Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

This is a discussion on Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by DionysusToast AKA Curve Fitting.... I can assure you the VRM is not curve fitting. Nothing is extrapolated ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Dec 30, 2017, 2:43am   #46
gka
Joined Dec 2017
gka started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
AKA Curve Fitting....
I can assure you the VRM is not curve fitting. Nothing is extrapolated from the past. The VRM calculates a Hamiltonian for the market then uses this to specify levels in the next time interval. The Hamiltonian is unique and written in stone for the market. It is derived from all the historical data available.
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Dec 31, 2017, 3:06am   #47
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
Joined Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
Thank you for your observations. Can markets be predicted? Why are there so many different approaches? Everybody is trying to find the solution! My approach is the same approach to describe the murmurations of starlings. If you look at just one starling in a flock then it's flight path is all over the place. Looks completely random. Yet together all the thousands of starlings make a cloud with an undulating surface. Does each starling know what every other starling knows?. Together do all the FX traders have some common quality. Banks such as the BoE can draw lines and Soros can break them.

I can only test my assumptions by doing the maths and by making the predictions and seeing what happens each day.

As I wrote in my last comment. Not all the 24 levels are needed because some are duplicates and some are just 2 pips close so can be discarded. Tonight the VRM GBPUSD chart at the end of the day needed 7 weekly levels and 8 daily levels.

Your approach is based on the following assumptions.

1 - That the markets can be predicted
2 - That the way to make money in the markets is to predict a turning point in the markets
3 - That these predictions are mathematical in nature

You have assumed the above to be true. I would argue that all are demonstrably false.

For any market to stop trading in one direction and start trading in another, it will take the majority of participants (weighted by their clip size) to start behaving in a different way. You have provided no explanation of why they would - yet that is the basis for any trading method.

By drawing so many lines on a chart, then of course one of the lines will work - but as you are a mathematician, perhaps your next calculation should be....

How many times can you afford to trade failed levels and still be profitable from the ones that work?

I would go back and review the top 3 assumptions but most in your position will not because have they have so much sunk into this that they feel something will be lost if they hit reset. It's the old sunk cost fallacy...

I will end on one riddle that will help - because I do not just mean to trash what you are doing & you did mention atarlings.

If you mapped out 5,000 people in a shopping mall at 10:30am on a Saturday morning, how could you (mathematically or otherwise) tell where each of these 5,000 people would be in 15 minutes time?

The answer will lead you to where you should be focusing your efforts.
__________________
The proof of the pudding is whether there is actually any pudding in the first place.

Last edited by DionysusToast; Dec 31, 2017 at 3:16am.
DionysusToast is offline Software vendor   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 1, 2018, 4:11pm   #48
gka
Joined Dec 2017
gka started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
Your approach is based on the following assumptions.

1 - That the markets can be predicted
2 - That the way to make money in the markets is to predict a turning point in the markets
3 - That these predictions are mathematical in nature

You have assumed the above to be true. I would argue that all are demonstrably false.

For any market to stop trading in one direction and start trading in another, it will take the majority of participants (weighted by their clip size) to start behaving in a different way. You have provided no explanation of why they would - yet that is the basis for any trading method.

By drawing so many lines on a chart, then of course one of the lines will work - but as you are a mathematician, perhaps your next calculation should be....

How many times can you afford to trade failed levels and still be profitable from the ones that work?

I would go back and review the top 3 assumptions but most in your position will not because have they have so much sunk into this that they feel something will be lost if they hit reset. It's the old sunk cost fallacy...

I will end on one riddle that will help - because I do not just mean to trash what you are doing & you did mention atarlings.

If you mapped out 5,000 people in a shopping mall at 10:30am on a Saturday morning, how could you (mathematically or otherwise) tell where each of these 5,000 people would be in 15 minutes time?

The answer will lead you to where you should be focusing your efforts.
================================================== ====================

Thank you for your observations.

Following your assumptions....

1.) Everyone is trying to predict the markets. In John Murphy's book on technical analysis there are many ways to draw lines at different timescales carrying out many different types of analysis...Gann, Fibonacci, Wedge, Bollinger, RSI, Triangles.....and on. So are you saying that everyone's effort to predict the markets is futile?

2.) Many of the technical trading analysis methods are trying to predict the turning point in the market. These reversals can be used to start and end trades. Are you saying that trying to predict reversals is futile?

3.) Many trading indicators are mathematical in nature. Such as RSI, Gann and MAs. There is lots of maths out there. Are you saying that using maths is futile?

The VRM generates 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. There are large gaps. Surely it is worth the time to look for the large gaps and make that trade. You may have noticed that the sentiment levels labelled Sn are often bunched together. I call them the asteroid belt. When the market is within these levels then there will be lots of collisions with these levels as the market at different time scales fight with each other. Surely that information is useful.

Every night I present a set of levels where reversals could occur. If the maths is correct then this eliminates a lot of the real number system where reversals do not occur. And at 5 pm New York time I present the actual price action overlapping the VRM levels. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. To test the maths look at the results.

