Where in the cycle are the major currencies?

This is a discussion on Where in the cycle are the major currencies? within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by Nowler Do you mean lending? Not trying to correct you...if it's not a typo then I don't ...

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Old Jan 2, 2018, 11:03pm   #33
FXX
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Do you mean lending?
Not trying to correct you...if it's not a typo then I don't understand.
tha'ts a typo

yes, i mean lending.
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Old Jan 2, 2018, 11:15pm   #34
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yes thats another typo, i'm currently into my 6th bottle of the good stuff.
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 12:30am   #35
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Nowler started this thread If high interest rates negatively affect lending and therefore overall spending, ergo deflating an economy through restriction of credit...then why is an economy increasing rates seen as a bullish thing? If it's essentially putting a deflationary pressure on the economy...restricting the freedom of the cogs if you will
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 12:42am   #36
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Originally Posted by Nowler View Post
If high interest rates negatively affect lending and therefore overall spending, ergo deflating an economy through restriction of credit...then why is an economy increasing rates seen as a bullish thing? If it's essentially putting a deflationary pressure on the economy...restricting the freedom of the cogs if you will
Lag, takes time for the effects to kick in. There is still tons of free and easy money swilling around, this is why we have rampant inflation (true inflation) not the made up nonsense that govt puts out.
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 1:39am   #37
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It is unfortunate that some of the conversations in this thread has degenerated into meaningless snipes on a subject out of ignorance. Those who do not use fundamentals to trade is clueless on how economic data are used for trading and very often associate it to a conversation of economic theory.

I use fundamentals to trade just as FXX. We have been taught by different people but our approach is similar simply because it is how institutional traders trade and likewise how we are taught in terms of approach. In simple terms, we are taught how to understand sentiment flows because it drives order flows which obviously drive price movements. Sentiments can last a single session or multi sessions depending on the nature of the economic event. It is about "why" in taking a position rather than simply "how" as in technical analysis. The two approaches can be complimentary and provide a more complete picture of the environment in which a trade is taken.
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 2:16am   #38
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Lag, takes time for the effects to kick in. There is still tons of free and easy money swilling around, this is why we have rampant inflation (true inflation) not the made up nonsense that govt puts out.
Could you elaborate please?
I was under the impression that hiking rates stimulated the market and then the chart goes up
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 2:50am   #39
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In reply to the original post to this thread in term of economic cycle, I don't know and I don't care. Does knowing where it is helps me in making my trade decisions when using fundamentals to trade - NO. This is illustrative of why one can go off tangent when attempting to understand how to fuse fundamental data to trade opportunities.

As FXX mentioned, FOMC is up on Wednesday. It is potentially a tradeable risk event. Will it be - I don't know. What do I need to do? I will refresh my notes from the Dec 13 FOMC meeting minutes and any analyst preview. There are 3 prospective hikes signaled for 2018 with the earliest expected in March 2018. The complication is that at the beginning of the year, there are some rotation of voting members. Key statement to watch will be reference to a March hike. Currently Fed watch is pricing in above even.
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Old Jan 3, 2018, 1:24pm   #40
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In reply to the original post to this thread in term of economic cycle, I don't know and I don't care. Does knowing where it is helps me in making my trade decisions when using fundamentals to trade - NO. This is illustrative of why one can go off tangent when attempting to understand how to fuse fundamental data to trade opportunities.

As FXX mentioned, FOMC is up on Wednesday. It is potentially a tradeable risk event. Will it be - I don't know. What do I need to do? I will refresh my notes from the Dec 13 FOMC meeting minutes and any analyst preview. There are 3 prospective hikes signaled for 2018 with the earliest expected in March 2018. The complication is that at the beginning of the year, there are some rotation of voting members. Key statement to watch will be reference to a March hike. Currently Fed watch is pricing in above even.
Surely knowing when an economy is stretched to almost breaking point can bring big potential to make money (going short)?

Or knowing that an economy has already been through a successful recessive period after living beyond means and debt catching up with them. Surely locating an economy in this situation which has low interest rates and GDP picking up might present opportunities for going long? Therefore, knowing the stage within cycles should, in my head, present opportunities...?

Before anyone says it, yes, I know one is not merely buying or selling 1 particular currency. It's against another currency.
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