Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 7:39pm   #1
gka
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Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.
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File Type: pdf vrm-05.pdf (427.3 KB, 258 views)
File Type: pdf charts-01.pdf (187.5 KB, 215 views)
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 7:52pm   #2
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a simple straight line works for me and TRO ? .......

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:09pm   #3
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Originally Posted by gka View Post
Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.
Hi Graham, looks very interesting.

Could this methodology be applied to Stock indices? Have you done any work in that area?
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:14pm   #4
gka
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a simple straight line works for me and TRO ? .......

N
Hi... I am not familiar with the abbreviation TRO...
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:15pm   #5
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Hi Graham, looks very interesting.

Could this methodology be applied to Stock indices? Have you done any work in that area?
Yes I believe that it can be applied to stock indices. Which stock index are you interested in?
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:21pm   #6
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Hi... I am not familiar with the abbreviation TRO...
sorry Graham - the rumpled one ......check him out here and on youtube

known him for years ..........

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:22pm   #7
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Yes I believe that it can be applied to stock indices. Which stock index are you interested in?
Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:26pm   #8
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Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.
I can try out the algorithm on these indices and get back to you.
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:28pm   #9
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Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.
relative strength is a powerful tool ......
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Old Dec 17, 2017, 8:34pm   #10
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relative strength is a powerful tool ......
Yes, you should see my set up.
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Old Dec 18, 2017, 9:08pm   #11
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Originally Posted by gka View Post
Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.
Have you made any upgrades to this public algorithm or is it custom-built version from you? I mean what you find from public is dead thing, as profitable methods are already price in and eliminate earning opportunity.
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Old Dec 18, 2017, 9:40pm   #12
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Have you made any upgrades to this public algorithm or is it custom-built version from you? I mean what you find from public is dead thing, as profitable methods are already price in and eliminate earning opportunity.
The VRM algorithm is built from scratch by myself using a new approach to extrapolation that is effectively interpolation using historic high, low & close data. After the end of the New York close tonight I will show you an example of the FX pair GBPUSD.
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Old Dec 18, 2017, 11:47pm   #13
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gka started this thread Following yesterday's VRM predictions for the support & resistance levels of GBPUSD here are the results as New York closes. I attach two 30 minute charts showing GBPUSD price action. Top chart shows yesterday's predicted weekly levels. Bottom chart shows yesterday's daily predicted levels. Both charts also show an EMA channel of (4,7). Time is GMT-4. The high for the day was at the weekly predicted level 1.3416. The low for the day started at the daily level 1.3319. The market was unable to pull the EMA channel through the VRM level 1.3401. Did anyone predict the daily high resistance level? What methods are other using? Feedback appreciated!
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2017-12-18-gbpusd.png  
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Old Dec 19, 2017, 12:30am   #14
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gka started this thread I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm in New York. A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.
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Old Dec 19, 2017, 11:13pm   #15
gka
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gka started this thread Last night I attached the support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for Tuesday. Here are the results. Weekly levels in the top 30 minute chart, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Weekly VRM level 1.3397 featured as the day's high. The market then fell to VRM daily level 1.3347. There were some large gaps between VRM levels.

Did anyone find a resistance level about 1.3397 using other technical analysis techniques?

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow shortly.
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2017-12-19-gbpusd.png  
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