Finally your analogy of a crowd in a shopping mall. Interestingly mathematicians have tried to model that as well. See

http://reu.dimacs.rutgers.edu/2015/D...ccoli-2015.pdf

I would have enjoyed being at that presentation
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 1, 2018, 4:17pm   #49
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD predictions ending 5pm 2nd January 2018

gka started this thread I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 2nd January in New York.

A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 1, 2018, 4:27pm   #50
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
Joined Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
================================================== ====================

Thank you for your observations.

Following your assumptions....

1.) Everyone is trying to predict the markets. In John Murphy's book on technical analysis there are many ways to draw lines at different timescales carrying out many different types of analysis...Gann, Fibonacci, Wedge, Bollinger, RSI, Triangles.....and on. So are you saying that everyone's effort to predict the markets is futile?
This is incorrect. Retail traders that don't make money are trying to predict the markets. That is not 'everyone'. All of the stuff you mentioned - Gann, Fibonacci, Bollinger, RSI represent failed attempts at trying to predict the market.

Think about this - which is statistically more likely at any point in time...

A) The markets will continue to do what they are currently doing
B) The markets will suddenly change and do something else

You are attempting to make money from B. Yet, you can make money from A. And we both know that A is more likely at any point in time.

The reason you are looking at B so hard is that you have been fished into the retail myth that trading is about finding a turning point in the markets.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
2.) Many of the technical trading analysis methods are trying to predict the turning point in the market. These reversals can be used to start and end trades. Are you saying that trying to predict reversals is futile?
Technical analysis is the domain of sell-side finance. It exists to entice people to trade. So for example - when you see a technical analyst on TV explaining his view of the market - he is not a trader. He is someone employed to generate interest in the market.

Look up the difference between buy side and sell side finance. Then you will come closer to understanding the reason the information you are using exists.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
3.) Many trading indicators are mathematical in nature. Such as RSI, Gann and MAs. There is lots of maths out there. Are you saying that using maths is futile?
Indicators do not work. Period. They have no predictive value. If one did - someone would have proven that it did. Did you ever wonder why there were so many of them in your average trading platform?

To be at the point you are at - you must have tested indicators and found them lacking already. After all why develop anything if you can just use a couple of Bollingers and a MACD?

Your conclusion - they just weren't the 'right' indicators - so you try to code your own up.

If 95% of traders fail and almost all the information you find about trading is technical analysis - use math to figure out the chance that you are really looking in the right place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
The VRM generates 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. There are large gaps. Surely it is worth the time to look for the large gaps and make that trade. You may have noticed that the sentiment levels labelled Sn are often bunched together. I call them the asteroid belt. When the market is within these levels then there will be lots of collisions with these levels as the market at different time scales fight with each other. Surely that information is useful.
No information is useful for what you are trying to do. You will always find yourself selling a market that is moving up and buying a market that is moving down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
Every night I present a set of levels where reversals could occur. If the maths is correct then this eliminates a lot of the real number system where reversals do not occur. And at 5 pm New York time I present the actual price action overlapping the VRM levels. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. To test the maths look at the results.
The only thing of importance in trading is....

- Why would traders behave a certain way after you enter?

Something you have not explained. You have no 'why' - only math.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
Finally your analogy of a crowd in a shopping mall. Interestingly mathematicians have tried to model that as well. See

http://reu.dimacs.rutgers.edu/2015/D...ccoli-2015.pdf

I would have enjoyed being at that presentation
You see - this is where common sense comes into it. The answer to the question "how do you know where they will all be in 15 minutes is simple" - you set off the fire alarm. They would all be outside.

What you need to be doing is finding the markets fire alarms.

There 'book smarts' and 'street smarts. The best traders have more of the latter than the former.
__________________
The proof of the pudding is whether there is actually any pudding in the first place.

Last edited by DionysusToast; Jan 1, 2018 at 4:37pm.
DionysusToast is offline Software vendor   Reply With Quote
Thanks! The following members like this post: f2calv
Old Jan 1, 2018, 4:36pm   #51
gka
Joined Dec 2017
gka started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by DionysusToast View Post
This is incorrect. Retail traders that don't make money are trying to predict the markets. That is not 'everyone'. All of the stuff you mentioned - Gann, Fibonacci, Bollinger, RSI represent failed attempts at trying to predict the market.

Think about this - which is statistically more likely at any point in time...

A) The markets will continue to do what they are currently doing
B) The markets will suddenly change and do something else

You are attempting to make money from B. Yet, you can make money from A. And we both know that A is more likely at any point in time.

The reason you are looking at B so hard is that you have been fished into the retail myth that trading is about finding a turning point in the markets.




Technical analysis is the domain of sell-side finance. It exists to entice people to trade. So for example - when you see a technical analyst on TV explaining his view of the market - he is not a trader. He is someone employed to generate interest in the market.

Look up the difference between buy side and sell side finance. Then you will come closer to understanding the reason the information you are using exists.



Indicators do not work. Period. They have no predictive value. If one did - someone would have proven that it did. Did you ever wonder why there were so many of them in your average trading platform?



No information is useful for what you are trying to do. You will always find yourself selling a market that is moving up and buying a market that is moving down.



