identify if the GBPUSD is bullish or bearish noting the Dollar index has been gaining in recent times, however the Monthly Chart for Dollar index indicates a downward trend.:innocent:

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The Forex thread

"Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"

updated today makes GBPUSD trend predictions each day. See the last post. Until the GBPUSD closes on Friday above the weekly long term trend channel middle which is now 1.3958 then GBPUSD is bearish and the trend is down.

Tempted said:

You are able to check your trend on the higher frames 1D, 4H, 1H chart, however if you know what your currency strength are it would help in taking appropriate decision on your trade!

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The pairing of a currency strength against another currency weakness is a core underlying principle in trading using fundamentals. However the determination of their relative strength is not some general opinion but is based on specific event trigger either in the form of fundamental data release or news which drives their respective sentiments. Such sentiments depending on the driver, can last a session, multi sessions, days or weeks. As such, the trade opportunities arising thereof are ephemeral. The challenge as always is how to formulate a trade strategy to account for market moving events that offers a tradable opportunity. An opinion about a currency is meaningless unless it is coupled to market events.

For example, last Friday's NFP job was very strong but tapered somewhat by soft average earnings. Nevertheless the net sentiments is still positive with the market pricing in a rate rise at 88 % probability this coming FOMC. Conversely, the North Korea news last week has also shifted the risk tone on safe haven currency like the yen. A trade plan I am contemplating is to position into a risk event by buying the rumour and selling the fact into the FOMC rate decision. My choice would be long USDJPY. This doesn't mean I would simply just buy at market but I would consider any pullbacks as long opportunity to position for a trade.

Brumby said:

Educate me. How do you formulate a trading strategy or strategies from your opinion?

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Simple. Strong economy - strong performance of local companies - money inflow and currency appreciation as a consequence. US assets posted serious bullish run and even with growth prospects their further run seen limited. Investors will probably turn their focus to EM markets with higher yields, maybe Eurozone, so I long term bearish on dollar

gerryg said:

Simple. Strong economy - strong performance of local companies - money inflow and currency appreciation as a consequence. US assets posted serious bullish run and even with growth prospects their further run seen limited. Investors will probably turn their focus to EM markets with higher yields, maybe Eurozone, so I long term bearish on dollar

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So educate me further. What is the trade strategy on the dollar then since you are bearish on the dollar?