Eur/usd

This is a discussion on Eur/usd within the Forex forums, part of the Markets category; I think it's time for selling EURUSD...

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Old Apr 5, 2018, 11:03am   #31
 
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I think it's time for selling EURUSD
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Old Apr 5, 2018, 2:41pm   #32
gka
Joined Dec 2017
EURUSD has been bearish for the last 5 weeks

The EURUSD has been long term bearish for the last 5 weeks according to the VRM. See attached left chart green channel which is the long term trend. The EURUSD has closed the week below the middle of the green channel for the last 5 weeks so not good to buy.

See the first post of the following thread for document describing the VRM

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics
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eurusd.png  
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 8:55pm   #33
Joined Oct 2015
Speculators continue to sell the dollar. According to the latest CFTC data, the volume of their net short position in U.S. currency reached $28.2 billion (+$1 billion) a week before April 17, which is a record since 2011. The main changes in positioning have occurred within the framework of the trends that have developed in recent weeks.

The volume of net long in the Euro rose to a new historic high of $23.4 billion, slightly higher than the end of January.

Net long position on the pound increased by $449 million (speculators opened new purchases and sales), but the decline in the British currency in the second half of last week, probably prompted bulls to close part of the fresh long.

Positioning in the loonie has undergone minimal changes. In recent weeks, speculators were in no hurry to buy the canadian dollar, despite the growth of its rate, and now bears can again start to sell actively.

During the reporting period, the speculators sold aussi quite actively, but it is worth noting that since the end of last year, the positioning in it is quite neutral. Therefore, it is too early to say whether the growth of bearish sentiment is a harbinger of the beginning of the downtrend.

Speculative positioning in the franc and the yen has hardly changed.

The net long position in the Mexican peso remains high by historical standards.
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Old May 2, 2018, 11:03pm   #34
Joined Apr 2014
The drop continues on the EURUSD, this time falling below the 1.2000 level and it could reach the 1.1900 level. The bottom is still not in sight.
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Old May 5, 2018, 2:26am   #35
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The EURUSD keeps dropping

The EURUSD accelerated its bearish momentum during today´s session after the NFP numbers suported the Dollar. The pair may drop to the 1.1900 level.
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Old May 21, 2018, 5:34pm   #36
Joined Apr 2014
EURUSD in possible correction

The EURUSD drops near the 1.1700 zone, but rallies and leaves behind a long lower shadow on its daily candle, forming what it appears to be a hammer formation. If tomorrows daily candle is bullish, then the EURUSD may start a bullish correction.
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Old May 21, 2018, 7:51pm   #37
gka
Joined Dec 2017
EURUSD still bearish according to Volatility Response Model

Please see attached Volatility Response Model (VRM) chart

As of this week EURUSD is extremely bearish long term because it is below the long term trend channel bottom at 1.1862. Until EURUSD closes the week above the middle of this channel now at 1.2165 the EURUSD is long term bearish.

As of today the EURUSD is short term bearish below the middle of the short term trend channel at 1.186. Until the EURUSD closes the day above the middle of this channel EURUSD is short term bearish.
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Old May 23, 2018, 12:00am   #38
gka
Joined Dec 2017
GBPUSD followed EURUSD today

Here are the results for GBPUSD, EURGBP & EURUSD.

Weekly Volatility Response Model (VRM) levels in the top 30 minute charts, daily VRM levels in the bottom 30 minute charts. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

GBPUSD followed EURUSD today starting at 4 am (GMT-4) when EURUSD launched from its lowest daily sentiment level at 1.1762.

Both arrived at their respective high levels 1.3487 and 1.1825 in the 5 am hour. And then fell for the rest of the day.
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2018-05-22-gbpusd-eurgbp-eurusd-30min.png  
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Old May 23, 2018, 8:25am   #39
Joined Oct 2015
i'm afraid the thread has been infected with the VRM virus
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Old May 23, 2018, 9:09am   #40
Joined Jan 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by fxstrategist View Post
The EURUSD drops near the 1.1700 zone, but rallies and leaves behind a long lower shadow on its daily candle, forming what it appears to be a hammer formation. If tomorrows daily candle is bullish, then the EURUSD may start a bullish correction.
Please put some screenshot so I can understand your TA.
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Old May 30, 2018, 7:35am   #41
Joined May 2018
EURUSD has been in a downtrend more than one month. I'm only feel bad I didn't find my right place to sell too.
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 2:46am   #42
Joined Apr 2014
Retracement on the EURUSD

The EURUSD has retraced to the 1.1800 zone from where it may try to bounce to the downside., The 1.1900 level could be its next resistance in case of continuing higher and the 1.1700 level could be its closest support.
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 1:04pm   #43
 
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EURUSD Long

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/
EUR/USD has come under pressure today, and while it is easy to put this down to the technical resistance seen in the mid 1.1800's, there is still a tight correlation with the Bund-BTP (Germany vs Italy) spread which has widened out again as investors are again getting nervous over a potential EU exit - by Italy. Earlier this morning, Italy's Di Maio - new minister for economic development - said that they will ask for more funds from the EU budget and this seems to have stoked fresh concerns that renewed conflict with the EU heads may ensue, leading to a possible escalation of tensions with the EU commission and the major states. This looked to have abated earlier this week as the market focused on the ECB meeting next week, where the governing council look set to discuss the end of QE, and the markets were again getting excited over a possible announcement. Rate pricing for next year has also firmed, but rate/yield differentials will temper the impact this will have on the EUR vs USD, as we must not forget that the Fed are already in a tightening cycle which may steepen according to some analysts who are raising prospects of 4 hikes this year from 3 seen previously.
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 1:10pm   #44
 
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EURUSD Next week at the ECB meeting I think they may start to normalise but you just cannot trust Draghi. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/
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Old Jun 8, 2018, 9:43pm   #45
Joined Apr 2014
Fake breakout on the EURUSD

On the daily chart of the EURUSD we can see that the pair has left a long upper shadow on the daily candle above the 1.1800 level, but pulls back below that level, leaving behind a false breakout. The pair may consolidate around the 1.1800 level for now.
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