The only thing of importance in trading is....

- Why would traders behave a certain way after you enter

Something you have not explained.



You see - this is where common sense comes into it. The answer to the question "how do you know where they will all be in 15 minutes is simple" - you set off the fire alarm. They would all be outside.

What you need to be doing is finding the markets fire alarms.

But even better - just buy when it's moving up instead of always betting against the market.

Even better still - if 95% of traders fail and almost all the information you find about trading is technical analysis - use math to figure out the chance that you are really looking in the right place.

There 'book smarts' and 'street smarts. The best traders have more of the latter than the former.
================================================== ===================

Thank you for your observations. You clearly have more trading experience that I. I have no more to add.
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 2, 2018, 9:49pm   #52
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD, EURGBP and EURUSD results 2nd January

gka started this thread Last night I attached the predicted support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for today. Today was a good example of GBPUSD, EURGBP and EURUSD with coordinated price action about their respective VRM levels.

So here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP and EURUSD. Weekly levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Predictions for VRM levels of EURGBP and EURUSD together with 10 other FX pairs can be found at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/

There were some large gaps between VRM levels to trade between.

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow.
Attached Thumbnails
2018-01-02-gbpusd-eurgbp-eurusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 2, 2018, 10:34pm   #53
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD predictions for 3rd January

gka started this thread I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 3rd January in New York.

Predictions for VRM levels of EURGBP and EURUSD together with 10 other FX pairs can be found at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/

Follow the link there to a description of the prediction format.
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 3, 2018, 7:58am   #54
 
Pat494's Avatar
Joined Mar 2004
Does your indicator do indexes ?
If so, perhaps you would like to win some money on the competition thread ?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...18-prizes.html
__________________
Love your own area.
Long live NIMBYISM

for quality of life.

The Westcountry is being overrun with
grotty new estates

Last edited by Pat494; Jan 3, 2018 at 8:06am.
Pat494 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 3, 2018, 6:27pm   #55
gka
Joined Dec 2017
gka started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat494 View Post
Does your indicator do indexes ?
If so, perhaps you would like to win some money on the competition thread ?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...18-prizes.html
Thank you for your invite to the SP500 competition. I am investigating whether the VRM algo predicts indices as well. FX is easier because of arbitrage

GBPUSD X EURGBP = EURUSD.

So the components of this triplet have to orchestrate their movements about three VRM level predictions. Are the DJIA, COMP & SP500 all coordinated as well? That`s a good question.
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 3, 2018, 11:05pm   #56
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD results for Jan 3

gka started this thread Last night I attached the predicted support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for today.

Here are the results for GBPUSD. Weekly levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

High for GBPUSD today was the weekly level 1.3608 calculated last weekend.

Low for today was the daily level 1.3506 calculated last night.

The weekly level 1.3526 stopped the GBPUSD from rallying.

There were some large gaps between VRM levels to trade between.

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow.
Attached Thumbnails
2018-01-03-gbpusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 3, 2018, 11:08pm   #57
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD predictions for 4th January

gka started this thread I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 4th January in New York.

Predictions for VRM levels of 12 other FX pairs can be found at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 4, 2018, 7:57am   #58
 
Pat494's Avatar
Joined Mar 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by gka View Post
Thank you for your invite to the SP500 competition. I am investigating whether the VRM algo predicts indices as well. FX is easier because of arbitrage

GBPUSD X EURGBP = EURUSD.

So the components of this triplet have to orchestrate their movements about three VRM level predictions. Are the DJIA, COMP & SP500 all coordinated as well? That`s a good question.
Yes as a matter of fact .
There is the average and the weighted average which assesses the past results of each player.
__________________
Love your own area.
Long live NIMBYISM

for quality of life.

The Westcountry is being overrun with
grotty new estates
Pat494 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 4, 2018, 10:52pm   #59
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD, EURGBP and EURUSD results 4th January

gka started this thread Last night I attached the predicted support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for today.

Here are the results for the triplet GBPUSD, EURGBP and EURUSD.

Weekly levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

EURUSD hit weekly VRM level 1.2083.
EURGBP hit daily VRM level 0.8922
GBPUSD was supported by weekly VRM level 1.3537.

There were some large gaps between VRM levels to trade between.

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow.
Attached Thumbnails
2018-01-04-gbpusd-eurgbp-eurusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Jan 4, 2018, 10:54pm   #60
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD predictions for 5th January

gka started this thread I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 5th January in New York.

Predictions for VRM levels of EURGBP and EURUSD and 10 other FX pairs can be found at

https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/
Attached Thumbnails
gbpusd.png  
gka is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Support and resistance levels tom2806 First Steps 2 Apr 20, 2015 5:49pm
Support And Resistance Levels FX Spreadbetteur Forex 12 Sep 30, 2011 1:36am
Support and Resistance Levels robocod General Trading Chat 17 Feb 23, 2011 3:17am
FTSE - Support and Resistance levels technicalanalyst Indices 5 Aug 24, 2009 12:10am
DOW levels for 06/25- support and resistance technicalanalyst Indices 0 Jun 25, 2009 7:49am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)